Losing momentum

pickles110564

rozeepozee wrote: »

Ahh, MM and I go way back. I was talking about maybe 2005 (when people predicting a HPC were deemed a little crazy).

Just proves how wrong you were, in 2008 and still no crash just a small minor correction.
Any other brilliant tips from you?

Kez100

pickles this is a crash because people are not buying and many don't intend to. The Market for purchasing has all but dried up and , once agreed sales from the early part of this year complete or fall through it will only get worse. Negative sentiment, buyer inaction and failing banks will cause a crash unless, of course, you see a 30% fall just as a correction, which I guess could make sense as an argument.

What level of drop do you consider a crash, pickles?

IveSeenTheLight

Kez100 wrote: »

pickles this is a crash because people are not buying and many don't intend to. The Market for purchasing has all but dried up and , once agreed sales from the early part of this year complete or fall through it will only get worse. Negative sentiment, buyer inaction and failing banks will cause a crash unless, of course, you see a 30% fall just as a correction, which I guess could make sense as an argument.

What level of drop do you consider a crash, pickles?

Not wanting to step on pickles toes but I see you referring to two different things.
First part about sales crashing, I would agree this is true given the facts available.
Second part about house prices crashing, this has not happened yet, but may do going forward.
I guess you could consider that the two things go hand in hand and of course to an extent this will be true as there will always be people with a need to sell. Sales could crash, a small price drop happens (within the bounds of a correction) and then sales and prices pick up again.

In regards to what we might think a drop may constitute a crash, well statistically it's been said we are about 22% overvalued. A drop to this (inflation adjusted) for me would be a correction (back to actual long term valuation), above 30% I guess would be the start of the drop required for a crash, in between would just be an overshoot of the correction

Of course the above is working on a UK average and I think there will be areas and properties that are higher and lower than the average

phil_b_2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Not wanting to step on pickles toes but I see you referring to two different things.
First part about sales crashing, I would agree this is true given the facts available.
Second part about house prices crashing, this has not happened yet, but may do going forward.
I guess you could consider that the two things go hand in hand and of course to an extent this will be true as there will always be people with a need to sell. Sales could crash, a small price drop happens (within the bounds of a correction) and then sales and prices pick up again.

In regards to what we might think a drop may constitute a crash, well statistically it's been said we are about 22% overvalued. A drop to this (inflation adjusted) for me would be a correction (back to actual long term valuation), above 30% I guess would be the start of the drop required for a crash, in between would just be an overshoot of the correction

Of course the above is working on a UK average and I think there will be areas and properties that are higher and lower than the average

Yours is the first post I've ever thanked (you should feel honored!). I think it was spot on. There has been a crash in people buying houses and market sentiment, but this does not yet equal a house price crash at all and many are getting confused between the two. Some drops here and there, big whoop. Whether it will translate into a 'crash' remains to be seen. I hope prices do go down much more as I want to buy in the not so distant future.

Then, your point about what level of drop makes it a crash rather than a correction is a good one. We indeed need to look first at what the average value SHOULD be, and start to consider a crash when prices start falling below that. I think we are a long way off that yet!

I think it is easy to get carried away and exaggerate the situation when we have become used to prices and sales being so strong for so long.

pickles110564

Kez100 wrote: »

pickles this is a crash because people are not buying and many don't intend to. The Market for purchasing has all but dried up and , once agreed sales from the early part of this year complete or fall through it will only get worse. Negative sentiment, buyer inaction and failing banks will cause a crash unless, of course, you see a 30% fall just as a correction, which I guess could make sense as an argument.

What level of drop do you consider a crash, pickles?

Good news Kez, agent friend has a complete checked out chain, FTB at bottom, highest price at top is £350K.
Broders is right things have started turning, great news for everyone.

dannyboycey

phil_b wrote: »

I think it is easy to get carried away and exaggerate the situation when we have become used to prices and sales being so strong for so long.

Apparently not as easy as getting carried away with rising prices for the last 17 years. I'm afraid you're in for a reality check.

Generali

pickles110564 wrote: »

Good news Kez, agent friend has a complete checked out chain, FTB at bottom, highest price at top is £350K.
Broders is right things have started turning, great news for everyone.

One chain does not a spring bounce make!

pickles110564

Generali wrote: »

One chain does not a spring bounce make!

True but it is always nice to hear good news instead of all the rubbish from the doom mongers.

Datasafe_2

pickles110564 wrote: »

Good news Kez, agent friend has a complete checked out chain, FTB at bottom, highest price at top is £350K.
Broders is right things have started turning, great news for everyone.

Houses will continue to sell through any housing crash, that one complete chain means nothing either way.

m00m00

and that anecdote is meaningless without comparative pricing