Prices to bounce back ... in 2023

StevieJ

Carol and Realy, I think you are both right, it is just a badly written article.

carolt

So - what's your job again, realy?

No - you prove where it says the 2023 figure is real. Or are you really arguing wage inflation is going to outpace general inflation?

One of us is definitely wrong on this, but unless you're predicting run-away wage inflation OR a reinflation of a ludicrous bubble, it's not me.

So - what is it you do for a job again?

carolt

StevieJ wrote: »

Carol and Realy, I think you are both right, it is just a badly written article.

How nice. A peacemaker.

Happy to leave it there, (unless realy grovels and capitulates, obviously, I'll graciously accept).

I'm sure I'm right, so is he.

So does anyone else have a comment on the article.

How about the 40% off within a couple of years bit?

All agree?

Realy

ad9898 wrote: »

I have no real idea when prices would get back to that level, however what I do think and it makes me shudder a little is this.. If the recession is shortish (say 1-2 years) and the banks feel confident again that their balance sheets are healthy, if they started lending 5x,6x,7x salaries again with 100% mortgages, many, many people would take them up, stupid, yes.... riduculous, certainly..... but don't over-estimate the intelligence of herd mentality.... its generally very low with extremely short memories.

This whole sorry affair could return by 2012

I think you won't see 100% mortgages until you see HPI at 10% again and that won't be for a long time.
But it will happen again one day, that is certain.

Realy

carolt wrote: »

How nice. A peacemaker.


How about the 40% off within a couple of years bit?

All agree?

In real terms yes, 30% nominal.;)

alared

After the crash in the late eighties it took nearly eleven years for house prices to start rising again which created the recent boom.

If this present "crisis" is going to be a great deal worse than the late eighties,then a fifteen year gap,in price rises, `til 2023 seems quite feasible and might be no bad thing.

chucky

Carol - the article is rubbish.

Just give it up please, you do make some good points and add balance to arguments sometimes. This isn't one of those times unfortunately.

StevieJ

alared wrote: »

After the crash in the late eighties it took nearly eleven years for house prices to start rising again which created the recent boom.

If this present "crisis" is going to be a great deal worse than the late eighties,then a fifteen year gap,in price rises, `til 2023 seems quite feasible and might be no bad thing.

The crash in the early 90s was caused by rising interest rates, we are currently facing falling interest rates. A slighly different animal.

stevetodd

alared wrote: »

After the crash in the late eighties it took nearly eleven years for house prices to start rising again which created the recent boom.

If this present "crisis" is going to be a great deal worse than the late eighties,then a fifteen year gap,in price rises, `til 2023 seems quite feasible and might be no bad thing.

That's not how I remember it, I seem to recall that prices starting falling about summer 89 to the bottom in summer 95, that's only 6 years, before they started rising again. I bought 5 properties 91-93 so I was watching carefully at the time.

And during this time interest rates hit about 12% at one point I think, perhaps even higher

Dithering_Dad

carolt wrote: »

How nice. A peacemaker.

Happy to leave it there, (unless realy grovels and capitulates, obviously, I'll graciously accept).

I'm sure I'm right, so is he.

So does anyone else have a comment on the article.

How about the 40% off within a couple of years bit?

All agree?

Dunno about 40% drops, but I'll happily take HPI in line with average incomes forever.

Out of interest, at what %age drop will you be buying carol and once you have bought (and I guess this goes out to !!!!!! and the rest), what will happen to our beloved House Price board? No one will be wanting HPC anymore and we'll all agree and be friends