Scottish prices falling now

IveSeenTheLight

baby_boomer wrote: »

"HOUSE prices across Scotland will have fallen by 12% by the end of this year, taking prices back to 2006 levels.....

.....Edinburgh and Lothians area will have fallen by at least 12% by the end of the year.

"Prices were continuing to rise until July, but since then there has been a sharp downward shift in the market....

.....Property agents Pagan Osborne said prices have slipped by up to 15% even in former hotspots such as St Andrews.

"Local surveyors are valuing properties at 2006 prices..."


Scotland on Sunday

Octobers RoSEA figures are released.
Good news for Mitchaa

Aberdeen up 5.36% this month although still -1.12% YoY
Aberdeenshire up for the second month in a row at only 0.02% but still -2.1% YoY
Scotland is down 0.05% with a YoY of -2.74%

Guess for it to be true in the above post , theres going to be 10% drops in the next two months across Scotland

RoSEA October stats here

mitchaa

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Octobers RoSEA figures are released.
Good news for Mitchaa

Aberdeen up 5.36% this month although still -1.12% YoY
Aberdeenshire up for the second month in a row at only 0.02% but still -2.1% YoY
Scotland is down 0.05% with a YoY of -2.74%

Guess for it to be true in the above post , theres going to be 10% drops in the next two months across Scotland

RoSEA October stats here

Shall be interesting to see how this relates to Nationwides 1/4 reports due early January. Wonder if my sig will still be showing +ve 2yrs on;)

IveSeenTheLight

mitchaa wrote: »

Shall be interesting to see how this relates to Nationwides 1/4 reports due early January. Wonder if my sig will still be showing +ve 2yrs on;)

Your probably safe on the +ve 2 years on from Jan 2007, however the YoY may still be declining.
Still it will be interesting

baby_boomer

Scots warned that negative equity is on its way

Apparently Scotland largely escaped that fate in 1992.

"... the Scottish property market has been caught off guard by the speed and depth of this recession..."

IveSeenTheLight

baby_boomer wrote: »

Scots warned that negative equity is on its way

Apparently Scotland largely escaped that fate in 1992.

"... the Scottish property market has been caught off guard by the speed and depth of this recession..."

Just a few points on your link: -

1) According to RoSEA (Scotlands Land Register) Scotland as an average is down YoY by only 2.74%. Given that the UK is reported to be down around 14.8%, that would indicate that there must be area far worse affected than Scotland. From peak, the drop is 6.89%, although the Scotland average peak at £165,857 was seen in July 08, only 3 months previous to the current figures

2) You've included one quote

They warn the Scottish property market has been caught off guard by the speed and depth of this recession......

but what about the others in your link

But property experts insist there is no cause for alarm and the market will bounce back once the crisis in the banking sector abates

They are also confident that the housebuilding sector, which has seen a string of administrations in recent weeks, will start to recover from 2010 as the UK's housing shortage drives up demand

The housebuilding market will come back, there is no doubt. We simply do not have enough housing

Negative equity is only really of any relevance if you are in a situation where you have to move. The important thing here is people are required to take a long-term view. We shouldn't be pushed into looking at the very short term

Hunter still expects Scotland to fare better than the south of England

In short, the article is a poor piece of journalism with no link to where the statistics were borne from

The only statistic shown was apparently taken from the ESPC

The latest figures from ESPC show the average house price in Edinburgh fell 12% last month to £191,271. The number of houses sold was a staggering 70% down on November 2007.

The RoSEA figures are not released yet for November, so cannot comment on the total for November.
From the October figures it showed the average price was ££207,787 from 704 sales. In Oct 2007 it was £211,826 from 1,468 sales
Therefore a massive drop in sales by 52%. but the value dropped only 1.9% and oh so not so massive percentage.
Therefore it would appear that the number of properties sold is to a large extent irrelevant. The important figure is the average house price and that was YoY down only 1.9%

It's good to use relevant stats, not one that some guy is reported to believe.