Is It A Good Time To Buy?

Dithering_Dad

Jumping_Bean wrote: »

Presumably one of those bears was meant to be bulls? If so, generally speaking I would agree. But I really don't think there are many bulls on here that are genuinely concerned about people missing out on a bargain. I would say there was definitely, definitely more bears posting for altruistic reasons than bulls (IMO). Somehow the words "altruistic" and "bull" don't fit comfortably together.

I would also say that on balance, not every, but most of the nasty aggressive posts, with not a lot of reasoning included, come from the bulls. I think that even as a slightly bullish poster you would acknowledge that?

I think that both groups are as bad as each other and not many of us come out of this part of the forum with much credit.

Jumping_Bean

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

I think that both groups are as bad as each other and not many of us come out of this part of the forum with much credit.

I think we'll have to agree to disagree on that one.

Pobby

I can only speak from what I have experienced. My home, 1999 to 2007 saw a 400% price increase. At the time,1999, clearly interest rates were, at the highest, 5.50%. Not much difference to where they are today. Wage inflation has continued to be low during this period. We are based in the 3rd most expensive region of the UK.

I will admit that we had bought a bit of a ``doer up`` but the total cost in that, new windows, decorating and a few bits and pieces came in at around £6k.

I can only view this as an asset bubble.

At the time of purchase we had down sized from a large 4/5 bedroom property and someone starting out on 16k a year would have easily afforded to buy where we live now. I cannot explain what has happened. I don`t feel any richer because of this. It just seems a shame to me that this has happened. It means that a lot of people will not be able to afford to buy a modest home yet earn a very decent wage.

Just wish someone could explain the logic of this to me.

rizla01

Be honest. How many of those of you, that are talking the market down have been WANTING the market to drop, for the last 2-3 years or more?

And as soon as there is a glimmer of hope for your desires to be realised you are very quick to shout about it - and go on shouting about it.

For my part I cannot see that we are, in fact, heading for 30+% further drops but I have no proof, in the same way that the bears have only statistics to 'prove' a continual fall.

Stats can only be used as a guide - Not PROOF of any future occurance, yet you would think that they form part of a prediction.

I also cannot give enough reasons for a housing market recovery, in a far shorter time than you bears predict.

It can only be guesswork and not founded on anything other than pure speculation.

Point is I think most of the populace are more positive thinking, and hopefully will remain so, and that they will act with their hearts and not with their heads, and buy something because they want it and can afford it, and not be waiting to buy a 'growing Investment', which in turn will get the housing market back on an even keel with rising prices back again as people naturally will sell to the highest bidder, encouraging people with the funds to pay more.

This is not just a dream of mine. This is based on what has happened for eons and I cannot see that things are likely to change that much, just because we are suffering a few severe financial problems in the world, which need dealing with on an individual basis.

The nature of the housing market is, and will always be, to rise.

Sorry to be the bearer (no pun intended) of bad news for you doom-mongers.

Ron2256

rizla01 wrote: »

Be honest. How many of those of you, that are talking the market down have been WANTING the market to drop, for the last 2-3 years or more?

And as soon as there is a glimmer of hope for your desires to be realised you are very quick to shout about it - and go on shouting about it.

I don't think the "market" is listening to a bunch of people on MSE. Whatever people say on MSE will have no effect on house prices.
Just look at the fact. The market is going down and will carry on like that for months/years.

For my part I cannot see that we are, in fact, heading for 30+% further drops but I have no proof, in the same way that the bears have only statistics to 'prove' a continual fall.

Stats can only be used as a guide - Not PROOF of any future occurance, yet you would think that they form part of a prediction.

I agree with that. Nobody can guess accurately what the market will do. Saying that the market will go down by 30% is rubbish. It could go down by 10% or by 50%, nobody knows. What is sure, is that there is not going to be a quick recovery.

I also cannot give enough reasons for a housing market recovery, in a far shorter time than you bears predict.

It can only be guesswork and not founded on anything other than pure speculation.

The bears give facts and logical reasons why the market is going down and will continue to do so. You don't have any logical reason for the market to recover quickly.

Point is I think most of the populace are more positive thinking, and hopefully will remain so, and that they will act with their hearts and not with their heads, and buy something because they want it and can afford it, and not be waiting to buy a 'growing Investment', which in turn will get the housing market back on an even keel with rising prices back again as people naturally will sell to the highest bidder, encouraging people with the funds to pay more.

Positive thinking will not save the market. Borrowing has reverted to normal income multiple. There isn't enough money to suport the high prices.
The crazy lending won't come back any time soon.

This is not just a dream of mine. This is based on what has happened for eons and I cannot see that things are likely to change that much, just because we are suffering a few severe financial problems in the world, which need dealing with on an individual basis.

I think you underestimate the problems ahead. We are about to enter a recession in the uk, inflation is high and debt level is high too. The boom of the last few years was based on borrowings. Now that is gone, debts have to be repaid.
The last sentence of yours makes no sense at all. This is the worst financial crisis since the great depression. It will takes years to sort itself out.

The nature of the housing market is, and will always be, to rise.

Sorry to be the bearer (no pun intended) of bad news for you doom-mongers.

The nature of the housing market in the UK is to boom and bust.

amcluesent

>Just wish someone could explain the logic of this to me<

It was a very cunning confidence trick by Gordon Brown.

By engineering the conditions needed for asset values to increase in the SE, everyone felt 'wealthy' as the value of their house skyrocketed. While no-one was caring, Clown then set about squandering ££ billions on 'his' idle old-Labour supporters in the heartlands of Scotland, Wales and the NE/NW of England, splurging on every part of the public sector, all with dodgy off-balance sheet PFI wheezes for the NHS etc.

The Ponzi scheme has had a good run, but now all the wheels are coming off and Labour will again be ejected from office with the economy in tatters, the £ slumped and millions thrown out of work. Just as could have been expected in 1997!

moanymoany

amcluesent wrote: »

>Just wish someone could explain the logic of this to me<

It was a very cunning confidence trick by Gordon Brown.

By engineering the conditions needed for asset values to increase in the SE, everyone felt 'wealthy' as the value of their house skyrocketed. While no-one was caring, Clown then set about squandering ££ billions on 'his' idle old-Labour supporters in the heartlands of Scotland, Wales and the NE/NW of England, splurging on every part of the public sector, all with dodgy off-balance sheet PFI wheezes for the NHS etc.

The Ponzi scheme has had a good run, but now all the wheels are coming off and Labour will again be ejected from office with the economy in tatters, the £ slumped and millions thrown out of work. Just as could have been expected in 1997!

I've voted in every election that I have been eligible to vote in. Now I am within weeks of my pension I have discovered an important fact:-

If you work hard, live below your means and save - you will do okay - whoever is in number 10. There are regular booms and slumps, house prices go up and down, markets are bouyant and markets slow down, whoever is in power.

I know there are people who are very poor - but I think there are a lot of people who are lazy and want to live the 'good life' without working for it. These have had a good time on credit over the past several years and will never pay what they owe because they will simply stop paying as they see no reason they should pay and suffer hardship to do so.

It has become much easier to live on benefits, the numbers of young women having children with no financial support is very high in my area, thus supplying a future generation of people to live on benefits. My stepfather lives on his pension, pension credit and allowances and has saved £10,000 over three years - and he lives well!

So, I have decided that after this year I'm going to ignore politics and not vote. I don't think that over the past nearly 40 years my vote has made one ounce of difference - whoever it was for!

GDB2222

Pobby wrote: »

I can only view this as an asset bubble.

It just seems a shame to me that this has happened. It means that a lot of people will not be able to afford to buy a modest home yet earn a very decent wage.

Just wish someone could explain the logic of this to me.

I agree. It's a huge shame. There's no logic to it. The banks lent too much. Many people, thinking house prices were bound to keep going up, borrowed too much.

If you want to find out more about the mind-state, look up 'momentum investing' on google.

neverdespairgirl

Chris2685 wrote: »

House prices have ALWAYS risen over the long term. If anyone has EVER bought a house and lived in it for 20 years, they have ALWAYS sold it for more than they bought it for! (Give or take a few really run down areas I suppose!). Look at the graph below

When you say, "ever", I take it you mean "since 1976"? (that was the range of the graph).

There are many, many 20 year periods in the last, say, 1,000 years where what you say wasn't true.

GDB2222

Clearly, as long as we have inflation, prices do tend to rise. Super-imposed upon this long-term trend, we have developed in this country a really huge boom-bust cycle.

How long it takes for a house bought at the peak to regain its previous price depends on the rate of inflation, and whether subsequent cycles are as big as the latest one.

I would expect that the bulls and the bears would all agree that buying at the top of one of the boom cycles is bad news. It seems to me that the chief difference between the bulls and the bears is their views about where we are in the cycle. I (a bear) am convinced that we are still near the peak of the cycle, with a major trough still ahead of us. The bulls think that the 10% reduction we have see so far is pretty much all of the reduction.