Prices to bounce back ... in 2023

Heyman_2

Realy wrote: »

Lets face it in 15 years time it could be the start, middle or end of the next bubble.

Anyone predicting 15 years ahead is notradamus territory.

Or, one could say, Crystal Ball territory, hmmm Realy? :rolleyes:

Realy

Heyman wrote: »

Or, one could say, Crystal Ball territory, hmmm Realy? :rolleyes:

No I am not crossing your hand with silver.:rolleyes:

RDB

stevetodd wrote: »

Can't see any real bottom for at least 2 years myself

I dont know my wife is bending over in the kitchen right now so once again I have to disagree with you Steve

mrstinchcombe

alared wrote: »

Some people have got their heads well and truly stuck in the sand.
They believe "it`ll all be over by Christmas"

---

IT WILL NOT.
Look at yesterday`s unemployment figures and that doesn`t include all the banking and city jobs that are going to go.
When people lose their jobs,they can`t afford to pay their mortgage,they get repossessed,which in turn floods more property onto the market.
A program on the TV the other night showed people at the property auctions bidding for "bargains" but because they were not reaching the reserve price they couldn`t be sold.
They were trying to make a deal AFTER the auction was over.
People are putting their houses into auctions and aren`t getting their reserve,but they still can`t believe that the bubble has burst.
Reality takes a while to set in,we`re in for hard times.

I think this link sums that up

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1078255/Homeowners-denial-plummeting-property-values-30-cent-say-theyve-NOT-affected.html

MrDT

dopester wrote: »

What is that law again about technology/processors doubling in power every... x-years.

Offtopic useless info time! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law

It's ma fing, innit!

IveSeenTheLight

carolt wrote: »

After all, in the last crash, it took about 10 years or more, depending where you were in the country, for houses to return to 1989 nominal levels.

And in some areas it was only 1 year

carolt

Where?

IveSeenTheLight

carolt wrote: »

Where?

I've shown you many times carolt
Look at the following for example
http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/19_01_08PostTownsData3.xls

Edinburgh dropped in 1993, 1995 and 1997.
On all occations the price was higher the following year than it had dropped by previously.

_bankrupted

Looking at the last crash, it depends where you were in the country that dictated when in hit you etc.

The crash was precipated by the mad rush to get the joint MIRAS tax relief that was being removed at the end of August 88. After this date the crash started in the SE and spread outwards.

I bought my first house in the Midlands with a friend whilst we were at University and we completed in July '88. The house was valued at completion around 41k, we were paying the 34k price agreed in April!! We sold on graduation in '90 for 41k. The SE had been faling for those 2 years, but certainly the Milands had escaped. In '93 the value of the property was down to the 34k '88 price.

The SE bottom of the cycle was in 93-94 when I bought again. By '97 properties had increased 20% at least and by 2002 the peak (in real terms) was reached. I think for a lot of places in the SE the increase since 2002 has been only by wage inflation (5%) anually. There are of course exceptions.

From 2002 to 2007 it has been the rest of the UK that has seen doubling of house prices. And its these regions now seeing the large falls.

So this time around my perception is that it's the mirror crash of '88-'89 which started in London/SE and spread to the regions. Now it's the regions crashing and it's spreading to the SE. How ironic!

baby_boomer

The_government's_chief_stooge_on_the_housing_market wrote:

David Miles, professor of finance, Imperial College London, told MPs that house prices would stabilise after a further 5%-10% drop. He said a total 20% drop in house prices from their peak should be the point at which the housing market rejuvenates.

Fionnula Earley, chief economist at Nationwide, agreed that... Miles' figure was "feasible"."

Well she would, wouldn't she? :rotfl:

You can always rely on Gordon's old buddy, David, to go into bat for the government :rotfl: