Halifax figures Thursday - Chief Economist or Spin Merchant?

lkalka

Paul_N wrote: »

Halifax figures now delayed AGAIN. Tentative for Wednesday, which just happens to be the day before the MPC rate setting decision.

http://forexfactory.com/calendar.php

Thats exactly what I've been thinking.

The figure is going to be bad and it's going to put pressure on the MPC to reduce rates (or at least not raise them as they should be).

Generali

lkalka wrote: »

Thats exactly what I've been thinking.

The figure is going to be bad and it's going to put pressure on the MPC to reduce rates (or at least not raise them as they should be).

Why do you feel that releasing a set of figures tomorrow rather than last week will cause them to have a greater impact on the MPC's decisions? It seems very unlikely that their short term memories are so bad that they can't remember to look as some data released last week rather than this.

Paul_N_4

Generali wrote: »

Why do you feel that releasing a set of figures tomorrow rather than last week will cause them to have a greater impact on the MPC's decisions? It seems very unlikely that their short term memories are so bad that they can't remember to look as some data released last week rather than this.

Perhaps you should tell that to the Halifax.

Paul_N_4

Seriously though, I think releasing the figures near the MPC decision puts public pressure on the BoE to make favourable changes to interest rates considering home owners are feeling the pinch with mortgage costs.

I know the BoE shouldn't be concerned with public perception, but I think they are. If people see headlines of 'house prices falling' one day, they don't want to see 'BoE raise interest rates' the next. Whereas headlines of 'house prices falling' one day, and 'BoE raise interest rates' one week later. That's not so bad. So more to do with the public's short term memories than the BoE's.

ginvzt

But banks don't set mortgage rates according to BoE. Yes, other things may depend on interest rates - but the lower they area, the higher the inflation will shoot! So, having public in mind, BoE will probably increase the interest rates!

steadysaver

double post - Oops

Deleted...

steadysaver

ginvzt wrote: »

But banks don't set mortgage rates according to BoE. Yes, other things may depend on interest rates - but the lower they area, the higher the inflation will shoot! So, having public in mind, BoE will probably increase the interest rates!

One can only hope that they do increase rates. As a saver it will be good for me, and as has already been said, mortgages rates don't seem to be following the BoE base rate very much at the moment.

To lose sight of inflation and use the governments poor excuse that our inflation has been imported would not be wise. Maybe to a certain degree we have imported some, but surely a government should have seen this as a problem and acted. They just sit and hope that it all ticks over nicely.

Paul_N_4

ginvzt wrote: »

But banks don't set mortgage rates according to BoE. Yes, other things may depend on interest rates - but the lower they area, the higher the inflation will shoot! So, having public in mind, BoE will probably increase the interest rates!

But the public will not see raising interest rates as a good thing for them. That's what I'm saying about public perception. IMO, the majority of the public during this period of falling house prices and increased costs of living (fuel/food/bills), lower interest rates are perceived as good, higher interest rates perceived as bad. Inflation is not really understood.

Should the BoE be raising rates now? Because if as you say the BoE would be looking out for the public by rasing rates, why haven't they done it already considering inflation is rising rapidly and set to go further? Is it because they see a looming recession, or because they don't want to pinch the public purse strings too much? Again, public pressure there.

And I'm sure if the BoE raise interest rates Thursday, the banks will very quickly follow suit in that direction.

Generali

According to King of Nowhere on The Fool, the Halifax always comes out 2nd Thursday of the month. I don't know why the stats websites think otherwise.

My experience is that even the Bloomberg events calendar is pretty flaky.

steadysaver

Generali wrote: »

According to King of Nowhere on The Fool, the Halifax always comes out 2nd Thursday of the month. I don't know why the stats websites think otherwise.

My experience is that even the Bloomberg events calendar is pretty flaky.

Last month they came out on the 5th June, 1st thursday of the month, and previously on 2nd May, 1st Friday of the month.