Sell Your House Now Or Face 80% Falls, what is YOUR prediction?

Oliveru

dopester wrote: »

Whilst I agree with most of your points Oliveru, you might want to consider beginning every new paragraph with alternatives to "I" or variants of it.

Give me a break I'm only 21

ManAtHome

My take is that Oliver hasn't fallen for the "make your big-bucks house/business in the sun, amazing how everything works out in part 4" baloney. Maybe the "tenties" will be the decade of the young fogey..?

MrMalkin

Oliveru wrote: »

I've never studied finance formally even though I've done an A-level in Business (got a B lol).

In that case I'm going to go ahead and just ignore everything you've said. You have no formal training, and no direct experience of working in the field. Reading a few internet forums does not give you a thorough understanding of the mechanics of this issue. Anyone can post after the fact and claim they knew Northern Rock or the credit crunch were going to happen.

That's the problem with the internet - it's easy to be drawn into the trap of believing you understand all the ins and outs of something based on a little bit of research. It's easy to be drawn to a few buzzwords, give yourself something of an understanding of them, and then spout whatever new views you've got to other people who don't know any better in an attempt to impress them. It also gives you the false sense that you know as much as if not more than the professionals, when trust me, you don't.

The internet really does make you stupid sometimes.

BACKFRMTHEEDGE

Oliveru wrote: »

** Edited to give you a more exciting reading experience **

LOL:rotfl::rotfl: It was worth reading just for the punch line:rotfl:

Oliveru

MrMalkin wrote: »

In that case I'm going to go ahead and just ignore everything you've said. Anyone can post after the fact and claim they knew Northern Rock or the credit crunch were going to happen.

Actually I believed the credit contraction would happen well before it did because a bunch of us on HPC were all discussing how the banks have a huge amount of risky debt so inevitably this would lead them to lend less/ be unable to lend less and to less risky people.

As for your point about ignoring everything I've said just because I don't have formal training well thats just the height of ignorance. Many London bankers didn't predict the credit crunch and are surprised to know they might be losing their job

If it was all about how much experience/ formal qualifications people had discussion wouldn't even matter, we would all be ranked on that basis and anyone that falls out of line would ofcourse be shot :rolleyes:

MrMalkin

Oliveru wrote: »

As for your point about ignoring everything I've said just because I don't have formal training well thats just the height of ignorance. Many London bankers didn't predict the credit crunch and are surprised to know they might be losing their job

I'll tell you what, let us know what your methodology was that you used to come up with this 80% drop prediction, and any reputable evidence you used to back up your conclusions.

neas

Im sorry but as a young pup myself houses hardly went into my thoughts when i was 21..... i was concentrating on finishing my degree and obtaining a job.

Just seems you've read some recent information (as i did 6-8 months ago) and now believe yourself to be an expert :P. I'f you'd have predicted 30% falls people would've accepted it.. based on the usual arguments... but 80% means total financial meltdown and england turning into a third-world country.

terryw

neas wrote: »

<snip> but 80% means total financial meltdown and england turning into a third-world country.

Ah, so that's an improvement then.

terryw

IveSeenTheLight

Graeme7777 wrote: »

Probably a naive question but how useful is the "average house price" as a benchmark as I would think it's quite heavily skewed by the amazing rise in prices over the last decade.

Is there an argument for saying that if the houses prices are going to drop towards some long-term average, that average will be somewhat lower than recorded by a simple averaging of returns?

Or it that nonsense?

The red line in the graph is the Real House Price average, governed by a 2.4% inflation as opposed to the recent HPI.

Hencr it shows the current average house price would need to drop 22% now or 15% over the next three years to be back in line with the long term Real House Price Average

Hope this helps with your query

IveSeenTheLight

MrDT wrote: »

I like the [EMAIL="b&#64;stardised"]b@stardised[/EMAIL] graph, although not taken as it will definately be the graph.
It would be good if you could re-post showing the extended red line with a 2.4% inflation increase.
This would show what the average Real House Price should be.