Prices to bounce back ... in 2023

Chris2685

I would probably buy when there is somewhere affordable for me (probably a 2 bed flat/terrace, but preferably a 3 bed house). I think I would pay £150k for a 3 bed house, and maybe £120k for a 2 bed in the South East.

pickledpink

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

Dunno about 40% drops, but I'll happily take HPI in line with average incomes forever.

Out of interest, at what %age drop will you be buying carol and once you have bought (and I guess this goes out to !!!!!! and the rest), what will happen to our beloved House Price board? No one will be wanting HPC anymore and we'll all agree and be friends

Carolt should just continue to pay rent for her lodgings IMO. She's far too old to get onto the first rung of the property ladder...............it wouldn't be worth it if she only gets to own her own place when she's in her 70's.:money:

I can't understand why she never bought in the last crash..................maybe that's why she's so bitter - cos she's lost out BIG TIME!:p

nobblyned

God, not another insulated academic that thinks that futures contracts are predictions of the future!!! (And I've seen you use this argument before Carolt!)

Futures contracts are just reflections of the supply/demand balance of people putting money down on future prices. They may be hedgers, speculators, STRs, anyone, the balance could lie anywhere. What they are not is predictions of the future, and they are notoriously poor predictors of the future.

Let me take the Brent forward curve as an example, it has been in strong upward contango for the forward three months since at least July. i.e. in your terms the forward curve has been continuously predicting that crude prices will rise by $3-5/bbl in the following 3 months continuously since July to now (it still is).

And what has happened? Crude has halved in value.

Use of futures contracts to predict future events = zero
Use of futures as an instrument to hedge against and or make money from future price events = priceless.

Oh, and as for the assumption that prices will then rise smoothly in pace with wage inflation - yeah, because that's ever happened before:rolleyes:

Just another academic drawing a random line and trying to get their name in the paper, predictions based on these foundations have no more credence than mine or yours. Trouble is, dress it up as some psuedo science and attach the words 'top academic' to it, and hey presto it becomes fact.

Heyman_2

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

........ and we'll all agree and be friends

I love how you put a there instead of a .

:rotfl:

Austin_Allegro

Seeing as the majority of British people (including many in the government) still don't seem to grasp the idea that property is overpriced because of an insane debt bubble, and are still going on about 'small island, growing population, Brits want to own a home, supply and demand, innit' etc ad infinitum, I think we can safely say that as soon as the banks are able to sufficiently recapitalise, then the madness will start all over again until the whole sorry system goes pop for the final time...I doubt it will be any sooner than 2 or 3 years though.

alared

stevetodd wrote: »

That's not how I remember it, I seem to recall that prices starting falling about summer 89 to the bottom in summer 95, that's only 6 years, before they started rising again. I bought 5 properties 91-93 so I was watching carefully at the time.

And during this time interest rates hit about 12% at one point I think, perhaps even higher

The recent house price boom started in 2001/2002.

A relative of mine bought in Sept 2001 just as the boom started and up `til last year had doubled their money on the property.
But doubling their money means nothing as they bought the house to LIVE in,not SPECULATE like your B to L brigade,who have now had their a*ses well and truly burnt.

Dithering_Dad

Heyman wrote: »

I love how you put a there instead of a .

:rotfl:

lol, well it'd be pretty dull in here if we were all mates

stevetodd

alared wrote: »

The recent house price boom started in 2001/2002.

A relative of mine bought in Sept 2001 just as the boom started and up `til last year had doubled their money on the property.
But doubling their money means nothing as they bought the house to LIVE in,not SPECULATE like your B to L brigade,who have now had their a*ses well and truly burnt.

The real value was buying in the mid 90's, the dates I quoted were correct, prices did start picking up in the (very) late summer of 1995. All landlords haven't been burnt, I'm still here waiting to buy again when I think the price is right, won't be for at least a year though, I suspect.

alared

stevetodd wrote: »

That's not how I remember it, I seem to recall that prices starting falling about summer 89 to the bottom in summer 95, that's only 6 years, before they started rising again. I bought 5 properties 91-93 so I was watching carefully at the time.
And during this time interest rates hit about 12% at one point I think, perhaps even higher

I`m willing to bet that not only did you catch the market at the bottom to buy, but also sold your five properties last year at the top of the market as well. :T :T :T :T :T

GracieP

Chris2685 wrote: »

I would say that peoples views on home ownership ARE changing. Last year you would not have caught me saying I would rather rent than buy. Now that I have looked into it a bit more, I know that rent is not dead money and buying and owning your own home is not the be all and end all. If house prices rise at a regular rate, say the rate of inflation (once things have settled a bit) I would say that you're not really any better off mortgaging yourself up to your eyeballs than you would be renting and saving the difference each month in order to buy outright in the future, or just carry on renting.

+1, except I changed my mind on it nearly 2 years ago.:D

I'd far rather own than rent, however it's not worth owning at any cost. I could afford to buy a house now and have a reasonable mortgage. But by renting we are better off and can live in a better area. So as long as I am better off renting I won't be buying again. Thankfully though, I can see buying becoming a reasonable option in the next 2-3 years.