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Halifax +1.1% (YoY -12.1%)
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Well this was my quote on the thread from yesterday....
Ironically PB has shown more drops in the last few days than I've seen for a couple of months(due to more supply/less buyers ?), the rate cuts that have now fed through have stopped the crash pretty much in it's tracks, which is what the government wanted I guess, I still feel pressure is building behind the dam though from very weak fundamentals, so I guess we will see, I will admit defeat but only if things are the same now in 18 months time.
The feeling is, they won't be. The borrowed money will have stopped and that massive bill will be starting to be paid back, a double whammy, along with commodity inflation and wage cuts (due to tax). I'm happy to sit tight for now.
Edit. Looks like my thanks will be down today, all the bears have gone into hiding.:D
I've thanked you for sticking by your convictions
I respect that. “I could see that, if not actually disgruntled, he was far from being gruntled.” - P.G. Wodehouse0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »If unmployment can surge by the amount it is, our debt can be as bad as it is, and house prices as expensive as they are, and they can STILL rise, then maybe with all the intervention, things just won't pan out the way I foresaw them too.
I'm still not sure how it can work this way, what with the shambolic mess we are in, but just because I don't understand how it can work, it doesn't mean it isnt working.
Keep the faith Graham, at least for another 18 months, the key word is 'borrowing'. Here is an example.
Your next door neighbour borrows 50k unknowingly to you, you know they've always been average type person, with an average car etc.... all of a sudden a new car turns up on the drive, you see you neighbour in designer clothes, he mentions he is flying to Hawaii for a 3 week holiday....... you think bloody hell, the guy is loaded, did he win the lotto ?, did he get a promotion at work ?
In actual fact he borrowed the money to look good and give an impression of 'doing well', eventually the bill comes in, he's skint and can't even afford to shop at Aldi.
This is the UK now, instead of facing up to the problems now, the government have kicked it into the long grass, hoping that 'the false recovery' will hoodwink enough people for them to win the election. The big problems then start.0 -
Even if the crash is over, it will go down in history worse then the 90s crash. The 1990s peak-to-trough was around 14% according to the Halifax, whereas this time it's over 20%.
Yer, definately. But in terms of the correction, compared to the boom, the 20% down is nothing.
That's why I don't understand how we can possibly carry on in the mess we were in which caused all this.
You only have to look at the FTSE recently, bit of bad news and up it shoots. Nothing can shake the markets at the moment it seems, no matter what comes out....it seems optimism is knocking every bit of bad news out the way and surging forward.
I personally feel it's about time I stuck my hands up, admit I was wrong (as I didn't think intervention could go this far) and I suppose, just look at it from a selfish point of view and think "well least I'm probably not in neg eq anymore".0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »I was calling it a spring bounce / bull trap, but I'm really not sure anymore.
how can you change your view when- All the fundamentals haven't changed, nothing has really changed in underlying economic terms
- More properties will hit the market and there will no longer be a lack of supply
- The banks may now get tough on repos.
- Rates are low
- There is demand from people who will see that property is at a good price at the moment
- The banks may start to lend due to government intervention and QE can stop.
make your own mind up.
Have a look at the P/E ratio (forget however it's calculated) for some people it's the best opportunity in their generation to buy property and they are making the most of it.
http://www.gscape.com/images/econ/charts/HalifaxPERatio0709.gif0 -
Keep the faith Graham, at least for another 18 months, the key word is 'borrowing'. Here is an example.
Your next door neighbour borrows 50k unknowingly to you, you know they've always been average type person, with an average car etc.... all of a sudden a new car turns up on the drive, you see you neighbour in designer clothes, he mentions he is flying to Hawaii for a 3 week holiday....... you think bloody hell, the guy is loaded, did he win the lotto ?, did he get a promotion at work ?
In actual fact he borrowed the money to look good and give an impression of 'doing well', eventually the bill comes in, he's skint and can't even afford to shop at Aldi.
This is the UK now, instead of facing up to the problems now, the government have kicked it into the long grass, hoping that 'the false recovery' will hoodwink enough people for them to win the election. The big problems then start.
Yes, totally agree. However, I have been saying this for months, alongside you. We now have policies which make sure people who owe money are safe, lighter regulation on bankrupcies, easier to go bankrupt. It's easier to stop paying your mortgage but also stay in the house.
Banks have pretend money, they have stockpiled billions for bankruptcies and non payment of loans.
I'm beginging to think inflation will be the route the optimists and government now try and railroad us into, as this will allow debts to deflate over time. I don't know how else we can continue from now.
Whats more, the bulls are now trying to convince me to stay bearish
I tell yer, it's all phooked!!!0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »I personally feel it's about time I stuck my hands up, admit I was wrong (as I didn't think intervention could go this far) and I suppose, just look at it from a selfish point of view and think "well least I'm probably not in neg eq anymore".
how about if it pans out like this down 16% (previously), up 8% (now) and then down 10% (next 18 months) and HPI from 2011.
that's not you getting it wrong just maybe being "blinkered" thinking it would be straight down without other factors having an influence in house prices.0 -
This time next year, prices will be lower."The problem with quotes on the internet is that you never know whether they are genuine or not" -
Albert Einstein0 -
Have a look at the P/E ratio (forget however it's calculated) for some people it's the best opportunity in their generation to buy property and they are making the most of it.
Chucky is this graph taking into account current IR's. Just wondering if it's the same with the base rate at 4-5% and trackers and fixed rates at 6-7% and SVR's at 7%+, or whether it's solely based on current rates.0 -
.Graham_Devon wrote: »I'm beginging to think inflation will be the route the optimists and government now try and railroad us into
This is not possible as IR's will increase if inflation gets out of hand, crushing those who are over indebted, the reason inflation to reduce debts won't work nowadays is because there are no huge unions to demand 10%+ pay rises etc. I guarantee if we get inflation everyone will become poorer, whether you're indebted or not.0 -
Chucky is this graph taking into account current IR's. Just wondering if it's the same with the base rate at 4-5% and trackers and fixed rates at 6-7% and SVR's at 7%+, or whether it's solely based on current rates.
that would be affordability that would include rates - i didn't want to post that one because it looks much better
it's also creates a false impression of what is actually happening.
it's average salary vs average house price cue another discussion
check this out for the North, East Anglia, South East, London
http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/excel/01_05_09Affordability.xls
for some it's a good time but as you see for others it's not so great...0
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