Losing momentum

boinging_2

ianmr65 wrote: »

i find that on message boards ignoring trolls/bullys is far more effective than responding... unlike in real life... especially as without editing rights, threads that are blown out of the water, are much less liable to be read if they end in a flame war...

so getting back to the point... we have yet to see any convincing evidence for a price fall of 5% but lots for a price fall of around 15% y on y, and 25-30% over two years, or any evidence that the hpc is indeed losing momentum

Quite - "nothing's going to stop us now"...

mr.broderick

ianmr65 wrote: »

i find that on message boards ignoring trolls/bullys is far more effective than responding... unlike in real life... especially as without editing rights, threads that are blown out of the water, are much less liable to be read if they end in a flame war...

so getting back to the point... we have yet to see any convincing evidence for a price fall of 5% but lots for a price fall of around 15% y on y, and 25-30% over two years, or any evidence that the hpc is indeed losing momentum

:j Evidence...It's all hearsay you muppet, they will rise 25% next year or maybe i'll be wrong

ianmr65

Ma77hew wrote: »

Showing data by cutting it off at the highest point doesn't really show the best picture of a trend IMO.

Fair point but if you take a look at the other graph, the one from the debt beurea it shows the likely trend pattern much more clearly, as it goes back 50 years.

ianmr65

brit1234 wrote: »

Historically house price downturns last for years. There is no reason for the market to pick up, falls will continue this summer guaranteed.

2-3 years is my guess, barring a slump, 2 -5 after that

ianmr65

BTman wrote: »

I think we will see an upturn in the summer too.

It will of course be a bull trap.

yeah just like the hpc is a bear trap... this implies that controllable factors are at work. they arn't its a bubble, and it's burst.

ianmr65

chappers wrote: »

I've said it before and i'll say it again.
I don't believe this price correction will be as severe as the last, i think we are currently seeing the fastest rate of drop and will then see aperiod of inactivity followed by a steady recovery.
I believe all things being equal employment wise we will se a 5-6 year cycle to return prices to last summers highs.

Remember you heard it here first.

last hpc inflation was running at 10-11% which cushioned the blow somewhat... this time its a lot lower.
Last time the increases were less, and borrowing was harder. This time the reverse is true. Last time we were not in the middle of an almighty global banking crisis, this time we are. Last time we had no sub - prime, to speak of, this time we do:
on what basis do you think then, other than wishful thinking that this hpc, will be less severe?

ianmr65

teabelly wrote: »

A few more reports of areas with rising prices in March/April/May and it will all be over. Once the media have forgotten they are supposed to be hyping up a crash it will nothing to report and time to moan about rising fuel and food prices. Fewer new builds available will lead to shortages in popular areas so prices will rise as buyers chase the remaining decent properties. Crap holes and new build flats in crap holes will be decimated.

Continued HPI will help the banks out of their current mess as they last thing they want is a load of repossessions. A small steady rise of a few percent a year over the next 5 years or so is what is best. Small rises will let wages catch up and stop so many ending up in negative equity. The small rises will also reduce speculation. That way those with 95% mortgages will be around the 90% mark at the end of 2 year fixes rather than 100% or more if prices fall.

Till hbos, or some other bank teetering on the brink of capital decimation goes tits up. The liquidity packagae shored up the liquidity problems not balance sheet holes... uk banking sector still has £100m of sub prime garbage to write down.

Also this implies were are talking ourselves into a hpc, and ignores the bubble, sub prime, historical trends and the credit crunch.

mr.broderick

ianmr65 wrote: »

yeah just like the hpc is a bear trap... this implies that controllable factors are at work. they arn't its a bubble, and it's burst.

Okeydokey please no one else post a graph which shows the bull and bear trap...this is a bubble and its burst...Nice one Ian..

mr.broderick

There were talks of a bull trap for gold in 2005, some bloody trap that turned out to be.....

nollag2006

House prices round my area (Harpenden) are still rising sharply.

I think the recent slowdown is likely to be shortlived, thankfully.