Nationwide. 29 May 2008. -2.5 (month) -4.4 (year)

King_Of_Fools

!!!!!!? wrote: »

"Secondly, today's borrowers have typically put down a larger deposit than their 1980s counterparts," she added.

I wondered what measure they used to quantify "larger".

In the 80s if I had put down a 10% deposit on a £60k house it would only be £6k. If I had put down a 5% deposit on a £200k house today it would be £10k, which is larger than £6k! :rolleyes:

meester

I am luvving it.
Incidentally, stories like this one:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7412091.stm

The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) has predicted a 7% drop in UK house prices during 2008.
look pretty stupid now.

Only 7%? We'll get that in April, May and June alone.

Snooze

It's gone strangely quiet from Mr. Broderick and Pickles. Anyone any ideas why?

:rotfl:

Rob

poppy10_2

Spot the lies/spin in this graph from the Nationwide report:

"Fewer homeowners bought at the top of the market in this cycle. A comparison of turnover rates, which take into account growth in the markets over time, shows that a far higher proportion of homeowners bought at the very top of the market in the 1980s. In contrast the turnover rate at the peak of this cycle was only marginally above the long term average. This means a much smaller proportion of borrowers face the full effect of falls in prices than was the case in the 1990s."

phil_b_2

I'll be the first to admit i've been bull'ish in my views, but I cant mantain confidence in the market or economy any longer really.

There were barely any FTB's due to the unavailability of credit before, now there will be NONE! Who the hell is going to buy into a rapidly declining market? I can see it getting worse.

Even if monthly falls slow down by over half to 1%, we'll still see over 10% overall drops by the end of the year.

It was so interesting awaiting this months figures, I'll just be on complete tenterhooks to see what the hell gets published at the end of next month. I think those will be more decisive, indicating whether this whole debacle is in fact gathering pace.

I'm also very interested to see how sellers react. We could see a lot of properties withdrawn from the market, rented out, or none coming onto it much at all. That would have a big impact.

mitchaa

Even if we do see 10% drops by the end of the year on the average property value, it's still got a long way to fall in order to suit many peoples predictions of 50+%

Is 20-25% more of a better estimate? I would say so.

Generali

mitchaa wrote: »

Even if we do see 10% drops by the end of the year on the average property value, it's still got a long way to fall in order to suit many peoples predictions of 50+%

Is 20-25% more of a better estimate? I would say so.

My guess (and it's only a guess) is a real fall of 30% on average over 2-3 years. Gross rental yields need to get to about 8-10% I guess before proper investors, as opposed to One Man and His Mortgage, start buying.

The trouble with predicting calamity (50% falls, 80% falls etc) is that it so rarely happens. The economy has a wonderful way of righting itself so long as you don't do anything stupid (protectionism, socialism and printing money are the obvious errors).

MissMoneypenny

phil_b wrote: »

I'm also very interested to see how sellers react. We could see a lot of properties withdrawn from the market, rented out, or none coming onto it much at all. That would have a big impact.

I wonder how many people are renting out their houses as they can't sell and are buying another and how this will impact on the market? They will be offering better quality properties to the renters than the run of the mill BTL houses. So if there aren't enough renters, the BTL LLs will be losing out.

pickles110564

Snooze wrote: »

It's gone strangely quiet from Mr. Broderick and Pickles. Anyone any ideas why?

:rotfl:

Rob

Still here but unlike some of you dossers I still have to go to work

3under3

That's much bigger than I thought it would be! Interesting to see they are still only predicting single digit falls for the whole year though??? Wonder how they work that one out..

The 4 bed semi I "need" for my family is getting closer in range by the month...