The Era of "easy oil" is over

merlinthehappypig

poppysarah wrote: »

Get the UK growing it's own fruit and veg again.

Most people would need to change their diets then.

Our nearest Tescos is just up the road from Butlins. Come Saturday night it's not the fruit and veg aisles that are empty.........

Snooze

I was reading a thread on another site (oil industry related) a few days ago which asked people what their predictions would be for the future prices and the vast majority of them reckon that the prices will be dropping in the not-too-distant-future! :huh::eek:

Slightly puzzled by why so many of them thought this, I asked why and was prompted to read this article printed in the Asian Times which is a very interesting read and one that appears to be based on facts instead of the usual speculation with nothing to back it up :

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JE24Dj02.html

Up until I read this I was a believer of all this yada-yada that the world is running out of oil, it's not the Government's fault, the prices will continue to rise forever until there's none left etc.. but now I've read the facts it sounds like !!!!!!!! to me.

The bottom line appears to be that there is no oil shortage and the prices are high for 2 reasons :

1. Mass scare-mongering that we're running out of oil by those in the industry who stand to make a lot of profit from whacking up the retail prices as high as possible
2. Gordon Brown needing to refill the Government beer pot after bailing out the banks from the sub-prime.

Hmmm, it suddenly all starts to make sense....

Rob

epz_2

The thing people don't get about oil is it not a limited resource like iridium or some of the other rare and usefull (1) elements.

Oil is a cheap and easily transportable chemical energy storage medium, at least it was and that prevented anybody trying to compete against it, how can your new energy storage medium such as an exotic metal hydride compete against a deep hole in the saudi desert so why invest in it.

Now there are LOTS of social and political reasons to stop handing huge amounts of cash to corrupt dark age civilisations but thats another matter.

Think about it like this, if you could stick a wind turbine and some solar panels on your roof, it charges a magic widget which puts hydrogen into a metal powder, that powder will release hydrogen into a fuel cell on demand to heat the house or you can shovel it into your car for free travel.

Sounds far fetched right, except there are techs out there that would make that perfectly possible now and at present oil prices companies are more than happy to take a punt and that will kill oil prices in the long run.


(1) as apposed to cosmetically valuable like gold and [STRIKE]carbon[/STRIKE] diamond

ManAtHome

merlinthehappypig wrote: »

I doubt that we will slip gracefully into some happy parody of the 50's.

Too true, thinking back to some of the strokes during the "blockade" a few years back - plenty of people filling up a bootful of jerrycans as well as their tanks, streets evacuated because some numpty was storing petrol in several wheelie-bins (I kid you not).

Don't think it'll run out before me, and quite likely the bubble will pop when "the lads" decide that grand pianos are the next speculative splurge, but only back to $80-90. Not just the oil either, the transfer of wealth from west to east will continue...

WTF?_2

merlinthehappypig wrote: »

I told my Shetland ponies I'd be looking for a cart soon as they are getting a bit fat. I though I was joking.

I expected this in about 30 years time. I can't believe how quickly things are going wrong. I suspect that this is just the tip of the iceberg as well.

I seriously doubt that this is actually 'peak oil' as long feared.

However, we are entering a period of real economic pressures and the increased demand from the formerly developing nations is going to push the price of oil ever higher in the long run.

The current astronomical increase in fuel prices is however just an asset class bubble, same as the housing bubble, caused by inflationary policies in the Western economies.

Whereas the housing bubble was perceived as positive :huh: by a brainwashed public, this one is most certainly seen as a bad thing hence all the media hype and panicking. Hopefully it won't last as long as the property bubble but I wouldn't count on fuel being exactly 'cheap' any time soon, especially as our disposable income is set to take a massive hit from higher costs of living and ever higher taxes.

We'll just have to adjust to a different style of living. A lot of people are set to become very noticeably 'poor' having had the veneer of being quite well off in the last five or six years. Actually, that could be a good metaphor for the Western World.

Phirefly

!!!!!!? wrote: »

I seriously doubt that this is actually 'peak oil' as long feared.

However, we are entering a period of real economic pressures and the increased demand from the formerly developing nations is going to push the price of oil ever higher in the long run.

The current astronomical increase in fuel prices is however just an asset class bubble, same as the housing bubble, caused by inflationary policies in the Western economies.

Whereas the housing bubble was perceived as positive :huh: by a brainwashed public, this one is most certainly seen as a bad thing hence all the media hype and panicking. Hopefully it won't last as long as the property bubble but I wouldn't count on fuel being exactly 'cheap' any time soon, especially as our disposable income is set to take a massive hit from higher costs of living and ever higher taxes.

We'll just have to adjust to a different style of living. A lot of people are set to become very noticeably 'poor' having had the veneer of being quite well off in the last five or six years. Actually, that could be a good metaphor for the Western World.

Thankyou for effectively articulating what Mr P and I have just spent the last 30 minutes trying but being unable to.

merlinthehappypig

ManAtHome wrote: »

Too true, thinking back to some of the strokes during the "blockade" a few years back - plenty of people filling up a bootful of jerrycans as well as their tanks, streets evacuated because some numpty was storing petrol in several wheelie-bins (I kid you not).

Don't think it'll run out before me, and quite likely the bubble will pop when "the lads" decide that grand pianos are the next speculative splurge, but only back to $80-90. Not just the oil either, the transfer of wealth from west to east will continue...

I don't think that it will run out in the near future either or that this is 'peak oil', but given that all the major producers are doubling their income for doing exactly the same work then there isn't exactly a great incentive for them to reduce prices.

It's proved simply that most of us will pay whatever it takes to maintain our lifestyles. It shows how pointless and ineffective the Governments 'green taxes' are. The idea that sticking 2p a litre on fuel will somehow save the planet is plain daft. Fuel is up over 30p a litre since the start of the year and as a nation we are doing more miles than ever.

We have the resources and know-how to completely free us from dependency on oil and other fossil fuels, but the simple fact is that so much of the the world's economy is based on oil revenues that there is no incentive for any government to do it.

Passing a law to force builders to make every new home as self-sufficient for energy as possible would be a great start.

beingjdc

Snooze wrote: »

I was reading a thread on another site (oil industry related) a few days ago which asked people what their predictions would be for the future prices and the vast majority of them reckon that the prices will be dropping in the not-too-distant-future! :huh::eek:

Thing is, they've been saying that for the last year, and it's kept going up. It'll drop back for a while at some point soon, $130 a barrel isn't sustainable at the moment.

But if it's all been speculation, where are they putting it? If people are buying oil they don't need as a gamble, there should be huge lakes of speculative oil lying around (because until recently the price for oil STRAIGHTAWAY has been going up faster than the price for oil in 1year, 2years or 10years).

I dunno, I pay quite a lot of attention to this and it's hard to call, in my judgement peak easy oil is about now. Peak all oil is about 2012-2014. Peak everything liquid that you can set fire to and get energy out is about 2020-2025.

There's alway coal.

Snooze

beingjdc wrote: »

Thing is, they've been saying that for the last year, and it's kept going up. It'll drop back for a while at some point soon, $130 a barrel isn't sustainable at the moment.

But if it's all been speculation, where are they putting it? If people are buying oil they don't need as a gamble, there should be huge lakes of speculative oil lying around (because until recently the price for oil STRAIGHTAWAY has been going up faster than the price for oil in 1year, 2years or 10years).

I dunno, I pay quite a lot of attention to this and it's hard to call, in my judgement peak easy oil is about now. Peak all oil is about 2012-2014. Peak everything liquid that you can set fire to and get energy out is about 2020-2025.

There's alway coal.

I don't know. I'll be honest in that it's not a subject I know much about so I'm kinda at the mercy of all the other so-called know-it-alls.

I still think the Asian Times article holds more weight myself.

Rob

neverdespairgirl

beingjdc wrote: »

But if it's all been speculation, where are they putting it? If people are buying oil they don't need as a gamble, there should be huge lakes of speculative oil lying around (because until recently the price for oil STRAIGHTAWAY has been going up faster than the price for oil in 1year, 2years or 10years).

With that kind of buying, you don't usually take physical delivery of anything at all.