the failure to build enough homes in recent years means uk house market could start a

chucky

all of these dates that we are all putting forward are fingers in the air stuff and we're simply guessing.

we don't know what the following factors will be: employment demand, inflation, consumer spending, wage rises, property demand or even supply. there are probably more too but they all factors that are unknowns to us.
you could even factor regional demands into this..

by the way...my gut feel is that the average house price falls will flatten out over the next few months and level then progress again. no idea which date though

geoffky

1 million houses empty and one million houses for sale on rightmove is not a shortage...

hethmar

Are there really 1 million houses empty? Habitable houses?

dopester

Conrad wrote: »

Investment physchology tells us the herd is usually wrong.
The herd thought prices would never fall - yet they did.
Now the herd thinks prices will continue to fall.............mmmm.

Oh come off it. They've only really started to fall after circa 300% rise over past 11 years.

Just because they've fallen a few percent you want to apply contrarian investment strategy to it right now and alert us to being stupid for expecting further falls?

Please.. feel free to spunk your money or borrowed money on property which is still highly over-priced. The credit crunch has only really just begun you realise... but please buy in at these levels before you see the impact of unemployment, deflation and depression.

chucky

dopester wrote: »

Oh come off it. They've only really started to fall after circa 300% rise over past 11 years.

Just because they've fallen a few percent you want to apply contrarian investment strategy to it right now and alert us to being stupid for expecting further falls?

i agree with you here - we all have agendas, these force us to justify our decison making process. this is Conrad's justification

dopester wrote: »

Please.. feel free to spunk your money or borrowed money on property which is still highly over-priced. The credit crunch has only really just begun you realise... but please buy in at these levels before you see the impact of unemployment, deflation and depression.

"unemployment, deflation and depression" haven't happened yet. these are an opinion that you have of the future economy - i'm not saying they won't happen but we're at risk of high unemployment around the corner.

you are justiying your decision making in the same way just like his contrarian investment strategy

your agenda is to delay your purchase until it is at a level that suits you, Conrad's isn't. the current level and current market suits him. we will all have own comfort levels in all of this.

hethmar

I guess (as a complete layman here) most of us tend to buy when prices are high and then jump backwards when they are low. I think thats the point Conrad is making. The time we should buy are when people are selling cheaply, not joining the herd when the prices are rocketing, which most of us do.

sabretoothtigger

Yea if you got cash then can play smart but if you need banks to give you credit and they wont then prices will have to drop alot more for it to matter much

pickles110564

hethmar wrote: »

Well, I guess if you are talking black market workers, thats a bit different isnt it and not something I could condone. Even then with your cash paid gang you are talking thousands for the shell.

Digging the footings are the minor works for the foundations, if you have had that done (in one day? that must be a small house) you will know that the concrete works and the reinforcements, depending on the area of the country you are building on will cost thousands. Or may be you didnt have planning or building regs if you used all cash in hand workers.

No i am not talking about black market workers, this is the rate in Felixstowe.
I have never said anything different about how much a shell costs to put up.
It just shows how little you know about building work, a digger man can dig the footings for a very large 5 bed detached in one day easily unless he is a lazy git like a lot of the posters on here.
On average a third of the cost (of the finished project) goes into the groundworks and I always have planning permission and building regs, otherwise how in this day and age would u be able to sell the finished product?