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The HAMISH_MCTAVISH 2012 Predictions Thread
Comments
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So today is the last business day of 2011.
House prices rose by 1% on the year as per this mornings Nationwide index.
Silver is now, at the time of posting, down 11% this year.
FTSE 100 fell 5.6% this year.
Quite a surprising set of results..... I wonder what the big surprises will be in 2012?“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Hamish_Mactavish for President!0
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House Prices: +/-2%
Rent prices: +/-2%
Economy: Growth .5% to 1.5%
Base rates: Staying the same
Inflation: Likely to continue to fall, and might hit BOE target.
QE: Likely to be another 50-75billion
Unemployment:
Eurozone: Will survive.
Politics: Ineffective opposition unlikely to trouble the current government.
Gold and Silver: Don't really care0 -
Some interesting stuff in here...
If you'd predicted that 2012 would be up or down a bit on 2012 you'd be about right.
Looks like most over-estimated GDP by a little but other posters were forecasting the start of the 'real recession'.
Couple of way out predictions - I predicted a 0.25% increase in base rates (not sure what I was thinking). The award for most incorrect prediction looks like Homeless expecting a 10% fall in nominal house prices.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »House Prices: Last year I predicted flat with a slight bias towards falling prices, this year I'm predicting flat with a slight bias towards rising prices. So a range of -2% to +3% for the national indices.
Spot on.Rent prices: Will continue to rise after the winter dip, albeit more slowly than in 2011.
Spot on.Economy: No double dip recession, weak growth to continue.
Wrong. It was a tiny double dip, but dip it did.Base rates: Will end the year at or below 1%.
Correct.Inflation: Will fall back towards target this year, perhaps slightly below, although this may be averted with more QE.
Correct.QE: Mostly depends on the Euro crisis and it's effect on bank lending, although we could also see it if inflation looks likely to fall well below target. I'd say a 50/50 chance we'll see another round in 2012.
Not really a prediction so no score.Unemployment: Will peak around 2.8 million either in 2012 or early 2013 (slightly up on my previous estimate of 2.75).
Peaked at 2.67 million.
Close, but no cigar.Eurozone: Will stay intact.
Correct.Politics: The focus will increasingly be on growth and talking up the recovery with the clock ticking towards the next election. Osborne will claim not to have strayed from "Plan A", but will be forced to make further significant changes in order to ensure growth.
Correct.
Osborne has made more U-turns than a lost taxi driver this year, while claiming still to be on Plan A. :rotfl:Gold and Silver: Both crashed in 2011. Gold may approach it's previous highs at some point but not meaningfully higher, Silver won't even come close, it's well and truly peaked.
Correct.
Not bad at all, another year of being mostly right. :beer:“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
The award for most incorrect prediction looks like Homeless expecting a 10% fall in nominal house prices.
:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
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HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Not bad at all, another year of being mostly right. :beer:
..and you've managed to stay so humble too.
Come on then - kick off your 2013 predictions thread.0 -
..and you've managed to stay so humble too.
There are days when this board makes me feel like Mac Davis....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-07_2DWfEmQ
..... surrounded by muppets.
Come on then - kick off your 2013 predictions thread.
Oh, alright then.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0
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