House Price Crash!

meanmachine_2

Yeah, already I'm reading articles which are suggesting there is likely to be a "readjustment" of the inflation target from 2% to 2.5%.

Let's face it, they'll do anything to keep interest rates low, dissuade us from saving and try to force us into the shops.

Before long there'll be a law in which you have to spend so much of your income on the high street, and anything left over at the end of the month ends up in Gordy's large pockets.

ManAtHome

meanmachine wrote:

Before long there'll be a law in which you have to spend so much of your income on the high street

Something around 110% going by the past few years...

johnthomas_2

deemy2004 wrote:

Were moving towards a period of stagflation, which means its highly likely that interest rates will start to rise again at somepoint .... so under those circumstances, house prices are goign to have a weight around their knecks for at least a couple more years.

It is highly likely they will start to fall again at somepoint as well... why not just go with, sometime in the future house prices will go up and then at another point in the future house prices will fall, just like interest rates, and anything else associated with the economic cycle. Not exactly mystic meg is it?

EdInvestor

Looks like they're firmly on the plateau to me.

Halifax chart

deemy2004

wibble68 wrote:

At what point do you see interest rates rising?

Most economists are saying the next cut could come as early as November.

While I agree with your comments on the housing market, I can't see rates rising in the near future.

Gordon Brown and the so called independent BOE would rather see inflation way above the 2% target than allow the housing market to tumble.

Which could prove to be their undoing.

Inflation is on its way to 3%...

All the BOE cuts and recent decline in interest rate futures since the start of the year have done is to correct the UPTREND. Thats all - The trend is still UP, which is likely to resume rather than for the correction to continue i.e. further falls in interest rate futures...

Probably this time next year, interest rates will be above 5%.

deemy2004

johnthomas wrote:

It is highly likely they will start to fall again at somepoint as well... why not just go with, sometime in the future house prices will go up and then at another point in the future house prices will fall, just like interest rates, and anything else associated with the economic cycle. Not exactly mystic meg is it?

OKAY !!!.. I'll be more specific then :rolleyes:

I 'think', this time next year Interest rates will be 5.25% or higher. Ive already got bets placed on the US T Bond falling... and eyeing short sterling falling (moves inverse to UK interest rates).
The current interest rates (LIBOR) are trading at 4.60, and would imply about 5.50% on a base rate of 5.25%.

The thing that I am not quite sure about is if the FTSE will still move to above 6k as I am betting on ! :eek:, since obviously unless where going to experience unexpected economic growth (which we might do), higher interest rates is not that good for the stock market. In which case I would prefer if I was wrong on interest rates


As for house prices, a 10% drop over 2 years with inflation at say 3% implies a 17% drop in REAL terms ! So WELL worth waiting IF looking to buy and IF that is the scenerio ones working to !

What else ?

I don't give a fig about what the press or economists think interest rates will do ... By the time the Nov interest rate meeting minutes get published - perhaps then they will start talking about rising interest rates, perhaps not , who cares !

Why do I bother with trying to indentify trends ?
Obviously so I can bet money on it ..

nelly_2

deemy2004 wrote:

OKAY !!!.. I'll be more specific then :rolleyes:





Why do I bother with trying to indentify trends ?
Obviously so I can bet money on it ..

Out of interest where do you do these bets deemy, I'll take it, its not at the local bookies and what sort of returns do you expect?

IN_LIKE_EVERYONE_ELSE!

Deemy for No.11. I am convinced that we will see a "S**T FAN INTERFACE" And that is why I have bought shares in debt companies. They are going to get very busy.
Job losses every day in the press, bankruptcies, repossessions, company failures and every other negative event, it's time to wake up and smell the £3 cappucino-latte.

Have a good week.

I am solvent, renting, stoozing, without endowment, in shares and working. I consider myself very lucky indeed.

deemy2004

nelly wrote:

Out of interest where do you do these bets deemy, I'll take it, its not at the local bookies and what sort of returns do you expect?

I use Oanda and CMC for currency spot trading
I use IG Index for trading everything else.

As far as I am concerned Trading = Gambling, whether your a big bank or an individual if your trading your own money then all your doing is placing bets

As for returns ? Based on what ? since you only put up a small amount of margin, and with IG's case only if the position goes against you by a certain amount as theres a line of credit. So not a % return, since the amounts on account are enough to service open positions, no pointing in keeping excess funds in non intrest bearing accounts.
(Though Oanda pay 'some' interest)

To confess, I trade significantly less than I used to, since I took up poker .. Its a damn site easier to get a high money placing against say 500 in a tournie than try and fathom the day to day shinanigens of sterling's gyrations

lapat

i have just bought a 4 bed detached in warrington cheshire for £175k it was originally up for £196950(it does need some updating cosmetically) so i do think the market is extremeley stagnant.as that is the average for a 3 bed detached in my area and they are not selling and some have been on the market for litterally 6 months
but on the other hand i sold mine for full asking price on day 3 but it is litterally ready to walk in with having extensive work done on it and i made £57k in two years 3 months not a bad bit of profit