The Era of "easy oil" is over

poppysarah

!!!!!!? wrote: »

The thing is that right now solar panels don't really make economic sense - they'll take years to pay for themselves by which time they will need replacing. Don't forget that it's not just solar panels, you need batteries too and some sort of dc>ac conversion system.

If the UK government decided to put a solar system on every uk household then the sums would be very sensible - see navitron.org.uk for much more sensible prices of equipment. For the cost of one nuclear power station you would create a huge solar industry going out making energy locally.

For solar hot water and on grid solar electric you don't need batteries.

We also need to be prepared to use less energy.

IveSeenTheLight

beingjdc wrote: »

South-East asia and all that - the problem is, we're finding lots of ponds, but ponds 'aint much use when the lakes are running dry.
.

this comment shows that you really do not know the amount of "ponds" or "lakes" are out there and just wanted your comment to sound poetic

Tozer

Given global warming, I wonder if the high oil price is actually a good thing to try and get people to change lifestyles and thinking. I was in the US last week and they are panicking about oil price. There is a HUGE push at the moment for cars with higher mpg's - not revolutionary in Europe but a different way of thinking in the USA.

Talking to people I was amazed that they are only now adopting basic energy saving measures (low energy lightbulbs, more efficient cars, public transport, etc).

Oil consumption is actually down 3% in the the US in Q1. As the biggest consumer of oil on a global basis, some may argue that this trend is positive - if painful.

Phirefly

Tozer wrote: »

Given global warming, I wonder if the high oil price is actually a good thing to try and get people to change lifestyles and thinking.

1. What is global warming?
2. Fuel is extortionate but have you seen any fewer cars on the road currently? I just got in from doing battle with the M1 and I can't say I've seen a reduction in volumes of traffic.

Tozer

Phirefly wrote: »

1. What is global warming?
2. Fuel is extortionate but have you seen any fewer cars on the road currently? I just got in from doing battle with the M1 and I can't say I've seen a reduction in volumes of traffic.

1. Google it. Plenty of articles! :rolleyes:

2. I'm not sure any reduction would be immediately noticeable. As I said, the US current thinking seems to be to adopt more efficient vehicles (Ford is dramatically reducing production of SUV's for example). TV adverts are really emphasising fuel economy of new cars rather than "Look at this incredible 6 litre V8 engine". That said, they have a long, long way to come.

In terms of habits in the UK, I have to say that I am changing a bit. A 300 mile round trip last week was undertaken on National Express. Ordinarily I would have driven. I'm sure I'm not alone.

posh*spice

Tozer wrote: »

In terms of habits in the UK, I have to say that I am changing a bit. A 300 mile round trip last week was undertaken on National Express. Ordinarily I would have driven. I'm sure I'm not alone.

I think I read some where - (sorry can't remember where )that the AA said road traffic was down 2%.

harryhound

Congratulation POSH on starting a run away thread – I’ve been trying to catch up since midnight. I have learned a lot, now I know about Hubbert's peak.:beer:


There are so many accounts of what is actually happening that it's difficult to fathom what the heck is going on. It's the speculators (perhaps), it's the Saudi's & opec (perhaps) or are we at the peak - the tipping point? Hubbert's peak? Does anyone know? Is it just a spike and this time next year we'll all have forgotten about it?
Anyone got any good tips on surviving a rise in oil? Anyone around in the 70's as an adult?


I’m old enough to remember the year zero oil shock – Unfortunately Uncle Sam tends to dominate everything and name everything (9/11 anybody? Let us walk in off the street and get the lift on the 1st floor?) Back in year zero, the USA was largely self sufficient in oil in fact it was largely self sufficient in everything and had trade surpluses in most things. So it was just a bit annoyed when a couple of European countries and a bunch of refugees started a Middle East war. Fortunately one small over populated country was virtually bankrupt and just the threat of US sanctions put a stop to the nonsense.
This was the last throw of the Port Out Starboard Home colonials, who had already lost the crown jewels of the Empire. They had lost the plot, even Clive of India knew that the Empire was all about making money, not imposing the mother country’s mores on the fuzzy wuzzies. Meanwhile the other European country was still wedded to introducing the concept of Libert!, egalit! & fraternit! into its colonies and integrating them with the mother country. The USA had realised that the neocolonialism of dependency plus Machiavellian “divide and rule” was a much cheaper way if keeping the third world in its place; so the US had partly triggered the situation by deciding that Nasser was not a suitable client for a cheap loan, thus forcing him to make other arrangements with the Warsaw pact & canal revenues.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Crisis

This was the time we really did end up with petrol rationing:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/november/29/newsid_3247000/3247805.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/may/14/newsid_2511000/2511733.stm

It hit a few middle class people, with only one car. The vast majority had a bike, freight could still be carried by the nationalised railway and the economy was still powered by coal.
(As a primary school kid I remember the excitement “We fought in German & in France and one day soon I night get my chance……”).
Here are the details of the next 3 oil shocks:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_energy_crisis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_spike_in_the_price_of_oil

In the UK, there have been minor shortages, but the rationing coupons printed in 1973 were eventually issued in 1979 but never actually used. Severable people bought a small second car incase of emergencies.

On a personal note, in 73 I went to a local garage and the assistant said “That is the first time I’ve put more than 10 quid’s worth of petrol in a Mini. I stacked the 150 – 200 odd liters in my garden shed, where they turned out to be a good investment.
(I would not recommend it – it is illegal and could be dangerous but we did not realise that then)

The economy suffered with stagflation through the 70’s until rescued by North Sea Oil in the 80’s. There were lots of shortages but most of these were really down to the GBP being regarded as a near third world. In 73 all the plastic manufacturers had to declare “force majeur” and ration their supplies.In the short term, there is little elasticity of demand for road fuel. As the price goes up people tend to go without something else and there was a noticeable effect on the price of the more remote properties. Personally, I moved to a rural but not remote property, 5 minutes from the bus and 10 minutes by bike from a rail station, so as to be more self sufficient if push came to shove.

Prior to 1973, there had been a property boom, I think that is when the verb “gazump” was coined. My first house bought in 1971, rose from 6K to about 11K plus and I managed to sell it in 74 for 10k. My comments on other postings are:

http://zombiehunters.org/forum/ OMG these guys are serious – don’t think our overcrowded island has this option.

The current astronomical increase in fuel prices is however just an asset class bubble, same as the housing bubble, caused by inflationary policies in the Western economies. Hopefully it won't last as long as the property bubble but I wouldn't count on fuel being exactly 'cheap' any time soon, especially as our disposable income is set to take a massive hit from higher costs of living and ever higher taxes. !!!!!! I think you have got it about right, can I add “& a depreciating currency”.
The curse of MSE has already struck and the bubble price is coming down in the short term. Remember “Cedric the pig”, who announced the wrecking of the British Gas Plc finances due to “take or pay” contracts, because like house prices energy prices never go down do they?

Passing a law to force builders to make every new home as self-sufficient for energy as possible would be a great start.I think most of this has already been done by “Part L” of the building regulations BUT the government has totally funked 90% of the problem represented by the existing stock.
(There is no joined up thinking on these but for the European requirement for an energy survey to be stored on a database and made part of the HIPS pack)

I pay quite a lot of attention to this and it's hard to call, in my judgement peak easy oil is about now. Peak all oil is about 2012-2014. Peak everything liquid that you can set fire to and get energy out is about 2020-2025. There's always coal.

(But coal gives off MORE carbon dioxide and cannot be burnt with the efficiency of gas.
So noway would that save 20% by 2020.)

With that kind of buying, you don't usually take physical delivery of anything at all? That's the point, a bubble in short-dated futures of a fungible commodity can only last a few months if it isn't supported by fundamentals or stockpiling, as the reality reasserts itself
There is a fun story about this bloke, who used to manage the finances of his college while having a daily bath. He was seen frowning and looking at the chapel.
When asked about the problem said – I’m meant to take delivery at a loss, I suppose we could fill the chapel with the stuff.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes


When my electricity bills get high I will buy panels.
Please ask your MP why the Government has allowed the suppliers to install replacements for the meters that can run backwards with one that cannot.
I would be long dead before I got my money[FONT=&quot]back[/FONT] and so would the majority of house owners as they move every 7 years or so.

The 50s? Oil was cheap in the 50s. Do you mean the 1850s?
We cannot go back to to the 50's, the world population has more than doubled since then.
There are not enough whales in the ocean to supply oil 1850's style.
It feels just like the 1930's to me. Speculation has replaced investment. The central banks will have to gang up on the speculators and burn them. But I doubt they have the resources in a world awash with hot money. Gold at 35 dollars per ounce?


Must go and tinker with the push bike.


CU
Harry

posh*spice

Whilst (from what I've read & heard ) I agree that inflated prices are probably due to speculators, I have to say that in Richard Heinberg's book "The Party's Over", he predicts that peak oil will come with a financial crisis and a food crisis. He also says that initially people will blame both/either speculators or producers. Bit spooky!:eek: Though I still do believe that it's probably a tempory spike as other posters have said. Makes you think though, this is probably what the end of the oil era will feel like...:o

posh*spice

harryhound wrote: »

Must go and tinker with the push bike.

I think I'll have to:-
1) Put a bike on my wish list this xmas
2) Buy some shares in Halfords.

Thanks for a great post Harryh.:T

Generali

Great post harryhound. I agree with some points, disagree with others. Good writing though old thing.