Graph !!!!!! 2 - The next Generation

Jonbvn

Californication wrote: »

Source: House price crash dot co dot uk (I don't have anything to do with them, though)

Assuming the red trend line is the "average" house price, it would seem that the "correct" average house price should be around GBP150k. However, at present it is just below 175k. Thereofore, a further 15% fall would be required to get on-trend. However, markets tend to over correct, so it would not be unreasonable to expect around 20% further falls?

lostinrates

Jonbvn wrote: »

Assuming the red trend line is the "average" house price, it would seem that the "correct" average house price should be around GBP150k. However, at present it is just below 175k. Thereofore, a further 15% fall would be required to get on-trend. However, markets tend to over correct, so it would not be unreasonable to expect around 20% further falls?

I dunno. The problem with all of this is of course, the answer too...the averages and the statistics. Its all very well to look at the average price, but then I suppose one needs to compare that with average affordability. No point the houses falling to the convenient place on the graph if people are still struggling to pay that.

Personally having thought about this I feel those waiting to buy are best served by a longer crash, regardless of the decline steepness, because people waiting to sell will struggle for a certain amount of time, and then start robbing Peter to pay Paul and will be abe to hold together for a while where as if this appears to have set in they may be better advised to cut their losses. I might have got this dramatially wrong though.

poppy10_2

BBC has a new graph for you all



Same data as:

Chris2685

Funny how graphs can be altered to make them seem better isn't it

obsessed_saver

Nationwide September figures: -12.4% YoY, -1.7% MoM.

baby_boomer

Oh noes!

What will we do when the graph stops going down at about 14.5% in October

BettiePage

obsessed_saver wrote: »

Nationwide September figures: -12.4% YoY, -1.7% MoM.

Thanks for posting this.

Chris2685

baby_boomer wrote: »

Oh noes!

What will we do when the graph stops going down at about 14.5% in October

Hopefully most people will realise that a 14.5% drop is a 14.5% drop, even if it is a horizontal line of constant 14.5% drops

dopester

Jonbvn wrote: »

Assuming the red trend line is the "average" house price, it would seem that the "correct" average house price should be around GBP150k.

Someone here made the point that it wouldn't be a "trend line" unless prices sometimes fell below that line for lengths/years of time.

mewbie_2

As I have no mathematical or economic sense at all, but I do like looking at pretty pictures - I would like it if someone could run a line through the three low points on that graph. As a layman in these things would that give a visual indication of just how low the bottom could be on the dip?