Prices to bounce back ... in 2023

stevetodd

alared wrote: »

I`m willing to bet that not only did you catch the market at the bottom to buy, but also sold your five properties last year at the top of the market as well. :T :T :T :T :T

I detect an attitude from you but I will answer you in any case.

I already told you I bought in 91-93! that wasn't the bottom of the market (please read my post again you will see that early 95 was the bottom of the market!).

Also I didn't just buy those properties I also bought in 99(vg), 05 (ok) and 07 (not ok) and no I did not sell I am in the market for the long term. Although I have sold a couple of houses, no not the top as you sarcastically suggest (why, I don't know unless you are just bitter about something?) I sold in 2004 and I forget the first one probably 2000 (I think)

dopester

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Going by historical precedent (well, the last bust anyway), 2017 is a more realistic target for prices to get back to nominal 2007 levels. Taking into account inflation, probably 2019 for 'real' prices to recover.

So, only another 9 (11 if inflation adjusted) years to wait instead of 15. Hooray!

Previous crashes haven't taken down so many banks (forced them to be shunted to other groups for survival, or effectively nationalised).... banks which have seen quite a few events during history...

Obviously though this small little matter must just be a little hiccup, as overburdened taxpayers, already under debt and cost of living pressures, will pay for mass easy lending from now on, to keep prices relatively high and for the beautiful recovery before the crash has even taken hold.

Bank of Scotland / HBOS: opening for business in February 1696

Royal Bank of Scotland: chartered in 1727 as the Royal Bank of Scotland

neverdespairgirl

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

lol, well it'd be pretty dull in here if we were all mates

I don't agree! You are a muppet for saying so! So there! Ya boo sucks!

stevetodd

dopester wrote: »

Previous crashes haven't taken down so many banks (forced them to be shunted to other groups for survival, or effectively nationalised).... banks which have seen quite a few events during history...

Obviously though this small little matter must just be a little hiccup, as overburdened taxpayers, already under debt and cost of living pressures, will pay for mass easy lending from now on, to keep prices relatively high and for the beautiful recovery before the crash has even taken hold.

You are right these are interesting times, it might be dangerous to assume anything with regard to the previous crash, whilst not in the HPC camp I am going to tread carefully

carolt

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

Dunno about 40% drops, but I'll happily take HPI in line with average incomes forever.

Out of interest, at what %age drop will you be buying carol and once you have bought (and I guess this goes out to !!!!!! and the rest), what will happen to our beloved House Price board? No one will be wanting HPC anymore and we'll all agree and be friends

My answer pretty much reflects GracieP's - I'll buy once it is cheaper to buy than to rent. Which, logically will also be the point when other people, FTB's and landlords both, start to decide to buy.

So it will be roughly the bottom of the market.

Not too bothered about catching the very bottom, but I am very concerned with fixing my monthly payments so they are no higher than I would be paying in rent. I budget on what I spend a month out of monthly income - that's how I'll judge when it's time to buy.

That said, even if interest rates were to come down so low that borrowing larger amounts made sense as above, I'd still be very reluctant to borrow more than about 3 times joint income, as you still have to repay the capital!

But I reckon that is likely to be the case within a couple of years or less, even if prices stay static, as I return to considerably more hours at work once my youngest starts school.

So you shall see less of me anyway....

alared

stevetodd wrote: »

I detect an attitude from you but I will answer you in any case.

I already told you I bought in 91-93! that wasn't the bottom of the market (please read my post again you will see that early 95 was the bottom of the market!).

Also I didn't just buy those properties I also bought in 99(vg), 05 (ok) and 07 (not ok) and no I did not sell I am in the market for the long term. Although I have sold a couple of houses, no not the top as you sarcastically suggest (why, I don't know unless you are just bitter about something?) I sold in 2004 and I forget the first one probably 2000 (I think)

Not bitter about anything or attitorial.(is there such a word?:rotfl: )

You seem to be tying yourself in a knot about what you bought,when you bought,what you sold,when you sold,bought at the bottom,sold at the top,how many you bought,how many you sold,etc.

All I pointed out was if we can have a ten year boom,there`s no reason we can`t have a fifteen year bust.
Houses are to LIVE in

---

well mine is.

stevetodd

alared wrote: »

Not bitter about anything or attitorial.(is there such a word?:rotfl: )

You seem to be tying yourself in a knot about what you bought,when you bought,what you sold,when you sold,bought at the bottom,sold at the top,how many you bought,how many you sold,etc.

All I pointed out was if we can have a ten year boom,there`s no reason we can`t have a fifteen year bust.
Houses are to LIVE in

---

well mine is.

Look mate I am not looking for a pointless arguement (hopefully you aren't as I'm sure we both have better things to do) but for the record I am not tying myself in a knots. All I have said is what I bought and when (and sold)

Dithering_Dad

carolt wrote: »

My answer pretty much reflects GracieP's - I'll buy once it is cheaper to buy than to rent. Which, logically will also be the point when other people, FTB's and landlords both, start to decide to buy.

So it will be roughly the bottom of the market.

Not too bothered about catching the very bottom, but I am very concerned with fixing my monthly payments so they are no higher than I would be paying in rent. I budget on what I spend a month out of monthly income - that's how I'll judge when it's time to buy.

That said, even if interest rates were to come down so low that borrowing larger amounts made sense as above, I'd still be very reluctant to borrow more than about 3 times joint income, as you still have to repay the capital!

But I reckon that is likely to be the case within a couple of years or less, even if prices stay static, as I return to considerably more hours at work once my youngest starts school.

So you shall see less of me anyway....

Very sensible approach carol and I hope it works out for you. I bought my first house in 1995 which, after reading details on another thread, seems to have been the bottom of the market. I think my mortgage was around £250 pm mark! Wow, I can't wait for those days to return!

I was not as fortunate with my next house purchase as House prices had started to rise. I bought our family home in 2002 and we had an extension built in 2006 which pushed our mortgage up mightily.

Will you be able to afford a family home when you buy or will you be getting somewhere that's serviceable with a view to buying a larger home a few years later? If you do then you could end up in the same situation as us - we gained on the roundabout and lost on the slides . Depends on how long it takes the market to recover and start to boom again.

I'm hoping that while we may lose people in here once they buy, we will gain a few of you in the MFW board instead. I look forward to carolt and !!!!!! joining my MFi3 pt2 mortgage challenge in 2010 .

carolt

No - we'd only look to buy somewhere suitable for us now - we're no spring chickens, but equally our salaries (recession permitting) should be well above average. Basically, something similar to where we rent.

Good luck with the mortgage-free thing - obviously the way to go!

alared

The average price of a house in the UK will not return to its 2007 peak until 2023, a leading academic said yesterday.
Andrew Clare, professor of asset management at Cass business school in London, said the housing market would get "a lot worse" before it started to pick up.

Thanks to the OP for the above quote and link to the report.

The key words being in the first line:
"will not return to its 2007 peak until 2023"

I can remember the FTSE peaking at 7000 in Dec 1999 and it`s still not reached it`s peak again eight years later.
Currently hovering around 4000.

So it seems quite feasible to me the same could apply to property prices.