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2009 House Price Forecast - HPC Board beats Halifax and Nationwide
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michaels
Posts: 29,129 Forumite
As posted by Mystic_Trev here, Halifax and Nationwide refuse to make 2009 predictions - but we are made of sterner stuff.
The poll is for Year on Year change Jan-Dec 2009 but I thought anyone brave enough could predict quarterly figures for this (and any other economic indicators they care to chose) in the thread. I will post an example below but will need to come back to it for my final predictions.
I think we should mark entries against the Nationwide index.
My guesses (Update 1 19/12/08)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
House prices -2% -2% -4% -2%
Growth (quarter) -1.5% -0.5% -0.2% 0.2%
Inflation (end Q) 2.5% 1.2% 1% 1.5%
Interest Rates 1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5%
These are gut figures, no modelling has been done
The poll is for Year on Year change Jan-Dec 2009 but I thought anyone brave enough could predict quarterly figures for this (and any other economic indicators they care to chose) in the thread. I will post an example below but will need to come back to it for my final predictions.
I think we should mark entries against the Nationwide index.
My guesses (Update 1 19/12/08)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
House prices -2% -2% -4% -2%
Growth (quarter) -1.5% -0.5% -0.2% 0.2%
Inflation (end Q) 2.5% 1.2% 1% 1.5%
Interest Rates 1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5%
These are gut figures, no modelling has been done
I think....
What is your prediction for the change in average house prices during 2009? 164 votes
Up more than 10%
0%
1 vote
Up between 3% and 10%
7%
12 votes
No change (-3% to +3%)
3%
6 votes
Down between 3% and 10%
14%
24 votes
Down between 10% and 15%
25%
41 votes
Down between 15% and 20%
30%
50 votes
Down between 20% and 25%
7%
12 votes
Down between 25% and 30%
7%
13 votes
Down between 30% and 35%
1%
2 votes
Down more than 35%
1%
3 votes
0
Comments
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Down between 10% and 15%Yoy 2009 -11.5%Freedom is not worth having if it does not include the freedom to make mistakes.0
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Down between 10% and 15%I guess next week RICS and Land Registry will also stop reporting as well to try to keep people in the dark. Might as well go buy that new Jaguar now on finance to help out.I beep for Robins - Beep Beep
& Choo Choo for trains!!0 -
Down between 10% and 15%
Its just been added.It might have been better to do this as an actual poll, why not scrub this and do a poll?
I'll see your 11.5 and raise you 1% my guestimate is -12.5% Did I miss the poll or has it just been added?
Anyway I wanted to be more accurate, so when I'm right this time next year, you can all fall to your knees and praise me
edit
Hey you've removed your post, good job I saved it for posterity.Freedom is not worth having if it does not include the freedom to make mistakes.0 -
Down between 10% and 15%Lotus-eater wrote: »Its just been added.
Anyway I wanted to be more accurate, so when I'm right this time next year, you can all fall to your knees and praise me
edit
Hey you've removed your post, good job I saved it for posterity.
Lol, yes because I thought I had been blind and somehow missed it (so was covering my foolishness), I think the 10-15% band will be a firm favourite here0 -
Down between 15% and 20%If the wheels fell off badly this year before a recession, then as we enter recession and head towards 3m out of work I will say houses will drop more in 2009 than in 2008. Not by a lot mind...
I will say 15.8%0 -
Down between 15% and 20%Just over 15% I think, but I think the decreases will increase in momentum as the year goes on.
I think this time next year things will look bleak for many.0 -
Down between 10% and 15%Just over 15% I think, but I think the decreases will increase in momentum as the year goes on.
I think this time next year things will look bleak for many.
I agree (but not on the over 15%) so I think probably about Feb-March 2010 will be a good time to buy0 -
Down between 15% and 20%TBH forget the drivel about why they cannot predict. Surely it is just too difficult to call? I am sure everyone can remember all big predictions at the height of the bubble was at 0% and even some were calling 2-3% growth.
Personally i think 2009 has all the hallmarks for being WORSE than 2008 - i am talking about the economy as a whole and not just the housing market. Therefore here are my predictions for HPC next year are negative 15% BUT it will not have ended there with a further 5%-10% in 2010.
Sorry but i cannot see how we can even begin to think about HPI for some while yet, it has taken around 18 months for sellers to wake up to the fact they will not get 2007 prices anymore (and i mean that in the nicest possible way) and houses are only just beginning to drop in asking price so 12 months time until the bottom? Far too early...0 -
Down between 15% and 20%my prediction: 17%.
my amateurish reasoning behind this: worsening economy; head of barclays erring on the side of optimism and calling 15%; final acceptance by sellers that HP's are indeed heading south.
an overall drop of 32% from peak. falls less severe in 2010.0 -
Down between 10% and 15%Sorry but i cannot see how we can even begin to think about HPI for some while yet, it has taken around 18 months for sellers to wake up to the fact they will not get 2007 prices anymore (and i mean that in the nicest possible way) and houses are only just beginning to drop in asking price so 12 months time until the bottom? Far too early...
Who on earth is predicting the bottom in 12 months time? My most optimistic call I could make would be about late spring 2010, but possibly 1 year after that. Although I will probably be looking to buy early in 2010 (subject to the right properties being available in our specific target area) beacuse we have a few properties to buy and need to get on with it if we want to get them all before the market turns around by late 2011-20120
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