Scottish prices falling now

SingleSue

I am actually half Scottish (dad was born near Glasgow) but have rarely travelled that far up the country (if would give me a bloody nose! :rotfl: ) but when I have it has been to the Lothian area and I can say I have always been made to feel extremely welcomed.

Even if my friends call me a southern softie and then proceed to moan about the cold whilst I am still ok!

damanpunk

Jonbvn wrote: »

What happens to house prices in Aberdeen is obviously related to what is happening in the oil industry. With oil at around $50/barrel I would not expect huge job losses. However, if it goes below $40, I would expect some of the majors to start looking at shelving projects. This would mean job losses and no doubt falling house prices.

I've seen some companies shelving projects but I've seen others (brownfield mods) still willing to invest big sums to increase recovery. I guess they don't want to turn the taps off when the price is high so they want to add advanced technology while its low.If it does go down alot then the area is definately going to suffer big time.

In the meantime I'm doing my best to take advantage of my above average wage by overpaying my big mortgage!!

baby_boomer

Scotland on Sunday

Edinburgh annualised price falls accelerate from 7% in September to 11.4% according to the Edinburgh Solicitors Property Centre.

Jonbvn

mitchaa wrote: »

You are forgetting 1 thing

The industry is severely undermanned. Granted their astronomical profits will dwindle but they cant lay off workers they dont have.

We are 30% undermanned in my dept, we just cant recruit the expertise as a lot of the expertise is moving worldwide and earning tax free or 2x/3x what they are in the North Sea..

It is not so clear cut. If the oil price drops then those working overseas will also be adversely effected. I work in O&G also, and as you are aware it does tend to be feast or famine. I remember Houston in the mid-80's and the industry (and blood on the carpet) in 2000/2001 when oil was less than $20/bbl. Personally, I benefited massively from the low oil price in 2k, when I bought a property in an oil town (non-UK).

ad9898_3

If anyone thinks that Aberdeen is immune to falling house prices or rising unemployment, look at the graph below.






Production peaked in 1999, from then on, its only going one way

Generali

ad9898 wrote: »

If anyone thinks that Aberdeen is immune to falling house prices or rising unemployment, look at the graph below.



Production peaked in 1999, from then on, its only going one way

Just a thought. Given the way the oil price has gone, wouldn't the value of production have been greater last year than at the point of peak output?

Aberdeen house prices will of course drop like everywhere else but it's just a thought.

ad9898_3

Generali wrote: »

Just a thought. Given the way the oil price has gone, wouldn't the value of production have been greater last year than at the point of peak output?

Aberdeen house prices will of course drop like everywhere else but it's just a thought.

Its possible, Brent crude was around $10-15 a barrel in '99. The North Sea was producing 6.4 million barrels a day in '99(UK/Norway/Denmark), thats is projected to fall to 2.3 million by 2010.

IveSeenTheLight

ad9898 wrote: »

If anyone thinks that Aberdeen is immune to falling house prices or rising unemployment, look at the graph below.

Production peaked in 1999, from then on, its only going one way

Firstly. no-body has said Aberdeen is immune

Aberdeen is not restricted to operations in the North Sea.
Currently I am working on projects in South East Asia, West Africa and the Mediteranian / Red Sea.
Have you looked at graphs for those areas?
I recall South East Asia increased something like 600% last year.

There is not enough experience to cope with global production and Aberdeen personnel are utilised in projects throughout the world, not just the North Sea.

baby_boomer

Scotsman

Desperate Edinburgh sellers slashing £26K off their properties in a bid to sell

Reality is setting in, as people realise that banking redundancies are heading the capital's way.

baby_boomer

"HOUSE prices across Scotland will have fallen by 12% by the end of this year, taking prices back to 2006 levels.....

.....Edinburgh and Lothians area will have fallen by at least 12% by the end of the year.

"Prices were continuing to rise until July, but since then there has been a sharp downward shift in the market....

.....Property agents Pagan Osborne said prices have slipped by up to 15% even in former hotspots such as St Andrews.

"Local surveyors are valuing properties at 2006 prices..."


Scotland on Sunday