Scottish prices falling now

mitchaa

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I did a month on month check on Aberdeen for the last 20 months using the Registers of Scotland Executive Agency (RoSEA) figures and saw that there were monthly increases and monthly decreases in excess of 8%.

In my opinion, this lead me to believe that the figures can be skewed by the types of property sold in that period.

My research has showed that Aberdeen prices are down from peak, but are pretty much stagnant when viewed as an average over the longer term i.e. 2007 average was £171k
2008 average is £174k
2007 & 2008 average is £172k

All data can be found at http://www.ros.gov.uk/productsandservices/lpd_stats.html



Latest figures released from the RoSEA are for September.
September 2008 = £169,072
June 2008 = £174,699

3 month difference = -3.22%, not -9.1% as calculated by Lloyds

There is no argument that house prices in Aberdeen are on the decline at the moment.

A copy and paste of ISTL post in the other thread. Some people need to delve deeper into things.

Do Lloyds TSB/C+G have any credibility in comparison to the RoSEA?...Not a dicky bird

Jonbvn

What happens to house prices in Aberdeen is obviously related to what is happening in the oil industry. With oil at around $50/barrel I would not expect huge job losses. However, if it goes below $40, I would expect some of the majors to start looking at shelving projects. This would mean job losses and no doubt falling house prices.

LilacPixie

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

They lagged behind, but have not proved immune.

In Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow, there have been BIG falls in the last quarter:

Edinburgh +1.9% -7.3% Aberdeen -0.3% -9.1% Dundee -0.2% -11.9%


On the other hand some areas are up:


Glasgow +4.1% +6.4%

And to help put paid to all that "only nasty places will fall" stuff, the report insterestingly stated that flats are holding their price better than semis, and semis better than detached.


The spokesman added that flats continued to show the most robust performance, with a quarterly fall of 1.1% and an underlying annual increase of 4.7%.
Sales of these lower-priced properties was continuing to hold up well, the spokesman said, offering some explanation for the quarterly rise in Glasgow prices.
However, prices of detached houses fell by 5.6% in the quarter while prices of semi-detached properties fell by 3.5%.
Scottish house prices have suffered their biggest quarterly fall for at least 16 years, according to research by Lloyds TSB.
The bank's Scottish House Price Monitor showed the average domestic property dropped in value by 4% in the three months to 31 October.
It said the fall was the largest in the 16-year history of the monitor.
House prices have risen by 4.9% overall this year - a big reduction on the 9.3% increase reported last year.


The number of house sales also declined by 43% on the same period last year, the research showed.
Lloyds TSB said the average mix-adjusted Scottish house price was now £165,398.
A spokesman for the bank said: "The market is becoming more differentiated with Glasgow reporting a quarterly rise while Edinburgh, Dundee and Aberdeen all show falls in the quarter.
"Outside the main cities, the south east, excluding Edinburgh, reports a modest quarterly rise while the other areas are all showing quarterly falls."



http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7727238.stm

It was only a matter of time.

dopester

SingleSue wrote: »

I must admit to having a look at rightmove last night using the property bee tool to see what prices were doing in Aberdeen.

It seems to me that most Aberdeen property for sale doesn't appear on Rightmove.

That most of the Estate Agents up in Aberdeen don't pay the fees to list on Rightmove.

mitchaa

dopester wrote: »

It seems to me that most Aberdeen property for sale doesn't appear on Rightmove.

That most of the Estate Agents up in Aberdeen don't pay the fees to list on Rightmove.

You are correct Dopester.

The majority of estate agents are signed up to the www.aspc.co.uk website

Edinburgh www.espc.co.uk
Dundee www.tspc.co.uk (Tayside)
Glasgow https://www.gspc.co.uk

mystic_trev

DESPERATE house sellers are to hold a multi-million-pound clearance sale tomorrow.

More than £16million worth of properties will be up for grabs. And £3.7million - or 22.5 per cent - will be wiped off their value.

About 80 homes in east and west central Scotland will be sold at knockdown prices. Some will have up to 40 per cent discounts and almost £100,000 off.

The sale will be on a first-come, first-serve basis, with sellers looking for quick cash sales. If buyers conclude missives on the day, they will get up to an extra £5000 off.

Leading developers, building firms and property investors are taking part in the one-day sale in a bid to ease their slump.

It comes after new figures showed a 41 per cent slump in the number of house sales across the country.

It has also been revealed prices have dropped four per cent in the last quarter. Tomorrow's sale is being staged by estate agents Countrywide in Glasgow.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/editors-choice/2008/11/14/knock-down-houses-86908-20893434/

mitchaa

Jonbvn wrote: »

What happens to house prices in Aberdeen is obviously related to what is happening in the oil industry. With oil at around $50/barrel I would not expect huge job losses. However, if it goes below $40, I would expect some of the majors to start looking at shelving projects. This would mean job losses and no doubt falling house prices.

You are forgetting 1 thing

The industry is severely undermanned. Granted their astronomical profits will dwindle but they cant lay off workers they dont have.

We are 30% undermanned in my dept, we just cant recruit the expertise as a lot of the expertise is moving worldwide and earning tax free or 2x/3x what they are in the North Sea.

House prices in Aberdeen are falling yes, just not at the same level as some of its comparables south of the border. Edinburgh appears to be holding fairly well, but then it is the capital.

mitchaa

mystic_trev wrote: »

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/editors-choice/2008/11/14/knock-down-houses-86908-20893434/

I was just about to say that:rotfl:

No-one wants to live in Glasgow. (Murder capital of Europe, Life expectancy in the 50's, religion running riot with the green and blue sides of Glasgow, its poverty levels, its unemployment rates)

It's a shi*hole in other words:rotfl:

(Apologies to the people from the west coast, i'm sure there are nice parts;) )

mitchaa

There are some houses just stupidly overpriced in Aberdeen, this 1 for example

http://www.aspc.co.uk/cgi-bin/public/SINGLE?ID=264256

Needs to fall by about 50% in my eyes especially where you can get 4bed detached houses in the area for £250k already

Cannon_Fodder

You haven't answered why East Dunbartonshire should have a 10%+ YoY, when Aberdeen is -4%...is there Oil just north of Glasgow?

Or what effect leaving out Million pound properties has on the stats.

Or why Spring 08 RoS figures show +7% YoY, and has dwindled to 0.1% in six months.

We know Scotland started later. Fair enough.

In another 6 months the previous +ves will be out of the stats, replaced with -ves, and then you'll be in the same boat as England & Wales, with double-digit drops across the board.

Only a year behind, so longer still to fall - especially when the Scottish banks redundancies start to filter through.