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The HAMISH MCTAVISH 2011 Predictions Thread
Comments
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HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »So for the second year in a row, my 2010 predictions were pretty close to the mark.
Results here: http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=40171958&postcount=70
Lets see if we can make it 3 in a row.....:D
2011 predictions:
1. The Coalition will survive the year. Labour will continue to poll high enough, and the lib dems low enough, that nobody will risk a serious split.
2. The political narrative will change to a far more positive message. The doomers have had their day, Cameron and Osbourne know full well the clock is ticking now with a need to get the recovery going in stronger terms. There's only so long you can get away with blaming Labour for everything, and that time has passed.
3. The Tories will strong arm the banks to lend more. In order for the housing market (and the wider economy) to be rising nicely in time for the next election, the groundwork has to be laid now. We've already seen Cameron and Shapps come out and pan the banks for insufficient mortgage lending. Expect it to continue, and the pressure to keep rising until they start lending more.
4. The "Austerity Agenda" will fail--- in places like Ireland and Greece. OK, thats a bit of a no-brainer, as it's already failed, with their deficits growing in spite of austerity as revenues shrink faster than spending. But at least everyone else will see that such an experiment is doomed to failure, so the mistake is unlikely to be repeated elsewhere.
5. BOEBR will remain at or below 1% all year. A token rise is possible if the bank lose their nerve, but it won't be meaningful. There will be no change to QE. Existing QE will not be withdrawn.
6. There will be no double dip recession.
7. House prices will continue to fluctuate mildly. Small falls over winter, small rises in spring & summer. They'll end the year somewhere in a range from +2% to -3% from now.
8. Scottish and Aberdeen prices will reach another new peak in 2011, to exceed the new peak set in 2010. Aberdeen prices will exceed 2007's peak plus 5%.
9. Oil will cross $100 a barrel, and the world won't end.
10. The Eurozone will continue to have problems, but will survive. The sovereign debt crisis will be averted through ongoing bailouts. Collective self interest will prevail.
11. Unemployment will peak at 2.75 million, private sector job growth will pick up the slack from public sector cuts. There will be no mass redundancies, most will be done through natural attrition, and public sector losses will end up being less than currently projected due to better than expected economic figures.
12. UK economic recovery will continue, and will in fact be slightly better than currently expected.
So there you have it.
The 2011 HAMISH MCTAVISH predictions laid bare for future adoration or ridicule.
Now what are yours......;)
Well done on your 2010 predictions Hamish.
Would probably concur with your 2011 views as well0 -
1 Inflation will continue higher right through 2011
2 The BOE will be forced to raise rates to fight inflation
3 Increased prices of oil and food will push those 5 million living off credit cards and barely making ends meet into bankruptcy/penury when the rates rise
4 As a result house prices will crash
5 The UK economy will enter into depression.
6 further QE will be required to fill the 4.5 trill black hole of gov debt deficit.
7 The pound will drop badly causing further inflation
8 Gold and silver will soar in price
9 I'll throw in a couple of more wars too prob Iran and Korea
10 Man City will win the premier leagueHi, we’ve had to remove your signature. If you’re not sure why please read the forum rules or email the forum team if you’re still unsure - MSE ForumTeam0 -
This post is a bit ghoulish;)REAL_MEN_DRIVE_AUDIS wrote: »Well done Hamish. You are the man. It's just a shame all the impoverished renters on here won't listen to your pearls of wisdom.0 -
2011 predictions:
1. The Coalition will survive the year. Labour will continue to poll high enough, and the lib dems low enough, that nobody will risk a serious split.
True
2. The political narrative will change to a far more positive message. The doomers have had their day, Cameron and Osbourne know full well the clock is ticking now with a need to get the recovery going in stronger terms. There's only so long you can get away with blaming Labour for everything, and that time has passed.
Also True
3. The Tories will strong arm the banks to lend more. In order for the housing market (and the wider economy) to be rising nicely in time for the next election, the groundwork has to be laid now. We've already seen Cameron and Shapps come out and pan the banks for insufficient mortgage lending. Expect it to continue, and the pressure to keep rising until they start lending more.
Well they've certainly tried, although to limited success so far. The mortgage indemnity scheme for newbuilds, the FTB summit with bankers, etc etc etc.
4. The "Austerity Agenda" will fail--- in places like Ireland and Greece. OK, thats a bit of a no-brainer, as it's already failed, with their deficits growing in spite of austerity as revenues shrink faster than spending. But at least everyone else will see that such an experiment is doomed to failure, so the mistake is unlikely to be repeated elsewhere.
True. Ireland and Greece are a bigger financial mess now that they were 12 months ago, with revenue falling away faster than the cuts can keep up with.
5. BOEBR will remain at or below 1% all year. A token rise is possible if the bank lose their nerve, but it won't be meaningful. There will be no change to QE. Existing QE will not be withdrawn.
True on rates, true on existing QE, got it wrong on more QE as an additional 75bn was added.
6. There will be no double dip recession.
True
7. House prices will continue to fluctuate mildly. Small falls over winter, small rises in spring & summer. They'll end the year somewhere in a range from +2% to -3% from now.
Well we haven't seen the Dec figures yet and I'll update when they come in, but so far that looks pretty much spot on with Nationwide slightly up, and Halifax slightly down.
8. Scottish and Aberdeen prices will reach another new peak in 2011, to exceed the new peak set in 2010. Aberdeen prices will exceed 2007's peak plus 5%.
Got that one wrong. Scottish prices were flat to slightly down this year.
9. Oil will cross $100 a barrel, and the world won't end.
True
10. The Eurozone will continue to have problems, but will survive. The sovereign debt crisis will be averted through ongoing bailouts. Collective self interest will prevail.
True
11. Unemployment will peak at 2.75 million, private sector job growth will pick up the slack from public sector cuts. There will be no mass redundancies, most will be done through natural attrition, and public sector losses will end up being less than currently projected due to better than expected economic figures.
Mostly right for most of the year.... Unemployment remains below 2.75 million, but probably hasn't yet peaked so too early to call. Private sector growth did pick up the slack for the first half of the year, but not for the last quarter. There were no mass redundancies and the majority of losses were from natural attrition, job losses were lower than expected but not because of better than expected economic results, more due to political U-turns.
12. UK economic recovery will continue, True
and will in fact be slightly better than currently expected.
Nope, got that one wrong
2012 predictions to follow.....“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »And I almost forgot......
13. (which has been unlucky for me so far, so perhaps appropriate)
Gold and Silver will crash.
Yep, both Gold and Silver crashed in 2011. Silver is still trading at circa 40% below peak 9 months later.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
2011 predictions:
1. The Coalition will survive the year. Labour will continue to poll high enough, and the lib dems low enough, that nobody will risk a serious split.
True
WELL DONE. YOU THOUGHT THE COALITION WOULD SURVICE A WHOLE YEAR. STUCK YOUR NECK OUT WITH THAT ONE.
2. The political narrative will change to a far more positive message. The doomers have had their day, Cameron and Osbourne know full well the clock is ticking now with a need to get the recovery going in stronger terms. There's only so long you can get away with blaming Labour for everything, and that time has passed.
Also True
POLITICIANS PUTTING A POSITIVE SPIN ON THINGS.
YOU ARE A REGULAR MYSTIC MEG.
3. The Tories will strong arm the banks to lend more. In order for the housing market (and the wider economy) to be rising nicely in time for the next election, the groundwork has to be laid now. We've already seen Cameron and Shapps come out and pan the banks for insufficient mortgage lending. Expect it to continue, and the pressure to keep rising until they start lending more.
Well they've certainly tried, although to limited success so far. The mortgage indemnity scheme for newbuilds, the FTB summit with bankers, etc etc etc.
AS RIGHT. SO REALLY, FORGETTING THE ACTUALLY SUCCEDING PART YOUR PREDICTION WAS POLITICIANS WILL TRY AND PREVENT HOUSE PRICES CRASHING FURTHER.
YOU'VE TAKEN SOME BIG RISKS IN YOUR PREDICTIONS EH.
4. The "Austerity Agenda" will fail--- in places like Ireland and Greece. OK, thats a bit of a no-brainer, as it's already failed, with their deficits growing in spite of austerity as revenues shrink faster than spending. But at least everyone else will see that such an experiment is doomed to failure, so the mistake is unlikely to be repeated elsewhere.
True. Ireland and Greece are a bigger financial mess now that they were 12 months ago, with revenue falling away faster than the cuts can keep up with.
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS F*CKED.
COR. STICKING YOUR NECK OUT AGAIN.
5. BOEBR will remain at or below 1% all year. A token rise is possible if the bank lose their nerve, but it won't be meaningful. There will be no change to QE. Existing QE will not be withdrawn.
True on rates, true on existing QE, got it wrong on more QE as an additional 75bn was added.
6. There will be no double dip recession.
True
ISN'T THE JURY STILL OUT ON THAT ONE HAMISH?
7. House prices will continue to fluctuate mildly. Small falls over winter, small rises in spring & summer. They'll end the year somewhere in a range from +2% to -3% from now.
Well we haven't seen the Dec figures yet and I'll update when they come in, but so far that looks pretty much spot on with Nationwide slightly up, and Halifax slightly down.
:rotfl:AND LAND REG? NO? NO MENTION IN LAND REG?
8. Scottish and Aberdeen prices will reach another new peak in 2011, to exceed the new peak set in 2010. Aberdeen prices will exceed 2007's peak plus 5%.
Got that one wrong. Scottish prices were flat to slightly down this year.
:rotfl:YOU FORGOT THE BIT WHERE THE NEW PEAKS DROP OUT AGAIN IN A MATTER OF MONTHS. AGAIN.
9. Oil will cross $100 a barrel, and the world won't end.
True
GOSH. THE WORLD WON'T END. YOU CALLED IT BUDDY.
10. The Eurozone will continue to have problems, but will survive. The sovereign debt crisis will be averted through ongoing bailouts. Collective self interest will prevail.
True
I'LL GIVE YOU THIS ONE.
11. Unemployment will peak at 2.75 million, private sector job growth will pick up the slack from public sector cuts. There will be no mass redundancies, most will be done through natural attrition, and public sector losses will end up being less than currently projected due to better than expected economic figures.
Mostly right for most of the year.... Unemployment remains below 2.75 million, but probably hasn't yet peaked so too early to call. Private sector growth did pick up the slack for the first half of the year, but not for the last quarter. There were no mass redundancies and the majority of losses were from natural attrition, job losses were lower than expected but not because of better than expected economic results, more due to political U-turns.
:rotfl:MOSTLY RIGHT FOR MOST OF THE YEAR. A FUNNY WAY OF SAYING YOU WERE WRONG.
12. UK economic recovery will continue, True
and will in fact be slightly better than currently expected.
Nope, got that one wrong
SHOULD HAVE STUCK WITH PREDICTIONS LIKE "THE WORLD WONT END"
2012 predictions to follow.....0 -
Hi Hamish
I reckon you're going a bit easy on yourself in your claim to have 2 & 3 right, especially 3. Politicians want 2 mutually exclusive things to happen: more lending and higher reserves. The higher reserves bit is being put into law whereas the former is posturing. Unsurprisingly the law won out.
Despite that, a good set of predictions. Better than me. I have a funny feeling that the 'real economy' is going to do better. Than expected this year and Government finances significantly worse. The US economy is showing signs of bouncing back. Why lend to sovereign basket cases if you can buy a part of a solid, profit making business?0 -
I'm pretty sure that every member of the Govt continues to blame Labour for everything that has gone wrong sice they took power. Apparently absolutely nothing is their fault! Ever!
I predict that they'll still be blaming Labour in May 2015 when the country goes to the polls.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »7. House prices. They'll end the year somewhere in a range from +2% to -3%.
Well, the final indices of the year are in and the results are:
Nationwide-- +1% Year on Year
Halifax-- -1% Year on Year
Land Registry-- -1.9% Year on Year.
Not bad at all.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
2011 predictions:
1. The Coalition will survive the year in fact the term IMO
2. Labour have already been blamed, condems will use this as an opportunity to turn this around, or face political suicide for trying and failing, it HAS to work
3. Tories will continue to support the banks so long as they support the economy rather than shareholders who wouldnt have a bean if it wasnt for a bail out.
4. The "Austerity Agenda" will fail in the short term, but long term everyone will realise it was the right thing to do, as China is beginning to limit growth in their country where possible
5. BOEBR will remain stable, with possibly a token 0-25% increase in September/ October 2011, to show things are looking up, and send out the right positivity, and the strength of the economy to be able to do it
6. There will be no double dip recession, but very slow growth, it had its chance, we probably have labour to thank for holding back on pubic sector cuts, until there was a private sector recovery (everyone gets their turn).
7. House prices will continue to fluctuate mildly. Small falls over winter, small rises in spring & summer. They'll end the year somewhere in a range from 0 to -2% from now (land registry).
8. No idea about scotland, however, there football team will continue to under perform
9. Oil will rise, as its currently in a bubble, but in my local environment, its thought it will stabalise somewhat around 60 to 70 dollars a barrel over the long term. There is overcapacity in a lot of markets, people WILL use less fuel, etc.
10. The Eurozone will still retain the Euro, and Germany will try to strengthen their position.
11. Unemployment will peak at in Q3 2011, private sector job growth will pick up the slack from public sector cuts. nothing to see here. Most will be through natural loss, retirement, but with more receiving a payout now, than in the past, due to law changes regarding compulsory retirement.
12. UK economic recovery will continue, but slowly.
13. One premiership or ex football team during 2011/12 will go into administration.
Not a bad prediction... unfortunately the prem team likely to go into admin is my team, Birmingham... lolPlan
1) Get most competitive Lifetime Mortgage (Done)
2) Make healthy savings, spend wisely (Doing)
3) Ensure healthy pension fund - (Doing)
4) Ensure house is nice, suitable, safe, and located - (Done)
5) Keep everyone happy, healthy and entertained (Done, Doing, Going to do)0
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