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If we vote for Brexit what happens
Comments
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Just to show that it is not just those who chose Brexit who think the way of my post above, Sigmar Gabriel (the German Foreign Minister) has just today warned against the EU treating the UK too harshly regarding Brexit.
http://news.sky.com/story/germany-warns-against-treating-uk-too-harshly-on-brexit-107724520 -
I am using logic to present an argument. It's an idea that's been around for a while. Aristotle was very good at it for example. Bloody Europeans eh.
If the EU had little impact on the UK it'll be easy to leave but there'll be no great advantage to be gained by leaving. If the EU has a huge impact on the UK then it'll be hard to leave because the EU has a huge impact on the UK although perhaps there are large gains.
By what logical argument do you see leaving an organisation that has little impact on the UK resulting in large gains or leaving an organisation that has huge impact on the UK simply? Both appear to be logical impossibilities.0 -
davomcdave wrote: »I am using logic to present an argument. It's an idea that's been around for a while. Aristotle was very good at it for example. Bloody Europeans eh.
If the EU had little impact on the UK it'll be easy to leave but there'll be no great advantage to be gained by leaving. If the EU has a huge impact on the UK then it'll be hard to leave because the EU has a huge impact on the UK although perhaps there are large gains.
By what logical argument do you see leaving an organisation that has little impact on the UK resulting in large gains or leaving an organisation that has huge impact on the UK simply? Both appear to be logical impossibilities.
Ask the average person in the street and you'll receive your answer. As to whether they've been impacted or not.0 -
Thrugelmir wrote: »Ask the average person in the street and you'll receive your answer. As to whether they've been impacted or not.
The retail figures show how the average person is being impacted by the economy overall. A big part of that impact will be the Brexit fall in Sterling. I don't have to ask them I can see what's happening. I only have to survey people to make predictions and I don't think economics is good at predictions.0 -
You're being more than a little disingenuous again there.davomcdave wrote: »The retail figures show how the average person is being impacted by the economy overall. A big part of that impact will be the Brexit fall in Sterling. I don't have to ask them I can see what's happening. I only have to survey people to make predictions and I don't think economics is good at predictions.
The decision to Brexit may have precipitated the GB Pound's fall in value but the root cause was simply that the GB Pound had been overvalued for far too long.
As has been discussed in these forums.
At this stage the retail figures show very little.
You seem determined to see what is not yet there.
Also you ignore the fact that (as I have said before) these figures are prone to such fluctuations periodically.
See the graph linked below to see an example of such a drop, before Brexit too in mid-2014.
Were you equally concerned then, I wonder - and has the UK survived?
http://www.retaileconomics.co.uk/insights/retail-economics-response-ONS-retail-sales-index-january-2017
There may well be consequences and these consequences may not be positive in nature.
Acknowledgement of possibilities is one thing.
But to suggest large impact at this stage is not only premature, it is foolhardy.
As so many pre-Brexit predictions have very clearly shown.0 -
davomcdave wrote: »The retail figures show how the average person is being impacted by the economy overall. .
UK growth has been driven in part by consumer debt. Debt in the widest terms is the issue for sterling. Want a better exchange rate. Then interest rates will have to rise. Which in itself will inhibit growth. The problems are of the UK's own making. Brexit hasn't even impacted yet. That's tomorrows problem. Yesterdays haven't been addressed yet. Challenging times lie ahead. Both for the Uk and Europe as a whole.0 -
A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »EU assets may be valued far higher than the snippet you choose to quote, see the post above yours for just one example.
Do not assume to know all the assets - and no I am not assuming either but you may be certain that they are greater than you or I imagine.
Also, regarding "talk" (and that is all it is) of physical assets:
We don't really want EU wine from their "lake" thank you. There are many better new world wines and we can choose what we want.
So write that idea off; we'll take hard cash instead.
Property?
Look, if it's not in the UK what's the point?
I mean, knowing the EU they will only make us pay one way or another - new punitive taxes for non-Eurozone-owned properties for example.
Nope, we'll take hard cash thank you.
Works of art?
Firstly we have quite enough of our own.
Secondly can realistic value be agreed?
Thirdly is the provenance sound?
That'll be another "no thank you" then.
We'll take cash.
There you go you see?
All that concern over transport, storage etc. will be completely unfounded.
Because if "the EU" do decide to play hardball silly beggars there is no way will ANY of it be conceded anywhere near as easily as you suspect.
Then I have to say "if it comes to that".
If only we could sell naivety. It would be a export success for the UK.
Tell me, if you owned a chateau in France worth say half a million Euros would you just abandon it after Brexit? Or would you want to sell it?Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions.0 -
It was a miscalculation I agree. The assumption was that people would vote in their own economic self interest and most did, as the old/young split demonstrated. What was more difficult to predict were those people who voted for a principle irrespective of the consequences.
Oh the irony.0 -
A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »You're being more than a little disingenuous again there.
The decision to Brexit may have precipitated the GB Pound's fall in value but the root cause was simply that the GB Pound had been overvalued for far too long.
As has been discussed in these forums.
At this stage the retail figures show very little.
You seem determined to see what is not yet there.
Also you ignore the fact that (as I have said before) these figures are prone to such fluctuations periodically.
See the graph linked below to see an example of such a drop, before Brexit too in mid-2014.
Were you equally concerned then, I wonder - and has the UK survived?
http://www.retaileconomics.co.uk/insights/retail-economics-response-ONS-retail-sales-index-january-2017
There may well be consequences and these consequences may not be positive in nature.
Acknowledgement of possibilities is one thing.
But to suggest large impact at this stage is not only premature, it is foolhardy.
As so many pre-Brexit predictions have very clearly shown.
How can Sterling be under or over valued when it's freely traded? It doesn't make sense unless you think that someone was manipulating the value of the currency.0 -
Oh dear.davomcdave wrote: »How can Sterling be under or over valued when it's freely traded? It doesn't make sense unless you think that someone was manipulating the value of the currency.
That demonstrates a remarkable lack of understanding.
Prior to our EU referendum even the IMF said the GBP was overvalued.
Are you seriously suggesting that you know better than them?
So either ask them or try having a read of these, just to start you off:
https://fullfact.org/economy/exchange-rates-and-imf/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-19/deutsche-bank-s-five-reasons-why-the-pound-is-overvalued
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/10/currency-guru-says-pound-slide-liberates-uk-from-malign-grip-of/0
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