Sell Your House Now Or Face 80% Falls, what is YOUR prediction?

Lotus-eater

I think the dip in the forecast graph is too narrow, it needs to be enlongated. They might come down that quick, but I bet they don't go up again that quickly.

PasturesNew

Oliveru wrote: »

** Edited to give you a more exciting reading experience **

Best thing I've read for ages.
I might steal/use that line at some future point (if I remember)

IveSeenTheLight

Lotus-eater wrote: »

I think the dip in the forecast graph is too narrow, it needs to be enlongated. They might come down that quick, but I bet they don't go up again that quickly.

This is based on what facts?
The hyperbola's from the last 30 years seems to show it histroically would be similar to MrDT's graph.

Remember, looking at the graph, we are only approx on average 22% overpriced at the moment.
This means a 22% drop needed now or 15% drop over the next three years due to inflation rises. In fact with inflation being higher than the 2.4% used in the graph, you could say that the 15% drop in the next three years will be lower to fall in line with the Real House Price Average.

Now historically they overshoot, probably due to sentiment and you can say that sentiment is more publicised nowadays, however will be the point when house prices on average reach the Real House Price Average, meaning the overshoot could be dramatically reduced.

PasturesNew

Oliveru wrote: »

Give me a break I'm only 21

I've got pants older than you.

maytaurus

pickledpink

Maybe property will drop by 110%!:rotfl: And landlords will have to pay tenants to live in 'em!!!:whistle: :whistle:

Actually, last month Rightmove reported an actual RISE in property!!

But we all know that property is at a plateau at the moment, and some properties have dropped - the overpriced horrible ones in crappy areas mainly - but as a whole there has been just slight drops by about 10%.

Even if property were to fall by 30% (and it's sure taking a long time to happen given all the doomongers on here said they would have fallen that far by this Spring!:rotfl: ) most people's properties (mine included) would only fall back to what they were worth 2 or 3 years ago - which was an AWFUL LOT! So I'd still be happy.

Sure, some property may be hard to sell in the next couple of years, but after every bust there's always a boom. Ten years from now property will be worth double or even treble, Fact.

John_Pierpoint

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

This is based on what facts?
The hyperbola's from the last 30 years seems to show it histroically would be similar to MrDT's graph.

Remember, looking at the graph, we are only approx on average 22% overpriced at the moment.
This means a 22% drop needed now or 15% drop over the next three years due to inflation rises. In fact with inflation being higher than the 2.4% used in the graph, you could say that the 15% drop in the next three years will be lower to fall in line with the Real House Price Average.

Now historically they overshoot, probably due to sentiment and you can say that sentiment is more publicised nowadays, however will be the point when house prices on average reach the Real House Price Average, meaning the overshoot could be dramatically reduced.

I think there will be more of a "drop off a cliff" effect this time round. Obviously not as steep as when fear grips the stock exchange, because housing is difficult to sell and most of us just want a roof over our heads. However that said we have MUCH better information MUCH faster this time round than back in 1988.
We are also MORE overvalued.
Nothing is certain, when inflation is gathering pace.
I see in the news that caravans and farm machinery are good investments at the moment. (I think the former is for cheap low carbon holidays; but useful as a rent free shelter).
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LillyJ wrote: »

There was actually a thread a while back where people said that houses would drop to £1 in some places. In which case I'll have 100. BTL here I come!

Are you so young that you cannot remember "The boy's from the Blackstuff". There were streets "up north" with many boarded up houses. The legal costs etc. were more than they were worth.
They had to be boarded up with steel shutters in an attempt to keep out the squatters and drug dealers. Many were eventually demolished, with any decent bricks being trucked to places such as London Docklands.
[I've seen a documentary trying to demonstrate that Thamesmead flats could be on the slippery slope.]

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So we should all go and live abroad, and get our "wealth" up?. Stuff family and friends.

I know of several people who HAD to do just that in the 1970's following the first oil shock.
They went to the "dry" middle east to try and get some of our money back, hide from their creditors and the "debt free" party was the social highlight.
I agree this will not happen to the same extent because (1) Warmongering Anglo Saxons are no longer so welcome in the oil producing countries. (2) Our "skill set" has been devalued. Knowledge workers and other members of the Technostructure are now
now available from Asia at bargain prices.

Lotus-eater

pickledpink wrote: »

Ten years from now property will be worth double or even treble, Fact.

:rotfl:

Absolutely.......... Fact

Lotus-eater

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

This is based on what facts?

I used words, and I quote "I think", "they might" and "I bet".

Based on no facts

pickles110564

pickledpink wrote: »

Maybe property will drop by 110%!:rotfl: And landlords will have to pay tenants to live in 'em!!!:whistle: :whistle:

At the moment some stupid LL's do pay for their tenants to live in them, that is due to the fact that the rent does not cover their mortgage so they have to top it up.