Sell Your House Now Or Face 80% Falls, what is YOUR prediction?

pickles110564

neas wrote: »

Im sorry but as a young pup myself houses hardly went into my thoughts when i was 21..... i was concentrating on finishing my degree and obtaining a job.

Wow clever you!
Being a thickie myself, bought my first place at 18 and after working all the hours GOD sends had paid the mortgage off by the time I was 21.
Then decided to buy another.
Glad I educated myself through the hard decisions that life throws at you.

John_Pierpoint

Hi everyone - old timers from the HPC ghetto and some new brains too.
This thread has only been going for a week and its re-covering the HPC entries very swiftly. A lot more people must be taking an interest.
Mind you the world's population has gone up 1,300,000 in the last week, and they cannot go home to Poland, that might be good news for the oil price speculators.

Might be time to re-read the thoughts of Bob Beckman:
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=827981

Being a thickie myself, bought my first place at 18 and after working all the hours GOD sends had paid the mortgage off by the time I was 21.
Then decided to buy another.
Back circa 1990, I worked with a young man like you. He had a flat on mortgage and investments worth 75K. It all fell in on itself, but being the self educated lad he was, he simply locked the front door and got a job in California.

[FONT=&quot]When I was 21, I was an expert on pretty much everything
[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Probably this is why young people can pick up new stuff, like fixing a PC, much quicker than I can. However I have experience; this in itself is dangerous as Tony Buzan pointed out; the brain is very good at forming mental clichés to speed up its responses and save on thinking time. We need a balance of both in this discussion.

[/FONT] I'm quite happy to have one child if it means that child will have a better quality of life by having less competition for resources from other human beings and inheriting more financially from their parents than say 2,3 or 4 children could.
[FONT=&quot]If you think that a policy that has lead to the murder of countless baby girls is a good one..................[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]I think the substitution of "aborting" for "murder" might be more accurate, though over populated people living in poverty do tend to be treated very badly. I'm not sure we have got much choice. If the Asians insist on having boys that should be self limiting. I have not met a pregnant man yet - perhaps it will make being female more fun out there. There are already some feisty young Chinese women capitalising on their scarcity value. [/FONT][FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
The world's population has gone up 1,300,000 in the last week, and they cannot go home to Poland, that might be good news for the oil price speculators.
[FONT=&quot]The main reason China is going to prosper is because their government isn't run by short term interests.............[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]It was interesting to see that the big government meeting in the capital earlier this year was to hammer out the medium term plan for years 5 to 10 in the future.
Does our Government know where it will be next Xmas? However I some commentators expect China to misjudge the situation. It will be interesting to see how they adapt to the inevitable changes.[/FONT]


They varied day to day, in 6-hour slots. So you'd have no power for one 6-hour slot per day. On the days when it was 6-midnight we'd eat toast cooked on the open fire on a toasting fork.
It was fun in retrospect, but we tend to forget the pain. Dodging unlit traffic islands, missing the next episode on the box, heating the place with paraffin because the boiler had locked out. Going to work all "dirty" and trying to "top and tail" in the loo, then trying to work by the light from a car battery........... Very few houses still have open fires, you have been warned.

After all this Im for Nuclear power plants in all honesty... they are the next step to produce power for our cars and our homes, The next step then will be finding the next fuel source for our people.
When I go, I will be leaving you a legacy. It will be a tennis ball sized lump of high level radioactive waste. Please promise me you will keep it under lock and key for 200,000 years. You will need to spy on your fellow citizens and have police checks similar to catching a plane; you must NEVER EVER let the stuff get into the hands of a religious nutter as it would make a very handy dirty bomb. Thinks I wonder what has happened to all those wareheads being dismantled in USA and the former USSR?
Interesting lively thread.
John.



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LillyJ

I think the substitution of "aborting" for "murder" might be more accurate,

And I would think you were wrong. The murder of full term new born infants is not abortion.

Totally off topic but I am afraid there is no way you can dress up murdering new born baby girls as abortion.

Paul_N_4

pickledpink wrote: »

Ten years from now property will be worth double or even treble, Fact.

At school, did you find you were the one always sitting in the corner with a pointy hat on?

IveSeenTheLight

Lotus-eater wrote: »

I used words, and I quote "I think", "they might" and "I bet".

Based on no facts

So based on no facts you form an opinion????????:T :T :T

Surely there is some evidence that has persuaded your views on this or have you been persuaded by a lot of non factual opinions?

IveSeenTheLight

John_Pierpoint wrote: »

I think there will be more of a "drop off a cliff" effect this time round. Obviously not as steep as when fear grips the stock exchange, because housing is difficult to sell and most of us just want a roof over our heads. However that said we have MUCH better information MUCH faster this time round than back in 1988.

Granted we have much better information which could facilitate a sharper drop, but this also works in reverse.
With much more information available, the general public will know when house price levels reach their long term Real House Price average.
This could mean that the overshoot or the amount that the prices drop by is far less than previous history shows

John_Pierpoint wrote: »

We are also MORE overvalued.

Are we?, well if you look at the amount of pounds then the average house price (approx 178K) is over valued by about 32K (146K using the Real House Price Average, the red line) wheras at the height of the price bubble in 1990 showed that approxiamately the average house prices were 116K while the Real House price average was circa 80K, a difference of 36K

Looking at this as percentages, we are currently 22% overvalued (on average (178k/146k)) while in 1990 we were 45% overvalued (116k / 80k)

Therefore statistically, we are NOT MORE overvalued than previously.
You are the weakest link, goodbye! (Sorry, couldnt help that one )

I've said before, when you look at the Real House Price Average and the current house price average, property is 22% overvalued (on average) this means there needs to be a 22% house price drop now (a figure that the banks are working to) or with inflation at 2.4% this would mean a 15% drop over 3 years.

One last point while discussing averages. If the UK is on average 22% overvalued then there will be properties that are far more over valued than this average. There will also be properties that are far less over valued or even still undervalued. It will depend on each specific area / type of property.

John_Pierpoint wrote: »

Nothing is certain, when inflation is gathering pace.

This would mean that the 15% drop over 3 years with inflation at 2.4% would need a lower drop over the same period, or less years in the term in order for the average house price to match the long term real house price average

IveSeenTheLight

pickles110564 wrote: »

At the moment some stupid LL's do pay for their tenants to live in them, that is due to the fact that the rent does not cover their mortgage so they have to top it up.

Agreed, stupid landlords subsidise the tenants (if this is the case). I've not seen any facts or figures for this, just opinions.

Is it possible that these opinions are based on what it would cost to buy the property today and not what the property was bought for?

I thought that BTL's needed to show that the expected rental income was 125% of the mortgage payments (well it was in my experience), so how did could they get a BTL mortgage

Without the facts or figures, I will take these landlords as being the minority, the majority of LL's will have figures that add up

m00m00

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Agreed, stupid landlords subsidise the tenants (if this is the case). I've not seen any facts or figures for this, just opinions.

Is it possible that these opinions are based on what it would cost to buy the property today and not what the property was bought for?

I thought that BTL's needed to show that the expected rental income was 125% of the mortgage payments (well it was in my experience), so how did could they get a BTL mortgage

Without the facts or figures, I will take these landlords as being the minority, the majority of LL's will have figures that add up

you are staggeringly blinkered if you believe this.

how did people get BTL without an expected income of 125% in short, they LIED.

there is a massive increase in the amount of BTL mortgages over the past 2 years at highly inflated prices, there's been no end of posts on this forum and stories in the media from landlords who are in negative geared investments.

pickles110564

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Agreed, stupid landlords subsidise the tenants (if this is the case). I've not seen any facts or figures for this, just opinions.

Is it possible that these opinions are based on what it would cost to buy the property today and not what the property was bought for?

I thought that BTL's needed to show that the expected rental income was 125% of the mortgage payments (well it was in my experience), so how did could they get a BTL mortgage

Without the facts or figures, I will take these landlords as being the minority, the majority of LL's will have figures that add up

I know of LL's that have reborrowed on their BTL's taking them up to the max (then) value, several are now getting quite worried on where prices will be ending up.

Oliveru

pickles110564 wrote: »

I know of LL's that have reborrowed on their BTL's taking them up to the max (then) value, several are now getting quite worried on where prices will be ending up.

Taking them up to the max value, does that mean you can increase the size of your mortgage based on an increase in your property valuation? If so that is scary.

I imagine a person doing that would keep doing it until they noticed prices were going down, essentially giving them the equivalent of buying at exactly the top of the market