Nationwide. 29 May 2008. -2.5 (month) -4.4 (year)

carolt

That's a cunning idea. Invent an imaginary friend if you haven't got any real ones...

carolt

wisbech_lad wrote: »

Maybe it really is different this time? I am surprised by the speed of the nominal fall. Possibly what is different this time is high RPI inflation without compensatory income inflation, so disposable income (from what one can pay out from for mortgage) is being squeezed too (real falls in income)
1989-1993, if you were in a job, pay kept up well with inflation, so it was people losing jobs that drove the declines. This time, the hits look to be bigger, faster

So, so true. And so often overlooked.

ianmr65

:eek:

!!!!!!? wrote: »

As for the first, maybe - but anyone who bought since 05 is royally screwed. That's a lot of people. Throw in huge amounts of personal debt which also has to be serviced and the idea that people have more equity to play with looks distinctly dodgy too.

Not quite all ftb.. here at imrtowers we sold at the peak in london aug 2007, and bought at well past peak up north. 20% ltv...small mortgage...paid off debts ect..... though i agree with all of that...for the majoprity... sorry been away for a well earned mini break in the highlands... no internet access...

a few thoughts... on the figures, 2.2% is about double what we would be expecting for a 25% drop from peak, over two years... this makes 25% look optimistic :eek:

the banks have succesfully applied for and got, court order charges on property for unsecured debt, makes your statement above doubly alarming.

:eek: :eek:

the impending recession, has yet to bite, and employment remains boyant, when when lay-offs start to catch up with sales figures... expect mayhem to ensue... :eek: :eek: :eek:

Ee

WTF?_2

ianmr65 wrote: »

:eek:

Not quite all ftb.. here at imrtowers we sold at the peak in london aug 2007, and bought at well past peak up north. 20% ltv...small mortgage...paid off debts ect..... though i agree with all of that...for the majoprity... sorry been away for a well earned mini break in the highlands... no internet access...

Yeah - but you essentially downsized which exactly what you do want to do at the peak.

mr.broderick

neas wrote: »

sweet satisfaction . I'd love to see how mr broderick spins this one :P.

On average they are still 10% higher than 3 years ago ?

phlash

mr.broderick wrote: »

On average they are still 10% higher than 3 years ago ?

Let me reverse that very slow spinning ball you just tossed.

3 years of inflation equates to [(214-191.6)/191.6] 11.69% [1]

So what your saying is, in three years we've had real house price falls of (10%-11.69%) -1.69%

I think you need some more practice mr b, get yourself down the nets young sir.

Ref [1]: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_economy/RP02.pdf

mr.broderick

phlash wrote: »

Let me reverse that very slow spinning ball you just tossed.

3 years of inflation equates to [(214-191.6)/191.6] 11.69% [1]

So what your saying is, in three years we've had real house price falls of (10%-11.69%) -1.69%

I think you need some more practice mr b, get yourself down the nets young sir.

Ref [1]: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_economy/RP02.pdf

Hehe i've missed you phlash.

phlash

mr.broderick wrote: »

Hehe i've missed you phlash.

I've been lurking and mostly chuckling at your stronger sense of denial.

carolt

carolt wrote: »

Anyone got the 'real' figures rather than just rolling 3 monthly figures they use?

Sorry to quote myself, but I've just answered my own question at last - in case anyone else is interested:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=A1YourView&xml=/money/2008/05/30/cnhouses130.xml

"Take out the smoothing effect that Nationwide's seasonal variation model produces and the underlying fall was 2.8pc."

carolt

King_Of_Fools wrote: »

That was the Halifax that did that to smooth out the volatility.

See above.