Nationwide: prices down 1.4% in October, down 14.6% since last year

poppy10_2

http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/936442

StevieJ

poppy10 wrote: »

http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/936442

What a strange article.


Headline
Crisis hits home as house prices dive



The average house price in the latest quarter was £160,155, compared with £155,705 in the previous quarter.

mitchaa

The figures from official body Registers of Scotland showed the average house price in Scotland from July to September rose slightly to £160,155 from £159,000 last year.

The average house price in the latest quarter was £160,155, compared with £155,705 in the previous quarter.

I'm loving this:D

Scotland bucking the trend it would appear:p

(Data from a far more credible source than nationwide/halifax gubbings aswell )

The doom and gloom crew will have coronary;)

stephen163

This one adds some sense to the figures:

http://theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.2467673.0.Figures_reveal_huge_drop_in_the_number_of_houses_sold.php

mitchaa

stephen163 wrote: »

This one adds some sense to the figures:

http://theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.2467673.0.Figures_reveal_huge_drop_in_the_number_of_houses_sold.php

That is equally relative to the halifax/nationwide figures, sales are down all over the country, not just in Scotland.

It works both ways;)

poppy10_2

http://news.scotsman.com/scotland/House-prices-still-falling-insist.4689751.jp

House prices still falling, insist estate agents


Published Date: 13 November 2008
ESTATE agents say house prices in Edinburgh are continuing to fall, despite latest Government statistics indicating the Capital market was holding-up well.

The latest report from the Registers of Scotland yesterday showed that prices in the Capital rose by 0.2 per cent compared to the third quarter last year. This contrasts with a slump in the UK market, with prices around five per cent down on last year.

But David Marshall, business analyst with the Edinburgh Solicitors Property Centre, said sales were usually registered at least a month after they had been agreed. He said their recent figures showed that prices had fallen by 7.1 per cent in September, and 6.8 per cent in August.

He added: "I expect we will soon start to see the average price coming down."

Scott Brown, estate agency partner at Warners, a member of the Edinburgh and Lothians Property Group, said they were also seeing a fall.

He said: "There's no point in trying to talk the market up."

Cannon_Fodder

mitchaa wrote: »

I'm loving this:D
Scotland bucking the trend it would appear:p
(Data from a far more credible source than nationwide/halifax gubbings aswell )
The doom and gloom crew will have coronary;)

I'll bite. We've been here before..."where the selling price of the property lies between £20,000 and £1,000,000." So 200 plus, Million pound properties are EXCLUDED from the stats.

This takes large upwards jumps out of the stats, so your affordability looks attractive to business investors,

And on the way down, big drops are cushioned by Million pound properties turning to £900K thereby coming into the range and distorting the averages.

Try the full reports, they are much more enlightening;

"The total value of sales across Scotland registered during the quarter was just over £4 billion, a decrease of 17.1% over the previous quarter and a decrease of 41% over the same quarter last year."

That's the sign of things to come. And factor in the lag, having September stats only become available mid-November...

http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/2008_11_release.pdf
http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/2008_05_release.pdf

After 1st Quarter 08, reported in the May release, showing a 7.4% YoY increase, being now at 0.1% YoY means Scotland has LOST 7.3% in 6 months...

It has been acknowledged that Scotland started turning later. So, 7% down in the last 6 months is a reasonable pointer of where prices are heading.

Very impressive of East Dunbartonshire, which is strange as it has no Oil..."The highest year-on-year increase, at 10.8%, was in the East Dunbartonshire local authority area, where the average house price is now £211,824, up 7.5% from the last quarter."

Especially in comparison to "In Aberdeen, the average, at £176,464, was 4.3% down on the same time last year."

What's their special factor?

Generali

mitchaa wrote: »

That is equally relative to the halifax/nationwide figures, sales are down all over the country, not just in Scotland.

It works both ways;)

Time will tell what happens to proprty prices in Scotalnd/Aberdeen/23 McAccacia Avenue. I would be astounded if prices in Aberdeen can stand up in the face of oil prices falling 65% and house prices dropping quickly in most of the rest of the world.

If you would like to have a charity bet, I'll have £20 with you at evens. I reckon that nominal house prices as measured by the Land Registry will be lower than today in 2 years time in AB10 than they are today. I'll give you inflation because I'm a nice person.

poppy10_2

Probably deserves a new thread, but:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7727238.stm

Big fall in Scottish house prices

Scottish house prices have suffered their biggest quarterly fall for at least 16 years, according to research by Lloyds TSB.
The bank's Scottish House Price Monitor showed the average domestic property dropped in value by 4% in the last three months alone.
However on an annual basis prices are still higher on average than a year ago.

Prices in Aberdeen are down 9.1% in the last quarter.

IveSeenTheLight

poppy10 wrote: »

Prices in Aberdeen are down 9.1% in the last quarter. (According to Llyods TSB)

I did a month on month check on Aberdeen for the last 20 months using the Registers of Scotland Executive Agency (RoSEA) figures and saw that there were monthly increases and monthly decreases in excess of 8%.

In my opinion, this lead me to believe that the figures can be skewed by the types of property sold in that period.

My research has showed that Aberdeen prices are down from peak, but are pretty much stagnant when viewed as an average over the longer term i.e. 2007 average was £171k
2008 average is £174k
2007 & 2008 average is £172k

All data can be found at http://www.ros.gov.uk/productsandservices/lpd_stats.html

poppy10 wrote: »

Prices in Aberdeen are down 9.1% in the last quarter. (According to Llyods TSB)

Latest figures released from the RoSEA are for September.
September 2008 = £169,072
June 2008 = £174,699

3 month difference = -3.22%, not -9.1% as calculated by Lloyds

There is no argument that house prices in Aberdeen are on the decline at the moment.