Prices to bounce back ... in 2023

Realy

alared wrote: »

The average price of a house in the UK will not return to its 2007 peak until 2023, a leading academic said yesterday.
Andrew Clare, professor of asset management at Cass business school in London, said the housing market would get "a lot worse" before it started to pick up.

Thanks to the OP for the above quote and link to the report.

The key words being in the first line:
"will not return to its 2007 peak until 2023"

I can remember the FTSE peaking at 7000 in Dec 1999 and it`s still not reached it`s peak again eight years later.
Currently hovering around 4000.

So it seems quite feasible to me the same could apply to property prices.

The report as got more holes in it than a second hand dart board which have been done to death on this thread.
One being in real terms the house would only be worth the equiverlent of £92K if you take in to account the 5% wage inflation(£199K -5% repeated 15 times) they talk about.

If you belive it good luck.
I have also got some magic beans they are magic a top academic told me so.;)

carolt

And why couldn't the house be worth 92K? - seems spot on to me in relation to average earnings.

Another thread has predictions for 2 years away, and I predicted prices of 120-130K.

And that's after only 2 years, following one of the biggest bubbles in history.

Seems highly likely prices will continue to fall for some years, and by 2023 have returned to those nominal levels.

After all, in the last crash, it took about 10 years or more, depending where you were in the country, for houses to return to 1989 nominal levels. As this boom was higher, I'd expect it to take a little bit longer.

alared

Some people have got their heads well and truly stuck in the sand.
They believe "it`ll all be over by Christmas"

---

IT WILL NOT.
Look at yesterday`s unemployment figures and that doesn`t include all the banking and city jobs that are going to go.
When people lose their jobs,they can`t afford to pay their mortgage,they get repossessed,which in turn floods more property onto the market.
A program on the TV the other night showed people at the property auctions bidding for "bargains" but because they were not reaching the reserve price they couldn`t be sold.
They were trying to make a deal AFTER the auction was over.
People are putting their houses into auctions and aren`t getting their reserve,but they still can`t believe that the bubble has burst.
Reality takes a while to set in,we`re in for hard times.

stevetodd

alared wrote: »

Some people have got their heads well and truly stuck in the sand.
They believe "it`ll all be over by Christmas"

---

IT WILL NOT.
Look at yesterday`s unemployment figures and that doesn`t include all the banking and city jobs that are going to go.
When people lose their jobs,they can`t afford to pay their mortgage,they get repossessed,which in turn floods more property onto the market.
A program on the TV the other night showed people at the property auctions bidding for "bargains" but because they were not reaching the reserve price they couldn`t be sold.
They were trying to make a deal AFTER the auction was over.
People are putting their houses into auctions and aren`t getting their reserve,but they still can`t believe that the bubble has burst.
Reality takes a while to set in,we`re in for hard times.

Can't see any real bottom for at least 2 years myself

manchestermike_2

alared wrote: »

A program on the TV the other night showed people at the property auctions bidding for "bargains" but because they were not reaching the reserve price they couldn`t be sold.
They were trying to make a deal AFTER the auction was over.
People are putting their houses into auctions and aren`t getting their reserve,but they still can`t believe that the bubble has burst.

That happens in auctions all the time, property, artwork anything. It's the way they've always worked.

alared

manchestermike wrote: »

That happens in auctions all the time, property, artwork anything. It's the way they've always worked.

I think your missing the point.
People (sometimes in desperation)have put their property up for auction, because that`s the only way they think they can sell it quickly, BUT even then they can`t sell it at their already reduced price.
So a deal has to be struck "behind closed doors" in some cases.
Depends how desperate owners are to sell.
Earlier last year this problem didn`t exist,people were bidding through the roof to get property.

manchestermike_2

alared wrote: »

I think your missing the point.
People (sometimes in desperation)have put their property up for auction, because that`s the only way they think they can sell it quickly, BUT even then they can`t sell it at their already reduced price.
So a deal has to be struck "behind closed doors" in some cases.
Depends how desperate owners are to sell.
Earlier last year this problem didn`t exist,people were bidding through the roof to get property.

At least they've got interest than and can negotiate. People shouldn't get themselves in a position where they are that desperate to sell

alared

manchestermike wrote: »

At least they've got interest than and can negotiate. People shouldn't get themselves in a position where they are that desperate to sell

There comes a time and at a certain point when EVERYTHING is a bargain,that`s when the bottom is reached.

People "capitulate" ,they get out at whatever the cost, simply because they`ve had enough and give in.
In the late eighties / early nineties people walked into banks/building societies and just handed their house keys over and walked out again.
I`ve no sympathy for speculators that got their fingers burnt.
Some people actually "invested" in property and never even went to inspect the properties.
But anyone unfortunate enough to lose their job and their homes in the process is a different matter.
Afterall they only bought the property to LIVE in.

Realy

Lets face it in 15 years time it could be the start, middle or end of the next bubble.

Anyone predicting 15 years ahead is notradamus territory.
Wars, new technology etc can all happen and will shape the world and its markets.
I surgest anyone who belives it keep it and opens it up again in 15 years time so you can:rotfl: .

dopester

Realy wrote: »

Lets face it in 15 years time it could be the start, middle or end of the next bubble.

Anyone predicting 15 years ahead is notradamus territory.
Wars, new technology etc can all happen and will shape the world and its markets.
I surgest anyone who belives it keep it and opens it up again in 15 years time so you can:rotfl: .

Sort of agree with you. What is that law again about technology/processors doubling in power every... x-years. Providing their isn't a collapse of society in the downturn, things could be very different in 15 years - our whole way of life and living.

A short story I read recently was called The Midas Plague... where the technologically advanced society is churning out so much production in cheap abundance.

On entering work at a young age and low level... everyone is given a huge mansion with all the mod-cons, but are required to consume x-items of clothes, items like gym machines, garden equipment, furniture, entertainment/theatre, a week/month - which is a hard and stressful task.

All disposed items are checked for use / randomly inspected for suitable wear and tear. If you don't meet your allocation in any section, you are hit by penalties of more to consume the following month - a stressful nightmare, and one the lead guy found a way around one drunken night.

The challenge of that society was to move up a level, where you have less to consume, until eventually approaching retirement you have a smaller house and just an fairly relaxed allocation of everything to consume.