House price falls may well accelerate in 2009

Really2

dervish wrote: »

becuase those wanting to sell will cut prices so they can sell.

What an idiot! :mad:

Ignore htis muppet.

I know what he means.

If you want to sell somthing but no one can get finance no one can buy it. Thus no fall in price

Perhaps the only sales soon will be cash buyer
So there may be a massive fall or no fall but whatever happens it will be low numbers (transactions).
If only repos sell there may be a massive fall (on paper) for those but as soon as lending relaxes there will be equaly a massive rise as the people who wanted to move and those who wanted to buy can again.

If this is the senario how many times will you here the line when you say "no 20 only went for £150K" The EA answer will be "that was a reposession".

fatpig_2

Really2 wrote: »

I know what he means.

If you want to sell somthing but no one can get finance no one can buy it. Thus no fall in price



".

There's plenty of finance available. It's just that banks are only prepared to lend sensible multiples of someone's salary. The days of borrowing 10 times your annual salary are over, vendors need to wake up to that fact.

Conrad

Prices are set at the margins by those that HAVE TO SELL. All this talk of prices not reducing because owners wont take a hit is a side issue, as those people will not be effective market participants as they dont sell, so have little effect.

There are enough people that have to sell in this market.

As that mafia bloke (short - not danny davito) said in a film where he played a landlord - "there are 3 things that set the market price - deaths, divorce and destitution"

In my business role I come accross all manner of motivated sellers, and those with mortgage arrears are only part of the mix - there are many others that have to sell, such as the owner of a property falling into disrepair that dot have the funds to make the improvments.

Really2

fatpig wrote: »

There's plenty of finance available. It's just that banks are only prepared to lend sensible multiples of someone's salary. The days of borrowing 10 times your annual salary are over, vendors need to wake up to that fact.

I don't think the multiples are the problem either (most are now done on "affordability" rarther than a multiple)

25% deposit though is a very big ask and that is basicly the mortgage companies saying we are not going to lend. (unless you have a very big deposit)

I dont think vendors have to wake up to the fact of that. If they are not forced they are quiet within their rights to ask what they want if it does not sell they are obviously not that bothered.

Gorgeous_George

I think prices will fall until they reach 100 to 125 x the rentable value. At this point, investors with cash (earning reciord low interest rates) will snap up anything and everything available.

Current headline falls are largely the result of distressed sales only. As pent up demand returns (when credit unfreezes) prices will rise in line with credit availability.

My BTL is currently worth about £80K but market rent is just £475-ish and I charge £420 at the moment. I'd buy another if they reach £50K.

GG

skap7309

LydiaJ wrote: »

FTBs will not be rushing to buy now even if it does offer the opportunity to fix at a low rate, if they believe that the market has a lot further to fall. What good is it to fix at a low rate if doing it early means that the amount you borrow is tens of thousands of pounds more than you'd need to borrow to buy the same house in a year's time? That's why I'm not in a hurry to stop renting and buy just now, anyway.

FTB here. No rush to buy whatever the rate is at the moment. As you point out, why buy now when i can save myself thousands of pounds in 2009/2010?

skap7309

Conrad wrote: »

Prices are set at the margins by those that HAVE TO SELL. All this talk of prices not reducing because owners wont take a hit is a side issue, as those people will not be effective market participants as they dont sell, so have little effect.

There are enough people that have to sell in this market.

Exactly. This is cropping up more and more latley. Not selling as prices fall.

So, let me get this straight......

No-one sells houses. Fine. Bit of a problem there though. They die. Their house gets sold. Kinda getting the picture here?

Really2

skap7309 wrote: »

Exactly. This is cropping up more and more latley. Not selling as prices fall.

So, let me get this straight......

No-one sells houses. Fine. Bit of a problem there though. They die. Their house gets sold. Kinda getting the picture here?

Not every one who does not market there house at the correct price will die instantly.

So yes the market is pants because demand is very low. (most on here will not buy until 2010 no mater what the fall is)
But why sell in a market and compete with reposessions and forced sellers for the few buyers out their if you do not need to sell?

StevieJ

skap7309 wrote: »

Exactly. This is cropping up more and more latley. Not selling as prices fall.

So, let me get this straight......

No-one sells houses. Fine. Bit of a problem there though. They die. Their house gets sold. Kinda getting the picture here?

Talk about dead mens shoes

StevieJ

Really2 wrote: »

Not every one who does not market there house at the correct price will die instantly.

So yes the market is pants because demand is very low. (most on here will not buy until 2010 no mater what the fall is)
But why sell in a market and compete with reposessions and forced sellers for the few buyers out their if you do not need to sell?

I for one would not dream of selling in this market, no rush to sell whatsovever.