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Debate House Prices
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House price falls may well accelerate in 2009
Comments
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Dithering_Dad wrote: »How can prices fall if no one can buy them?
Even at record lows, there are still around 32,000 house loan approvals per month.
Post Office says they have 124 Postcode "areas" with 20 "districts" each. That's 2480 districts...
Makes about 13 transaction per postcode district, per month. Over the course of a year - and most people seem to think its got at least a year to run - that's 156 transactions per district.
Would have thought that's not far away from being enough to give a pretty firm impression on house prices across a district.
Though not conclusive, granted.
Strangely, those waiting for the crash to be confirmed/continued will be waiting for numbers to grow so there can be greater spread/confidence in the stats - while at the same time, those who think it could soon be over, are also waiting for increased sales numbers as that could presage a change of sentiment.0 -
FoxtonsRIP wrote: »Basic Economics. The house prices keep failing until a point at which people can afford to buy them.
Basic economics = Banks lend 95% at reasonble rates = Market bottom :beer:
People can afford (and are waiting on the sidelines) at BR + 2% if the banks will lend, otherwise deposits will be saved fairly soon. One thing is for sure FTB's will not wish to miss the opportunity of buying and fixing at these levels. The people who already have mortgages will be celebrating the lower rates so why should they drastically reduce the prices of their houses if they wish to move?
'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
Basic economics = Banks lend 95% at reasonble rates = Market bottom :beer:
People can afford (and are waiting on the sidelines) at BR + 2% if the banks will lend, otherwise deposits will be saved fairly soon. One thing is for sure FTB's will not wish to miss the opportunity of buying and fixing at these levels. The people who already have mortgages will be celebrating the lower rates so why should they drastically reduce the prices of their houses if they wish to move?
Erm...not if the banks haven't got enough funds on deposit to service all the people who wish to take on a mortage, hence stricter lending criteria, valuations at levels that protect the interests of the banks etc.
The "Monopoly money" has run out. It has to be real, for the time being.
If/when that changes...will be a new ball game.0 -
Cannon_Fodder wrote: »Erm...not if the banks haven't got enough funds on deposit to service all the people who wish to take on a mortage, hence stricter lending criteria, valuations at levels that protect the interests of the banks etc.
The "Monopoly money" has run out. It has to be real, for the time being.
If/when that changes...will be a new ball game.
Of course they have enough funds, they are looking to build margins.'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
Ofcourse house price falls will accelerate / continue to fall throughout in 09 , Cast iron certainty, what amazes me is how a few here are still in denial about it ... Its not even worthy of a serious debate anymore.... The macro Economics of it all are so big & got so seriously out of hand that nothing can stop it ... End of !!!0
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Ofcourse house price falls will accelerate / continue to fall throughout in 09 , Cast iron certainty, what amazes me is how a few here are still in denial about it ... Its not even worthy of a serious debate anymore.... The macro Economics of it all are so big & got so seriously out of hand that nothing can stop it ... End of !!!
If only things were so predictable:cool:In case you hadn't already worked it out - the entire global financial system is predicated on the assumption that you're an idiot:cool:0 -
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Basic economics = Banks lend 95% at reasonble rates = Market bottom :beer:
People can afford (and are waiting on the sidelines) at BR + 2% if the banks will lend, otherwise deposits will be saved fairly soon. One thing is for sure FTB's will not wish to miss the opportunity of buying and fixing at these levels. The people who already have mortgages will be celebrating the lower rates so why should they drastically reduce the prices of their houses if they wish to move?
FTBs will not be rushing to buy now even if it does offer the opportunity to fix at a low rate, if they believe that the market has a lot further to fall. What good is it to fix at a low rate if doing it early means that the amount you borrow is tens of thousands of pounds more than you'd need to borrow to buy the same house in a year's time? That's why I'm not in a hurry to stop renting and buy just now, anyway.Do you know anyone who's bereaved? Point them to https://www.AtaLoss.org which does for bereavement support what MSE does for financial services, providing links to support organisations relevant to the circumstances of the loss & the local area. (Link permitted by forum team)
Tyre performance in the wet deteriorates rapidly below about 3mm tread - change yours when they get dangerous, not just when they are nearly illegal (1.6mm).
Oh, and wear your seatbelt. My kids are only alive because they were wearing theirs when somebody else was driving in wet weather with worn tyres.
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FTBs will not be rushing to buy now even if it does offer the opportunity to fix at a low rate, if they believe that the market has a lot further to fall. What good is it to fix at a low rate if doing it early means that the amount you borrow is tens of thousands of pounds more than you'd need to borrow to buy the same house in a year's time? That's why I'm not in a hurry to stop renting and buy just now, anyway.
If the rate of acceleration of house price falls slows would that make you consider buying?0 -
FTBs will not be rushing to buy now even if it does offer the opportunity to fix at a low rate, if they believe that the market has a lot further to fall. What good is it to fix at a low rate if doing it early means that the amount you borrow is tens of thousands of pounds more than you'd need to borrow to buy the same house in a year's time? That's why I'm not in a hurry to stop renting and buy just now, anyway.
Your opinion, my opinion is that interest rates will be a lot higher not that long from now, house prices will have fallen a general 20% ( much larger falls will be/are available for people who go out and find them).'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0
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