Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

mayonnaise · 5 July 2017 at 12:36PM

Conrad wrote: »

I SIMPLY DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL PRIOTRITISE SOME FOTY FAR OFF NOTION OF PRESEVRING EU OVER HERE N JOBS AND GROWTH

A bit early to be plastered already, Conrad.

Herzlos · 5 July 2017 at 12:44PM

Conrad wrote: »

In the end this vague idea of dis-incentivising other nations from leaving, is nothing like as hot and real as deffo losing jobs, growth, tax and GDP if UK is given a trade hampering deal. This on top of cost of replacing lost UK club fee.

I suspect their own jobs, prosperity and tax base will take priority over punishing UK

I never said anything about punishing the UK, they've got no need to do that since we're going to be punishing ourselves pretty badly.

What they've repeatedly stated is that we can't have a cake and eat it approach (which we've apparently accepted).

We don't want free movement, so we don't get free trade, services or capital.
We can presumably make a deal for transfer of goods but we're also adamant we're leaving the single market and customs unions. So we've already determined trade will become more painful for both sides.

They've given us a menu of options, but we don't want any, we want a "good deal", whatever that means. No deal we can ever get will be as good as the extra super special deal we're throwing away because we dislike foreigners.

Given that, what are you expecting the EU to give us? And what are you expecting to give them in return? What leverage do we actually have beyond being about 9% of their export market?

mayonnaise · 5 July 2017 at 1:06PM

Rail commuters face 'Brexit fare hike' of nearly four percent

It will be a further blow to commuters in London, and other parts of the country, already suffering from the worsening squeeze on living standards unleashed by the Brexit vote.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/rail-commuters-face-brexit-fare-hike-of-nearly-four-times-the-one-per-cent-public-sector-pay-cap-a3580271.html

Herzlos · 5 July 2017 at 1:26PM

I guess that's just what happens when most of our public transport infrastructure is foreign owned and we tank our currency. On the plus side, we're still subsidizing public transport across Europe.

Not that I'm happy about it, but I've become used to price hikes after having had season tickets for over a decade now.

A_Medium_Size_Jock · 5 July 2017 at 1:32PM

The UK tech sector reports record investment in the first half of this year:

In the first six months of the year, more than £1.3bn was ploughed into UK tech by venture capitalists, and £1.1bn of that in London alone - more than any other six month time period over the last decade.

http://www.cityam.com/267847/uk-tech-shrugged-off-brexit-record-vc-investment-first-half

A_Medium_Size_Jock · 5 July 2017 at 1:36PM

Another UK builder reporting increased sales, with no pause on investments as they did following the referendum:

"We've made no such moves post the general election and are in fact increasing our workflow, almost doubling the amount of sales releases we have next year."

The company said its forward order book had grown by 241 million pounds ($311.3 million) since March 1 to July 4, adding that overall reservations were in line with last year and sales indicators were well ahead.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mccarthy-stone-outlook-idUKKBN19Q0NH?il=0

Herzlos · 5 July 2017 at 1:42PM

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

The UK tech sector reports record investment in the first half of this year:

http://www.cityam.com/267847/uk-tech-shrugged-off-brexit-record-vc-investment-first-half

Interesting that £388m came from Softbank (who bought ARM). London does still seem to be holding onto it's crown as the tech capital though, which is (I assume) a good thing.

I didn't catch if it made any distinction as to where the money goes - is it going to UK firms who are outsourcing most of it to the East, or is the money staying in the UK?

A_Medium_Size_Jock · 5 July 2017 at 1:48PM

Herzlos wrote: »

Interesting that £388m came from Softbank (who bought ARM). London does still seem to be holding onto it's crown as the tech capital though, which is (I assume) a good thing.

I didn't catch if it made any distinction as to where the money goes - is it going to UK firms who are outsourcing most of it to the East, or is the money staying in the UK?

If you read the article it seems pretty clear that it is investment in the UK.
As my quote above says:

more than £1.3bn was ploughed into UK tech by venture capitalists, and £1.1bn of that in London alone

Plus :

“For a technology business looking to raise growth capital and scale, investment can come from anywhere in the world, but London is a great place to be located," said Herman Narula, chief executive of startup Improbable, which boasted the biggest deal of the last six months.

Herzlos · 5 July 2017 at 1:51PM

Neither quote rules out UK tech companies having off-shore sites doing most of the work. But I'll take it to mean that it's talking about money generated in the UK.

Conrad · 5 July 2017 at 1:54PM

Herzlos wrote: »

Given that, what are you expecting the EU to give us? And what are you expecting to give them in return? What leverage do we actually have beyond being about 9% of their export market?

Any hampering of trade harms core European nations that enjoy significant exports to UK already staring down barrel of increased EU club fee.

Every single time you write the UK will suffer harm due to the trade deal offered, you need to write Holland, Spain, France et al to be harmed by hampered trade deal

I think the entire Remain blind spot hinges on this expectation core EU nations will vote in a deal to harm their UK sales.

Debate House Prices

Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

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