The Era of "easy oil" is over

setmefree2

beingjdc wrote: »

I dunno, I pay quite a lot of attention to this and it's hard to call, in my judgement peak easy oil is about now. Peak all oil is about 2012-2014.

Most peak oil predictions have not taken into account the massive increase in demand from China and India I don't think. I havn't seen a recent calculation for peak oil which takes this into account, has anyone else?

setmefree2

beingjdc wrote: »

But if it's all been speculation, where are they putting it? If people are buying oil they don't need as a gamble, there should be huge lakes of speculative oil lying around (because until recently the price for oil STRAIGHTAWAY has been going up faster than the price for oil in 1year, 2years or 10years).

The yanks don't have it, their "reported" stores have gone down - don' know about that resevoir stuff mentioned by a previous poster, anything is possible with the yanks I suppose.

Lotus-eater

setmefree2 wrote: »

Most peak oil predictions have not taken into account the massive increase in demand from China and India I don't think. I havn't seen a recent calculation for peak oil which takes this into account, has anyone else?

As Saudi aren't telling how much they have, how can anyone work out whats left?

setmefree2

beingjdc wrote: »

There's alway coal.

Sadly, coal pollutes. Also it doesn't move cars or planes. We've already seen what the small switch that the Americans have done to ethanol has done to the cost of food in the short term, though the brazilians have cars that run on both ethanol and petrol.

setmefree2

Lotus-eater wrote: »

As Saudi aren't telling how much they have, how can anyone work out whats left?

That's true. But they keep saying thay have plenty You're right though, not sure I trust them.

BACKFRMTHEEDGE

"This extreme "leverage" of 16 to one helps drive prices to wildly unrealistic levels and offset bank losses in subprime and other disasters at the expense of the overall population." Quote From the ASIAN TIMES article mentioned earlier.

Oh dear me - is this another banking crisis coming?:eek: Are the banks getting caught up in the oil bubble?

BACKFRMTHEEDGE

"The chief market strategist for one of the world's leading oil industry banks, David Kelly, of JP Morgan Funds, recently admitted something telling to the Washington Post: "One of the things I think is very important to realize is that the growth in the world oil consumption is not that strong."

One of the stories used to support the oil futures speculators is the allegation that China's demand for imported oil is exploding out of control, driving shortages in the supply-demand equilibrium. Yet the facts do not support the China demand thesis. "
QUOTE FROM THE ASIAN TIMES ARTICLE

Now seriously this is starting to sound like DENIAL

dannynixon

The Asian times article was a very good read, thank you

BACKFRMTHEEDGE

dannynixon wrote: »

The Asian times article was a very good read, thank you

Yeah - Ditto. Thanks snooze.:D;)

WTF?_2

setmefree2 wrote: »

I would definitely consider buying solar panels. Of course because I'm MSE it will be on a savings basis not a green basis, (is that bad?). When my electricity bills get high I will buy panels. Also, they are still expensive and might come down in price. Additionally, the technology might become better and panels in the future maybe better quality.
I don't think I would have windmills on my house as they are supposed to be noisey.
In fact, if I wasn't trying to clear my mortgage - (don't want to have debt when we hit peak oil - I'll need all my money to buy food) I would probaby buy some shares in companies making solar panels.

The thing is that right now solar panels don't really make economic sense - they'll take years to pay for themselves by which time they will need replacing. Don't forget that it's not just solar panels, you need batteries too and some sort of dc>ac conversion system.

Of course, if energy prices continue to rise (as they will, so long as fossil fuels are our main energy source) then the sums swing in favour of the solar panels.

It's a lot more feasible on a regular house to add those solar water heating pipes which can generally meet your hot water needs in the Spring/Summer/Autumn and help in the Winter. Also, before you do anything make sure your house is insulated to the max.


Of course, with enough cash and a newbuild house you could do a lot of interesting stuff......