The Era of "easy oil" is over

WTF?_2

posh*spice wrote: »

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7449781.stm

BP think it's peak oil:eek: or at least supply & demand.

Given that they have a vested interest in talking the market up, I'm hardly surprised.

This is no different from the bonkers housing bubble, except that the public and media get riled by rising oil prices but love rising house prices. Oh, and the fact that it will more directly and more speedily wreak damage onto the economy at large whereas the housing bubble took longer to manifest its ill-effects.


Oil will run out and it will get more and more expensive in the long term, but current prices are simply not justified by supply/demand issues.

Conrad

I think prices of everything will just keep rising now as world demand growth continues. India and China are only part of the story. Populations all over the world are on the path to modernity, from Morocco to Venuzuala.

We are entering a new reality phase. Gonme are the days we can merrily order a Halibut without any thought for diminishing supplies in the face of unsustainable demand.

Some will go to thier grave unable to grasp / accept the new realities and consider it thier right to use masses of resources - plastic bags, updating petty meaningless IT gadgets that often require a transformer burning night and day (landline phones, doorbells, computers), throw away fashion, eating fish, not turning away the MaCdonalds bag of wipes, eating a bucket of chicken from KFC or a pack of spicy wings for which several birds die just for a momentary taste sensation!

Time we all grew up

BACKFRMTHEEDGE

I think the Saudis want it all for themselves http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/7446923.stm



What's left they are going to keep .:rolleyes: Still we used all ours up and so did the Yanks.

BACKFRMTHEEDGE

Conrad wrote: »

I think prices of everything will just keep rising now as world demand growth continues. India and China are only part of the story. Populations all over the world are on the path to modernity, from Morocco to Venuzuala.

We are entering a new reality phase. Gonme are the days we can merrily order a Halibut without any thought for diminishing supplies in the face of unsustainable demand.

Some will go to thier grave unable to grasp / accept the new realities and consider it thier right to use masses of resources - plastic bags, updating petty meaningless IT gadgets that often require a transformer burning night and day (landline phones, doorbells, computers), throw away fashion, eating fish, not turning away the MaCdonalds bag of wipes, eating a bucket of chicken from KFC or a pack of spicy wings for which several birds die just for a momentary taste sensation!

Time we all grew up

Conrad, hope you don't take this the wrong way, but are you sure you are in the right job. You seem way toooooo nice to be in financial services:rotfl:

posh*spice

"The World Health Organization estimates that 38.8 million Americans are now "obese" - i.e., 30 pounds or more overweight. That factors out to 583,000 tons of body fat. Since a kilogram of human fat contains 7,200 kilocalories of energy and a barrel of oil generates 1,410,579 kilocalories, Americans are hauling around (at minimum) the fat-equivalent of 2.92 million barrels of oil on their bodies. If the concept of "flab gas" leaves you flabbergasted, prepare for a shock. Miami's Jackson Memorial Hospital reportedly has signed a deal to supply Norwegian entrepreneur Lauri Venoy with 3,000 gallons-per-week of liposuction leftovers harvested by its clinics. This bio-fat could produce 2,600 gallons of biodiesel, sufficient to fuel a Hummer for a year.":rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

I've no idea if this is true but I thought it was funny....

harryhound

A bit "gallows humour" for me.
Sort of brings an image of "Arbeit macht frei".
It is a crazy world we are living in.

m00m00

harryhound wrote: »

A bit "gallows humour" for me.
Sort of brings an image of "Arbeit macht frei".
It is a crazy world we are living in.

isn't that the name of the new tory 'back to work' program for when they get elected ?

posh*spice

beingjdc wrote: »

But if it's all been speculation, where are they putting it? If people are buying oil they don't need as a gamble, there should be huge lakes of speculative oil lying around (because until recently the price for oil STRAIGHTAWAY has been going up faster than the price for oil in 1year, 2years or 10years).

I dunno, I pay quite a lot of attention to this and it's hard to call, in my judgement peak easy oil is about now. Peak all oil is about 2012-2014. Peak everything liquid that you can set fire to and get energy out is about 2020-2025.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/01/magazines/fortune/birger_hunt.fortune/index.htm

Good article above from CNN on Hunting for the oil lakes...

Conrad

BACKFRMTHEEDGE wrote: »

Conrad, hope you don't take this the wrong way, but are you sure you are in the right job. You seem way toooooo nice to be in financial services:rotfl:

Quite fancy opening a funky sweet shop, employing a sustainable, ethical model where possible, although that will be lost on 95% of the 'Mums gone to Iceland' type customers:rolleyes:

tradetime

beingjdc wrote: »

Thing is, they've been saying that for the last year, and it's kept going up. It'll drop back for a while at some point soon, $130 a barrel isn't sustainable at the moment.

But if it's all been speculation, where are they putting it? If people are buying oil they don't need as a gamble, there should be huge lakes of speculative oil lying around (because until recently the price for oil STRAIGHTAWAY has been going up faster than the price for oil in 1year, 2years or 10years).

I dunno, I pay quite a lot of attention to this and it's hard to call, in my judgement peak easy oil is about now. Peak all oil is about 2012-2014. Peak everything liquid that you can set fire to and get energy out is about 2020-2025.

There's alway coal.

It's not necessary to store lakes of oil to speculate in it, the speculation is done in futures contracts, the purchaser of the contract has no use for oil other than its speculative value so the contract is rolled over before expiry so no physical delivery takes place. As long as there is real belief that the price will continue to rise. Now make no mistake, this is not speculation that has driven oil from $30 pbl, to where it is now, there is strong demand also, and quite tight supply, justnot to the extent for prices to be up here. IMHO oil should be somewhere around $70 - $90 pbl