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Debate House Prices


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Is It A Good Time To Buy?

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Comments

  • RichOneday_2
    RichOneday_2 Posts: 4,403 Forumite
    It's interesting when talking about long term house prices, rather than medium term ups and downs, that their is a polemic view. People are in one of two camps with no middle ground and neither group will be budged. Buying will always be the better option in the long term. Or will it?

    Buying or renting? In financial terms there is not a lot in it.

    Long term house price inflation over 60 years 7.1%
    Long term inflation over 60 years 3.6% (approx)
    Annual cost of maintenance 4.0% (benchmark estimate)

    The capital gain on sale doesn't accrue to people renting of course, but if they had invested an amount equivalent to 4.0% maintenance costs on a regular basis would they necessarily be less wealthy.

    Take in to account the transactional costs of moving properties every few years compared to renters doing so pretty much at nil cost.

    There is also the issue if things do take a serious downturn an owner can often become trapped and have their entire financial well being brought crashing down to earth whereas a renter is much more 'nimble of foot' and can change properties/areas much more easily and cheaply.

    Bear in mind that the UK is overly obsessed with owning in comparison with most other European countries.

    I think the choice really comes down to having something of your own as opposed to a clear cut financial gain.
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    Abingdon Marathon 17/10/2010, (Target=2:48:57) (6:27/mile)
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  • Chris2685
    Chris2685 Posts: 1,212 Forumite
    When you say, "ever", I take it you mean "since 1976"? (that was the range of the graph).

    There are many, many 20 year periods in the last, say, 1,000 years where what you say wasn't true.
    I was talking about the modern economy... You can hardly compared what we have today to even 100 years ago really...
  • "vanity, vanity, vanity, all is vanity" said the preacher, "vanity and vexation of spirit, and there is nothing new under the sun"
    ...much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that 'he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'.
  • RichOneday wrote: »
    Buying or renting? In financial terms there is not a lot in it....

    I think the choice really comes down to having something of your own as opposed to a clear cut financial gain.

    I dunno - over the past 30 years I've had £60,000 worth of mortgage. That works out at an equivalent of £2,000/ year rent (or £166/month) but of course I could never have rented a two-bedroom flat in London for £166/month ever in the last 30 years. The clear-cut financial gain is obvious; I don't care so much about the "having something of my own", as it happens, because I'd rather own a different property. But I can't do that for the time being.
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  • Chris2685
    Chris2685 Posts: 1,212 Forumite
    "vanity, vanity, vanity, all is vanity" said the preacher, "vanity and vexation of spirit, and there is nothing new under the sun"

    Care to elaborate on that for us not so intelligent as ones self?
  • You were talking about property not falling over a 20 year period "ever", but seem to define "ever" as the last 20 or 30 years!
    ...much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that 'he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'.
  • Chris2685
    Chris2685 Posts: 1,212 Forumite
    lol, fair comment. I am really confused as to whether this would be a good time to buy or if I should just pull out of my purchase and just rent.. It really is annoying to not know :(
  • mewbie_2
    mewbie_2 Posts: 6,058 Forumite
    1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Chris2685 wrote: »
    lol, fair comment. I am really confused as to whether this would be a good time to buy or if I should just pull out of my purchase and just rent.. It really is annoying to not know :(
    Take a look around you on here. There are generally reasonable people who are warning about a coming price crash. And there is the nutcase PickledPink for the opposing view. That alone should be enough to convince you.
  • Chris2685
    Chris2685 Posts: 1,212 Forumite
    I know mewbie... It's a head over heart thing and it really is going to be heart-breaking to let this property go, but my head knows I will be steamed if property prices plummet and we could buy a similar property for half the price in a years time...
  • RichOneday_2
    RichOneday_2 Posts: 4,403 Forumite
    mewbie wrote: »
    Take a look around you on here. There are generally reasonable people who are warning about a coming price crash. And there is the nutcase PickledPink for the opposing view. That alone should be enough to convince you.

    What a fantastic summary! :rotfl::rotfl:
    Gt NW 1/2 Marathon 21/2/2010 (Target=1:22:59) (6:20/mile) 1:22:47 (6:19):j:j
    Blackpool Marathon 11/4/2010 (Target=2:59:59) (6:52/mile)
    Abingdon Marathon 17/10/2010, (Target=2:48:57) (6:27/mile)
    09/10 Race Results : http://www.thepowerof10.info/athletes/profile.aspx?athleteid=103461
    Racing Plans/Results - Post 3844 (page193)
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