Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

Yeah it's not a big decline, but it's still going the wrong way, no?

In itself it's not a big deal though. Maybe it'll steady out once everything else picks up.

Or perhaps just this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-fulfilling_prophecy

cogito

Herzlos wrote: »

leaving EU wide scientific bodies (like Euratom).

Euratom is not an EU institution although it does have common members plus Switzerland. The UK does however have the UKAEA.

mayonnaise

UK productivity falls to pre-crisis level

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40504734

The productivity of UK workers has dropped back to pre-financial crisis levels, according to official figures.
Hourly output fell 0.5% in the first three months of the year, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

Today's productivity figures are bad to the point of shocking.

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

Yeah it's not a big decline, but it's still going the wrong way, no?
.

And every few months we get told services slumped and then hey presto a month or two later 'surprise' boost again.


Same with the housing building slumps you guys have posted up a few times since the vote, only to then be replaced with new reports showing a surge. Same with manufacturing.

cogito

mayonnaise wrote: »

UK productivity falls to pre-crisis level

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40504734

Your highlighted quote is by the Economics Editor of the unbiased BBC.

Conrad

FOR EXAMPLE, HOT ON THE HEALS OF DOOM-REPORTS CAME REPORTS LIKE THESE;




http://www.milsted-langdon.co.uk/partners-blog/2017/03/manufacturers-confidence-hits-22-year-high/


Manufacturers’ confidence hits 22-year high



Optimism among the UK’s manufacturing
..................................................................



The balance of manufacturers reporting improved export sales rose to 26 per cent, up from 16 per cent at the end of 2016, according to the survey by the British Chambers of Commerce. 2nd highest on record..



http://www.cityam.com/264986/british-exporters-bounce-back-sterling-sweet-spot-takes
………………….................................................


Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported the biggest rise in the value of retail spending in 15 years over the three months to April - up 6.2% on a year earlier.


Howard Archer, chief European and UK economist at IHS Markit, said the unexpectedly high rebound in retail sales boosted UK second quarter growth prospects.
https://www.mix96.co.uk/news/national/2291651/sterling-above-130-as-retail-sales-net-easter-boost/



BOE/ Carney - Business Investment into the UK is holding up


Business investment is now expected to be positive this year, while policymakers more than doubled their forecast for business investment next year to 3.25pc, from a previous projection of 1.25pc.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/11/business-investment-global-recovery-will-aid-uk-growth-bank/


………………………………............................


Economic news Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI;


The start of the second quarter saw a solid improvement in the performance of the UK manufacturing sector. Rates of expansion in output, total new orders and new export work all gathered pace, underpinned by robust business confidence and driving further job creation.



The seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI® ) rose to a three-year high of 57.3 in April, up from March’s four-month low of 54.2.


The PMI has signalled expansion for nine months in a row.


https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/39b36ce5e5164f1b850ca35f6ee84beb


…………………………….....................................


UK retail sales enjoy biggest jump since 2006


https://www.ft.com/content/99868c72-808d-3399-bdd6-df83b4344fe2


…………………………………………….


FTSE 250 Index of smaller companies with more UK business as a proportion is now up by one third since June 27th 2016, whilst the large companies in the FTSE 100 with more exposure to foreign currency earnings are up by 23%.


……………………...............................................


Heathrow cargo hits five-year high


Global British trade at Heathrow soared in March, with volumes surging nearly 13% to 148,000 metric tonnes – the largest monthly growth in over five years.





Emerging markets in Asia and South America spearheaded the Airport’s cargo growth with exports to Mexico rising by 28%, Brazil 13%, India 9% and China 5%.




The airport also saw exports to Indonesia rise (up over 9,000%) after Garuda Indonesia moved to Heathrow from Gatwick last year.





http://www.bqlive.co.uk/london-the-south/2017/04/12/news/heathrow-cargo-hits-five-year-high-25620/


..............................................................


Irish food producers loose out
Brexit, which has made it cheaper to import groceries from the UK, is the main cause


http://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/mixed-brexit-blessing-as-grocery-prices-fall-35612508.html

Conrad

DETAIL FROM DUTCH REPORT;

Britain is the Netherlands' second-largest trading partner, accounting for 9 percent of exports, according to the paper by two members of the Dutch parliament.

"Any restriction on free trade with Britain would inevitably be at the cost of Dutch exports, prosperity and employment,"

"There's no reason at all to allow Britain to cherry pick ... but there's also no reason to prevent Britain from receiving trade advantages," given to other neighbouring countries, it said.

"Why would we offer nice deals for Ukraine and Turkey and not to Britain? I'm willing to fight for that," Omtzigt said.

For the Netherlands, allowing Britain to crash out of the EU with no agreement in place would be "very undesirable" because of trade tariffs that would "without doubt damage the Dutch economy," the report said.

An earlier study by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) found that Brexit would cost the Dutch economy 10 billion euros annually


http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-netherlands-idUKKBN16S17A?il=0






SO UK GETTING A GOOD TRADE DEAL HINGES ON CORE CONTRIBUTOR NATIONS ALREADY FACING MAKING UP THE LOST UK CLUB FEE AGREEING TO ALSO PUT UP WITH LOST GDP, GROWTH AND JOBS.


I SIMPLY DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL PRIOTRITISE SOME FOTY FAR OFF NOTION OF PRESEVRING EU OVER HERE N JOBS AND GROWTH

A_Medium_Size_Jock

mayonnaise wrote: »

UK productivity falls to pre-crisis level

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40504734

From the ONS:


https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/labourproductivity/bulletins/labourproductivity/jantomar2017
Looks like another non-news talk-down-the-UK item to me, especially since we already know the first quarter was slow.
In fact in effect it's giving us the same news twice - but in a different manner.

Move on.

Herzlos

That's nothing new. We already know a hard Brexit will hurt the 9% of Dutch exports coming to us.

What we're in disagreement is what that means. You seem to be arguing that we should leave the EU because they ignore everyone, and that we'll get a good deal because they are beholden to everyone, and I just can't get my head around that. I'm of the opinion that the Dutch will agree that it sucks, petition for a favourable deal and then move on to focus on growing the other 91% of their trade across the growing Eurozone economy.

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

I'm of the opinion that the Dutch will agree that it sucks, petition for a favourable deal and then move on to focus on growing the other 91% of their trade across the growing Eurozone economy.

In the end this vague idea of dis-incentivising other nations from leaving, is nothing like as hot and real as deffo losing jobs, growth, tax and GDP if UK is given a trade hampering deal. This on top of cost of replacing lost UK club fee.


I suspect their own jobs, prosperity and tax base will take priority over punishing UK