The Era of "easy oil" is over

beingjdc

Yeah I did some maths and don't take it from me because I'm an amateur, it looks very much like the current equilibrium price of oil in the short-term if there are no above-ground demand shocks, no massive growth spurts but no huge recession is about $90 a barrel. So I'd expect it not to fall far below $100 if there isn't a recession (since there'll always be *some* above-ground screw-ups) but probably not go too far back above $130 in the next 18 months or so.

Geenie

setmefree2 wrote: »

I would definitely consider buying solar panels. Of course because I'm MSE it will be on a savings basis not a green basis, (is that bad?). When my electricity bills get high I will buy panels. Also, they are still expensive and might come down in price. Additionally, the technology might become better and panels in the future maybe better quality.
I don't think I would have windmills on my house as they are supposed to be noisey.
In fact, if I wasn't trying to clear my mortgage - (don't want to have debt when we hit peak oil - I'll need all my money to buy food) I would probaby buy some shares in companies making solar panels.

We had solar panels installed on a previous property over 20 years ago. They are a long, long term investment best suited to a climate that is proven to be in global warming and very hot for more then 4 weeks of the year!

My OH is green to the point of being a pain in the !!!!! I have put up with low energy light bulbs, solar panels, recycling, wood chip boilers, but selling our 2 litre car for a 1.4 has taken the biscuit!!
I have to get the kids out to push if we encounter a hill!

setmefree2

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Of course, if the dollar has rallied then it costs you more of your local currency to buy the dollars with which you buy the oil.

True but if oil can fall then we know we're not at peak oil:eek: and the rest is just economics:p

setmefree2

Geenie wrote: »

We had solar panels installed on a previous property over 20 years ago. They are a long, long term investment best suited to a climate that is proven to be in global warming and very hot for more then 4 weeks of the year!

My OH is green to the point of being a pain in the !!!!! I have put up with low energy light bulbs, solar panels, recycling, wood chip boilers, but selling our 2 litre car for a 1.4 has taken the biscuit!!
I have to get the kids out to push if we encounter a hill!

I am defo going to get solar panels when they are economical. When my kids are older I might join a car club. We have 1 car (2 litre engine - wll there are 4 of us:p) and don't use it very much, which can mean we have problems keeping the battery charged. I think that being MSE and green probably go hand in hand. I want to consume less as I want to gt rid of my mortgage:D

All the Best

SMF2

ixwood

Generali wrote: »

The problem is, what would you replace capitalism with? Socialism (the obvious coice) has brought to us the delights of (in no particular order) Chairman Mao, General Secretary Stalin and Chancellor Hitler. Pol Pot and Chauchescu were mere footnotes.

It isn't possible to answer to the people and give the people what's best for them because the question is always, 'What will you give me?' swiftly followed by 'Why won't you give me more?'

Capitalist liberal democracy is the best system we have right now and the best that's ever been known. Socialism is seductive but leads to serfdom. Everything else has been bonkers or is small groups of people catching food with sticks.

I'm not saying ditch capitalist democracy, just that it's sadly not very good at long term strategy.

The only way to really change things to to collectively force the politicians and big business to act in our interests (be making it clear their short term interests lie with our long term ones). They're very weak and short-sighted. Brown and Darling constantly prove that with their pandering to headlines continuously. If 10m people said do this or don't do that (or else), they'd have no choice but to listen.

Obviously, getting 10m people on board and agreeing to sensible policies would be the hard bit. lol.

As an aside, China is interesting at the mo. I think it was !!!!!! that pointed out they had recently had a planning meeting setting the aims and strategy for the next 10 years. Our shoddy lot couldn't plan 10 days ahead! Now, I'm obviously not suggesting we'd be better off under a communist regime, but it's interesting all the same.

I wonder if china wil crash and burn or if it really is the next superpower in waiting?

Russia too have made solid long term plans and are planning to regain their previous might via being an energy super power.

Maybe some dodgy dictator might not be so bad after all. Though doubt it'd be so easy without massive energy reserves.

BACKFRMTHEEDGE

beingjdc wrote: »

Yeah I did some maths and don't take it from me because I'm an amateur, it looks very much like the current equilibrium price of oil in the short-term if there are no above-ground demand shocks, no massive growth spurts but no huge recession is about $90 a barrel. So I'd expect it not to fall far below $100 if there isn't a recession (since there'll always be *some* above-ground screw-ups) but probably not go too far back above $130 in the next 18 months or so.

If the $135 was a future price and not a spot price, and oil has fallen back to $125 and stays there. Does that mean when the oil at $135 comes to market that that has a further depressing ressure on the value on oil? So in a couple of months could we see a sort of glut? Just wondered...:D

BACKFRMTHEEDGE

ixwood wrote: »

Russia too have made solid long term plans and are planning to regain their previous might via being an energy super power.

Of them all I find Russia the most scary & threatening. Obviously, not the individual Russian people - just the govt. But maybe this is because I was brought in the cold war era and still havn't got over the nuclear nightmares I used to have...:rolleyes:

It's ironic that the Chinese are giving up their bikes for cars and we are all going to be getting a push bike for xmas....

poppysarah

No one's done a horror film about oil running out have they? There's that awful film set in sheffield about nuclear war - what's it called?

harryhound

Geenie wrote: »

My OH is green to the point of being a pain in the !!!!! I have put up with low energy light bulbs, solar panels, recycling, wood chip boilers, but selling our 2 litre car for a 1.4 has taken the biscuit!!
I have to get the kids out to push if we encounter a hill!

I've never had a 2 litre car.
My cars were 0.850, 0.995, 0.850, 1.0, 1.0, 1.6, 1.6 (If I remember correctly)

The current one produces 159 gm CO2/Km.

Do you have three or more children?

Sometimes we used to need a roof rack for holiday's etc but otherwise all of them were more than adequate even for a family of 4.

Low energy light bulbs I've got these - no problems though LED's are not yet acceptable.
Solar panels (for hot water)Probably marginally economic now on my 30 degree SSW facing roof - might have to cut the tree a bit though.
Recycling - No hardship surely - though I do wish envelopes were put together with dissolving windows & without "rubber" glue. Even the stamps come with this now - but you cannot expect joined up government.
Wood Chip Boilers - Have you got one of these? "Which?" has been looking for people with practical experience. Where do you keep the (I'm guessing) 7 cubic meters of chips dry for the winter. How stable will their price be?
I'm still thinking Ground Source Heat Pump.

Geenie

harryhound wrote: »

I've never had a 2 litre car.
My cars were 0.850, 0.995, 0.850, 1.0, 1.0, 1.6, 1.6 (If I remember correctly)

The current one produces 159 gm CO2/Km.

Do you have three or more children?

Sometimes we used to need a roof rack for holiday's etc but otherwise all of them were more than adequate even for a family of 4.

Low energy light bulbs I've got these - no problems though LED's are not yet acceptable.
Solar panels (for hot water)Probably marginally economic now on my 30 degree SSW facing roof - might have to cut the tree a bit though.
Recycling - No hardship surely - though I do wish envelopes were pit together with dissolving windows & without "rubber" glue. Even the stamps come with this now - but you cannot expect joined up government.
Wood Chip Boilers - Have you got one of these? "Which?" has been looking for people with practical experience. Where do you keep the (I'm guessing) 7 cubic meters of chips dry for the winter. How stable will their price be?
I'm still thinking Ground Source Heat Pump.

Hi Harryhound

Family of 4 but very hilly where I live so the extra power was welcomed in the past when loaded down. But I am pleased really with the 1.4, especially because the petrol consumption has gone down dramatically and that is what we wanted.

I hated low energy bulbs because our previous place was a cottage with small windows, low ceilings and dark at the best of times, and low energy didn't give off enough light in some rooms to read properly.

Don't get me wrong, I am happy to be going greener though it has to be said that it is OH who does all of the recycling, taking loads of stuff to the local recycling centre which can't go in the boxes we get collected every week....which is a lot of things! Has to be the right sort of plastic bottles to go in the boxes, and that is only one at the moment!! :rolleyes:

We are in the process of having the wood chip boiler installed at the moment, so haven't seen it up and running yet but have high hopes when it does in a few weeks time hopefully, not least because it comes from Germany and they are pretty darn efficient with most things! We live on a farm so have a large barn to store the chip in and also our own woods, so this has made the decision to go for it easier then it would be for others. Plus our oil bills have been horrendous and are only likely to get worse over the coming years, so it seemed like a good step for us to take now.

Will take a look at the Which thing, but I think we will need at least a year of using it before we can say for sure what we think of the system.