The Era of "easy oil" is over

WTF?_2

posh*spice wrote: »

We don't have to wait that long!:D Oil just fell 6$.:T

Must've been the Glorious Leader's pronouncement that high oil prices were here to stay

Well done Gordon, you set out to try to lower the prices and you succeeded!

(high oil prices are here to stay however, just not this high at this time)

beingjdc

setmefree2 wrote: »

Most peak oil predictions have not taken into account the massive increase in demand from China and India I don't think. I havn't seen a recent calculation for peak oil which takes this into account, has anyone else?

Given that peak oil is a supply issue, I don't think demand really changes it. It could bring it sooner if the demand was fully met, but if it's destroyed by rising prices as some suppliers keep production at a plateau rather than pushing it higher in the short-term, then the dates stay the same.

beingjdc

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

this comment shows that you really do not know the amount of "ponds" or "lakes" are out there and just wanted your comment to sound poetic

Well, the world's biggest field produced 1 barrel in every 20 on the planet, and that's just one. Take the top 3 and you're probably at about 1 in 10.

That's a lot of ponds you'll be needing.

Tozer

Phirefly wrote: »

How tedious. You've completely missed my point. I'm not saying that including the issue of 'global warming' isn't relevant because its a housing based forum and we shouldn't digress.

Sorry but the point couldn't have been made very clearly then.

This ignorance is worrying. The concept of "global warming" has widely been discredited and dropped. Therefore it has no place in this discussion. Even Tabloid McDonald and the Daily hate Mail have dropped the term from their chicken licken vocabularies.

We may indeed be facing a period of climate change. The extent of mans' contribution to this is an inconclusive argument and the only fact is that neither you nor I can prove it either way.

Thats why I balk when terms like 'global warming' are flippantly dropped into such a debate.

I think you will find that, on balance, most people believe that man-created carbon emissions contribute significantly to global warming.

Oh, and I am certainly not "ignorant" thanks.

beingjdc

Looks warmer to me!

http://chriscolose.files.wordpress.com/2008/02/670px-instrumental_temperature_record.png?w=615&h=485

posh*spice

!!!!!!? wrote: »

We'll just have to adjust to a different style of living. A lot of people are set to become very noticeably 'poor' having had the veneer of being quite well off in the last five or six years. Actually, that could be a good metaphor for the Western World.

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1807697,00.html

Is this the sort of thing you mean? Has the West lost influence?

BACKFRMTHEEDGE

beingjdc wrote: »

Then the futures price would rise, but the spot price wouldn't, and the spot price would then collapse as all the people who had bought speculative oil would need to sell their real oil to actual end users.

That's the point, a bubble in short-dated futures of a fungible commodity can only last a few months if it isn't supported by fundamentals or stockpiling, as the reality reasserts itself

Maybe these hedge funds, etc are just taking this risk then hoping it will pay off. Bit like buying a lottery ticket?

beingjdc

BACKFRMTHEEDGE wrote: »

Maybe these hedge funds, etc are just taking this risk then hoping it will pay off. Bit like buying a lottery ticket?

Yes, they might be. My point is the 'headline' price of oil is for delivery in two months. So look at the price right now, that's for delivery in July. So the oil being delivered now was bought at the March price.

If they're managing to sell it all at the new price, it means the March price wasn't a bubble - if it was, there'd be too much oil and nobody buying it, and the spot price would collapse.

So we know $100 a barrel wasn't a bubble (which isn't to say it can't fall in the future if a recession causes demand to fall, or some new supply appears).

We'll find out in July whether $130 is a bubble.

BACKFRMTHEEDGE

"By purchasing large numbers of futures contracts, and thereby pushing up futures prices to even higher levels than current prices, speculators have provided a financial incentive for oil companies to buy even more oil and place it in storage. A refiner will purchase extra oil today, even if it costs $115 per barrel, if the futures price is even higher.

As a result, over the past two years crude oil inventories have been steadily growing, resulting in US crude oil inventories that are now higher than at any time in the previous eight years. The large influx of speculative investment into oil futures has led to a situation where we have both high supplies of crude oil and high crude oil prices." Asian Times Article



But
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7339337.stm
Falling stocks push oil to $112

Sorry if I'm missing the point here. I'm just trying to establish if there are is a pile of oil somewhere - so bare with me if I'm abit slow...I'll catch up in a minute:D

beingjdc

Backfromtheedge - you want this, I think:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/txt/wpsr.txt

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 5.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 320.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the middle of the average range for this time of year.