Roll up. Make your housing market prediction here.

Woby_Tide

if I could understand what that last sentence meant I'd probably nod or shake my head. Your friend bought a house for £310k and then this year next door has sold for £400k? I'd say that's good going and he made an astute decision to purchase when he did. As for the £330k and his 100% mortgage and getting his hand bitten, I hope his hand is better.

What did the developers do anyway, and why do they bite peoples hand?

mylittlefriendbaxter

dean_ham wrote:

I am a FTB from wales. Why do you think that NW and Wales will have the biggest drops?

Im going to hold onto my cash for at least 2 years and see whats going to happen but im just curious why you think my region will have the biggest drop?

Cheers Dean

I think Wales will (in the case of a severe correction) be hardest hit purely because of its lack of industry and business. 6/10 people employed in Wales are in the public sector and the country has a lower GDP than Slovakia! The other 4/10 are mostly servicing the public sector workers.

Sooner or later Gordons public spending spree will have to come to an end and with it the increase in public sector jobs.

Ian_W

IN LIKE EVERYONE ELSE! wrote:
REPOSSESSIONS.
They are on the up and up, when they go up prices go down.

Golly gosh - surely not - pass the tin helmet, you mean .....

they've risen from 3,070 in the second half of last year the lowest figure on record to 4,640 in the first half of this year.
and that
The half year repossession rate was around 1 in 2,500 mortgages, compared with around 1 in 250 when repossession rates peaked in the second half of 1991.

It is very worrying that they're running at 90% BELOW the peak of 1991!!

But you are right on 2 counts. They are rising but are still lower than at almost any time since 1991 and that repossessions do drive prices down.
Most house sales are aspirational - upwards, downwards, sideways to a different area - if sellers can't get the price they need to make the move they want - they hang on, cut their price a bit or take property off the market. They don't usually reduce by 30% because they can't then afford the move they WANT to make.
When houses are repossessed in HUGE numbers it does drive prices down - when does that happen? When we're in recession. When's that gonna happen? Dunno - but when it does most people will be worrying about their jobs and incomes [ever heard of Govt pay policies?] instead of obsessing about house prices.

So can I revise my forecast made in post 50?

England to win the Ashes 2-1. :beer:

meanmachine_2

Jeez,

inflation jumps to 2.3% and what does the BoE do? Yep, go in the opposite direction.

Stagflation here we come boys...

If the bank KNEW that CPI was on the rise, and they still cut rates, then I should think they should do the decent thing and quit, don't you? Unless they know something we don't...

GreenB_2

I thought most of the inflation was due to the increasing cost of oil.... nothing any individual country can do about that really so the best poilcy in my view is to ignore it.

meanmachine_2

GreenB wrote:

I thought most of the inflation was due to the increasing cost of oil.... nothing any individual country can do about that really so the best poilcy in my view is to ignore it.

Haha. Yeah good one.

Anything we don't like we ignore. Seems to be the government's approach to everything.

Well, I'd stake my granny's life on int rates staying where they are, if not rising by the end of the year.

But then, what do I know?

meanmachinesgranny

meanmachine wrote:

Haha. Yeah good one.

Anything we don't like we ignore. Seems to be the government's approach to everything.

Well, I'd stake my granny's life on int rates staying where they are, if not rising by the end of the year.

But then, what do I know?

well for your sake I hope you know a lot or I'm going to smash your teeth out with my stick you little tinker

meanmachine_2

Oh great. My own forum stalker. Yawn

Happily for me, it's a low risk bet as my grannies are both dead.

Woby_Tide

so you think interest rates will go down then if you've bet her life on it?

meanmachine_2

Woby_Tide wrote:

so you think interest rates will go down then if you've bet her life on it?

Interesting reverse logic Woby. I think there's more chance of both grannies coming back to life and giving me a damn good kicking with their canes, than rates going down, wouldn't you?

But then I'm no "expert" like all these economists.