The Era of "easy oil" is over

merlinthehappypig

Personally I don't think it is a spike and that we are all going to have to get used to much higher oil prices and the subsequent knock on effects.

I think it will hit $200 a barrel, but can't begin to assess the consequences for most people's everday lives. I don't see any possibility of it dropping to $100 or below. Diesel approaching £2 a litre within the next 12 months unless the Government alter the tax.

Whilst I'm in a predictive mood let's have gold at $1500+ because of the uncertainty in financial institutions as economies worsen and the pound and euro at parity within 5 years.

Unemployment in the UK starting to rise sharply in the next 12 months as the impact of the housing slump and oil prices start to bite - it's already jumped sharply to 5.5% in the USA.

I can't justify these predictions so don't ask - just a gut feeling.

Generali

merlinthehappypig wrote: »

Personally I don't think it is a spike and that we are all going to have to get used to much higher oil prices and the subsequent knock on effects.

I think it will hit $200 a barrel, but can't begin to assess the consequences for most people's everday lives. I don't see any possibility of it dropping to $100 or below. Diesel approaching £2 a litre within the next 12 months unless the Government alter the tax.

Whilst I'm in a predictive mood let's have gold at $1500+ because of the uncertainty in financial institutions as economies worsen and the pound and euro at parity within 5 years.

Unemployment in the UK starting to rise sharply in the next 12 months as the impact of the housing slump and oil prices start to bite - it's already jumped sharply to 5.5% in the USA.

I can't justify these predictions so don't ask - just a gut feeling.

You're in good company with the $200/barrel oil price. Goldmans are predicting the same thing although they see prices dropping back.

Jonbvn

So the place to be is in gold and the oilers?

I suppose I am reasonably secure working in the O&G business then?

Generali

Jonbvn wrote: »

So the place to be is in gold and the oilers?

I suppose I am reasonably secure working in the O&G business then?

Personally I wouldn't touch gold. It's too speculative as it doesn't pay an income.

I reckon oil and gas is a great business to be in right now and probably for the next 10 years.

GingerSte

Apologies if someone has mentioned this before (I haven't looked through all 8 pages), but if the price of energy goes up high enough and for long enough, do you think it would be worth reopening the coal mines dotted around the country? Heating and cooking needs can be satisfied by electricity, and so can some of our transport (trains and trolleybuses).

beingjdc

GingerSte wrote: »

Apologies if someone has mentioned this before (I haven't looked through all 8 pages), but if the price of energy goes up high enough and for long enough, do you think it would be worth reopening the coal mines dotted around the country? Heating and cooking needs can be satisfied by electricity, and so can some of our transport (trains and trolleybuses).

It might, but coal is very polluting, and English coal is full of sulphur too - we also don't have many people with mining experience any more. Oil is still significantly cheaper than bottled water...

harryhound

Was not the latest spike caused by someone from Israel saying "lets go and bomb the Persian atomic bomb project?

(Might work if they do as good a job as they did in Iraq with the French co-venture, but presumably the Iranians have diversified their bomb making effort round the country).

harryhound

beingjdc wrote: »

It might, but coal is very polluting, and English coal is full of sulphur too - we also don't have many people with mining experience any more. Oil is still significantly cheaper than bottled water...

The Chinese price of production is well below anything we can achieve by deep mining.

epz_2

beingjdc wrote: »

It might, but coal is very polluting, and English coal is full of sulphur too - we also don't have many people with mining experience any more. Oil is still significantly cheaper than bottled water...

to be honest our coal isnt that economic compared to open cast mines and 3rd world wages but the environment will very quickly when drop off the agenda when peoples standard of living starts dropping especially when you can contain and deal with pollution in remote locations such as power stations.

posh*spice

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7449781.stm

BP think it's peak oil:eek: or at least supply & demand.