Sell Your House Now Or Face 80% Falls, what is YOUR prediction?

Oliveru

MrDT wrote: »

edit: I could have been a bit cheekier and removed the flat 'false start' from 2005 on the downward slope too (take a look at the 90's peak ) but I figured I'd best leave it in to avoid the screams of 'CHEAT!'

In many markets you get what is called a bull trap where prices start to rise again prematurely, people have predicted as such in the housing market but I don't see it because lending levels have halved since the credit crunch so it's only down from here

If you remove the 'false start' (bull trap) and make the decline a little sharper it becomes a very accurate representation to me.

MrMalkin

Oliveru wrote: »

In many markets you get what is called a bull trap where prices start to rise again prematurely, people have predicted as such in the housing market but I don't see it because lending levels have halved since the credit crunch so it's only down from here

If you remove the 'false start' (bull trap) and make the decline a little sharper it becomes a very accurate representation to me.

I'm wondering what qualifications or training you have which allows you to predict with such confidence things which seasoned professionals have had a lot of trouble doing.

If you're 21, does that mean that you're about to graduate from University? With a degree in economics or finance, per chance?

clobber_2

I knew everything when I was 21 too...

m00m00

I briefly taught first and second year undergraduates

they all knew everything too

in fact there's a simple formula

the amount they actually do know, is in direct inverse proportion to the amount they think they know.

motch

Oliveru wrote: »

In many markets you get what is called a bull trap where prices start to rise again prematurely, people have predicted as such in the housing market but I don't see it because lending levels have halved since the credit crunch so it's only down from here

If you remove the 'false start' (bull trap) and make the decline a little sharper it becomes a very accurate representation to me.

I've been thinking lately that the bull trap may well of been the 2005 period

ManAtHome

Well, as the "seasoned professionals" seem to change their predictions whenever the "data goes out of range" (lol), I reckon even "untrained" predictions have the same 50/50 chance of being correct...

fc123

Someone puit a graph of this some weeks back.
I copied it but can't find it. The peak, then the little dip, the rise of 'back to normal', then the big slope down. The HPC of 2005 could be seen as the little peak up again.
When I was 21, I was an expert on pretty much everything especially how one could live and obtain 'The perfect Life'.
45 now.

Oliveru

motch wrote: »

I've been thinking lately that the bull trap may well of been the 2005 period

I agree with this statement, looking at the graph it's actually pretty obvious but I was too busy focusing on the post peak part at the time. This confirms what I thought then, it most definitely is severely down from here!

I knew everything when I was 21 too...

I don't claim to know everything. Having spent a lot of my free time in the last year reading and posting about the housing market/ British economy I've absorbed a lot of intelligent observations from others as well as studying the facts and figures/ learning about how macro-economics works and then coming to my own conclusions.

There are probably other people out there as bearish as me on the UK property market but they just aren't confident enough to say what they really mean because group pyschology is an incredibly powerful force- it practically drives the UK property market and largely influences things we take for granted like foreign exchange rates (ie currency values).

I've never studied finance formally even though I've done an A-level in Business (got a B lol). People just need to realise that macro-economics is not rocket science it just requires people to see through the hyp and base their own predictions on facts, figures, trends and common sense. The last one being the most important.

Many seasoned professionals predicted the crash but public sentiment was so bullish the media ignored such predictions until there was obvious signs like Northern Rock for example.

** Edited to give you a more exciting reading experience **

fc123

Oliveru wrote: »

I think there are other people out there as bearish as me on the UK property

I believe many seasoned professionals predicted the crash but public sentiment was so bullish the media ignored such predictions until there was obvious signs like Northern Rock for example.

It was the telly that did it....all those property shows.
Like making big life decisions based on East Enders.

Also the change your life and run your own business shows....seen loads of casualities in retail in our area as they could MEW the £60k to start up, no questions....had no idea what they were doing
Enjoy being 21 BTW . Son is 21 next week and he knows everything too!
Not that I am accusing you of that...enjoy the idealism and learning about......couple of decades on, the learning comes from experiencing stuff....nowhere near as much fun.:rolleyes:

dopester

Oliveru wrote: »

I agree with this statement, looking at the graph it's actually pretty obvious but I was too busy focusing on the post peak part at the time. This confirms what I thought then, it most definitely is severely down from here!

I don't claim to know everything, I just spent a lot of my free time in the last year reading and posting about the housing market/ British economy and in that time I've absorbed a lot of intelligent observations from others as well as studying the facts and figures/ learning about how macro-economics works and then coming to my own conclusions.

I think there are other people out there as bearish as me on the UK property market but they just aren't confident enough to say what they really mean because group pyschology is an incredibly powerful force- it practically drives the UK property market and largely influences things we take for granted like foreign exchange rates (ie currency values).

I've never studied finance formally even though I've done an A-level in Business (got a B lol). People just need to realise that macro-economics is not rocket science it just requires people to see through the hyp and base their own predictions on facts, figures, trends and common sense. The last one being the most important.

I believe many seasoned professionals predicted the crash but public sentiment was so bullish the media ignored such predictions until there was obvious signs like Northern Rock for example.

Whilst I agree with most of your points Oliveru, you might want to consider beginning every new paragraph with alternatives to "I" or variants of it.