The Era of "easy oil" is over

Phirefly

Tozer wrote: »

I think you will find that, on balance, most people believe that man-created carbon emissions contribute significantly to global warming.

Since when does "most people" believing something mean that its true?!

jamtart6

ixwood wrote: »

The cheap oil price meant it wasn;t worth trying,

There is some development happening now. Algae farms etc.

Yeah but we knew it was a finite resource...i know its probably happened more quickly than anticipated but thats due to increasing populations (and ageing ones too) which were projected anyway, so IMHO we should have been developing things more quickly and earlier.

Notice how everything takes years to put into place?? G.Brown on the telly last night is changing legislation for oil fields in the North Sea, which should come into play in the next 8 years. EIGHT YEARS?! when we'll be paying over a fiver a litre no doubt!

BACKFRMTHEEDGE

http://www-static.shell.com/static/aboutshell/downloads/our_strategy/shell_global_scenarios/shell_energy_scenarios_2050.pdf


Thought this might interest some. It's a report from Shell called "Shell energy scenerios 2050".....of course I'm not sure I'll be around in 2050:rotfl::rotfl:

adr0ck

Oliveru wrote: »

. However saying that I do wish the UK was flooded out of existence haha.

it won't be the UK

just most of England

BACKFRMTHEEDGE

beingjdc wrote: »

Then the futures price would rise, but the spot price wouldn't, and the spot price would then collapse as all the people who had bought speculative oil would need to sell their real oil to actual end users.

That's the point, a bubble in short-dated futures of a fungible commodity can only last a few months if it isn't supported by fundamentals or stockpiling, as the reality reasserts itself (unlike housing where a bubble can last ages).

A mate of mine is a trader and closed the wrong futures contract and very nearly had to take physical delivery. I found it hilarious.

Hi beingjdc,

Found something that confirms your argument. It's from this:-

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/4007#more

QUOTE from the oil drum forum
"
Speculation
Financial speculation in oil futures is being offered increasingly as the reason for high oil prices. True, speculation is rife. However, the futures market is a zero sum game. For every long position there is a short position and the price is ultimately struck by the individual who takes delivery of the oil - which is then refined and purchased by a consumer. For so long as consumers keep demanding oil at ever higher prices, the price will continue to rise.
The only way speculation could impact the oil price is under accumulation. Inventories of crude oil and refined products have been falling for a year (see figures 14 to 17).

"

Snooze

Oliveru wrote: »

However saying that I do wish the UK was flooded out of existence haha.

:huh:

Er, right, okay. Cheers for that.. :rolleyes:

Rob

ixwood

jamtart6 wrote: »

Yeah but we knew it was a finite resource...i know its probably happened more quickly than anticipated but thats due to increasing populations (and ageing ones too) which were projected anyway, so IMHO we should have been developing things more quickly and earlier.

Notice how everything takes years to put into place?? G.Brown on the telly last night is changing legislation for oil fields in the North Sea, which should come into play in the next 8 years. EIGHT YEARS?! when we'll be paying over a fiver a litre no doubt!

Well yeah, you'd think! That would be the sensible approach for sure. Sadly our world doesn't work like that.

Our intrinsically flawed democracy (either one lot of self serving, short term, clueless, over privileged, greedy, egotistical idiots or another lot of self serving, clueless, greedy, egotistical idiots) is by design incredibly short sighted.

Bumbling idiots like Brown will say or do anything for their own short term interests and have no interest whatsoever in a a long term strategy or the future costs/impacts of their decisions/non decisions. Tomorrow headlines mostly and at most whenever the next election is sadly as all they're care about.

Also the blind belief that capitalism/business will solve any problem put before us is also deeply flawed in my opinion. Businesses want to make money not solve (very difficult) problems. Trying to create sustainable power sources isn't easy or cheap. With massive costs, a very high probability of failure and little chance of economic success anyway when competing against very cheap non renewable sources, why bother?

Business often obstructs progress if it's not in their interest and the politicians are in their pockets (politics bizarrely requires high amounts of money these days and who's got that?).

Didn't oil and car companies buy up new technologies and deliberately shelve them years ago? I'm sure I remember reading about that somewhere.

I read a investing article years ago that was basically suggested investing in security/arms companies rather than research firms as a response to climate change. It was quite depressing.

If oil stays high, more will happen slowly, but it'll probably be too little too late when you consider the vast scale of the problems facing us. We need a long term strategy in what is going to be the most challenging century ever.

I do sometimes think it's be great if all the real normal people combined into a collective force and took control back from self serving politicians and big business.

They should answer to us and act for the country's/peoples best interest. Is it too much to ask for really?

borntobefree

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7424989.stm

Oil falls sharply on dollar rally

Generali

ixwood wrote: »

Well yeah, you'd think! That would be the sensible approach for sure. Sadly our world doesn't work like that.

Our intrinsically flawed democracy (either one lot of self serving, short term, clueless, over privileged, greedy, egotistical idiots or another lot of self serving, clueless, greedy, egotistical idiots) is by design incredibly short sighted.

Bumbling idiots like Brown will say or do anything for their own short term interests and have no interest whatsoever in a a long term strategy or the future costs/impacts of their decisions/non decisions. Tomorrow headlines mostly and at most whenever the next election is sadly as all they're care about.

Also the blind belief that capitalism/business will solve any problem put before us is also deeply flawed in my opinion. Businesses want to make money not solve (very difficult) problems. Trying to create sustainable power sources isn't easy or cheap. With massive costs, a very high probability of failure and little chance of economic success anyway when competing against very cheap non renewable sources, why bother?

Business often obstructs progress if it's not in their interest and the politicians are in their pockets (politics bizarrely requires high amounts of money these days and who's got that?).

Didn't oil and car companies buy up new technologies and deliberately shelve them years ago? I'm sure I remember reading about that somewhere.

I read a investing article years ago that was basically suggested investing in security/arms companies rather than research firms as a response to climate change. It was quite depressing.

If oil stays high, more will happen slowly, but it'll probably be too little too late when you consider the vast scale of the problems facing us. We need a long term strategy in what is going to be the most challenging century ever.

I do sometimes think it's be great if all the real normal people combined into a collective force and took control back from self serving politicians and big business.

They should answer to us and act for the country's/peoples best interest. Is it too much to ask for really?

The problem is, what would you replace capitalism with? Socialism (the obvious coice) has brought to us the delights of (in no particular order) Chairman Mao, General Secretary Stalin and Chancellor Hitler. Pol Pot and Chauchescu were mere footnotes.

It isn't possible to answer to the people and give the people what's best for them because the question is always, 'What will you give me?' swiftly followed by 'Why won't you give me more?'

Capitalist liberal democracy is the best system we have right now and the best that's ever been known. Socialism is seductive but leads to serfdom. Everything else has been bonkers or is small groups of people catching food with sticks.

WTF?_2

borntobefree wrote: »

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7424989.stm

Oil falls sharply on dollar rally

Of course, if the dollar has rallied then it costs you more of your local currency to buy the dollars with which you buy the oil.