Isn't anybody tired of hearing the same old

teabelly

snoopy78 wrote: »

Two things the first is the comment regarding FTB, I really think you are over estimating the amount of investers out there, a recent study said that BTL has only added on 3% to house prices. So what has added the rest, maybe it is something to do with the vasts amount of debt?

The second thing is how long the credit crunch effects are felt, whilst we may get over the crunch in the next few years Banks will never again be allowed to do what the NR did, they will never again fund that much debt. Several reports are being put together now, some of which will take 5+ years into the what happened and could it happen again, banks will find they have new strick laws and regulations placed on them that will restrict debts.

Never again will you see mortgages for 125%, I am not totally sure that 100% will ever be available and as for 4.5+ your salary I think that is a thing of the past too.

If BTL has only added 3% then it is high time the priced out FTBs stopped their whinging then and accepted the fact they can't afford!

I always thought 125% mortgages were idiotic unless you were doing a full refurbishment or adding real value to a property. I wouldn't go higher than 90% LTV on principle. I bought as an FTB in 2000 with around 3x salary. The highest I was offered was 4x but I thought that was far too risky as it didn't leave much money left over for all the associated costs of home ownership. The first few years were a struggle but as I had the sense to get a decent job and not put up with bad pay and no pay rises so it got easier over time. If your employer doesn't pay a decent wage or treat you properly, work elsewhere.

When I bought I thought prices were near the peak then and they'd drop. Everyone said they'd drop and it was unsustainable, blah blah. Well 8 years on we are still hearing the same things

lypsey

Teabelly , I have never read so much tosh , you say "The biggest shouter of HPC is some idiot from capital economics that has been shouting the sky is falling since 2002 or earlier. It hasn't fallen."

UBS forecast -3% this year
Evan Davis BBC - 5%
Deloitte -8%
Nationwide -5%
Invesco -10%
Institute for Economic affairs -10%
London School of Economics -20%
Morgan Stanley -20%
When you have people like MS saying minus 20% you need to situp and listen , they don't have a vested interest like Halifax , Rightmove etc etc

Please remember that BTL make up 11% of the market , and remember over half those people bought in the last 3 years. (over 500,000 mortgages)

Do you really believe that if for one second they think they will lose 10% this year and 10% the next they will say "oh but i'm in for the long term"

And do you really think that if I say to a FTB'er that your 150k house will be 15k cheaper next year and another 14k cheaper the following year they will say " oh its a great idea to buy today"

Wake up, houses have fallen 6 consecutive months , there is NO bottom rung of the ladder

Type in http://www.property-tools.co.uk/

They have a great piece of kit you can down load which shows the devaluation of houses from Rightmove
I live in a very affluent town in North Kent , i have had this program running 5 weeks only and 21% of all the houses have fallen in value
This crash is going to be very nasty and I still forecast a 50% crash , and if house can rise 300% in 10 years they can easily fall half that figure

Paul_N_4

teabelly wrote: »

It is hard for FTBs but it always has been and always will be. It was hard for me...

teabelly wrote: »

I bought as an FTB in 2000 with around 3x salary.

Can I just get this right. You're preaching the "it was hard for me when I was a FTB, get used to it" line and you bought in 2000 with 3x your salary, when interest rates were similar to what they are today?

If you found that hard in 2000 how do you think you'd manage now? Work out the multiple of your income to the value of that house today and ask if you could still afford it on 3x your salary.

tr3mor

Paul_N wrote: »

Can I just get this right. You're preaching the "it was hard for me when I was a FTB, get used to it" line and you bought in 2000 with 3x your salary, when interest rates were similar to what they are today?

If you found that hard in 2000 how do you think you'd manage now? Work out the multiple of your income to the value of that house today and ask if you could still afford it on 3x your salary.

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

EdInvestor

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

So when you calling the bottom of the market EdInvestor?

Actually I expect it to drift sideways for quite some time, certainly until the credit crunch sorts itself out. Most people will just wait, since there's not much point in trying to sell if buyers won't make reasonable offers and can't get mortgages, it's a total waste of time.

There may be some forced sellers, but that is likely to have only a local effect ( eg new build inner city flats). If people desperately need to move, they can always just rent out their PPR and use the income to rent another place for themselves in the new area.Things are much more flexible these days than they were in the early 90s.

chappers

sm9ai wrote: »

To be honest I got bored of the "Buy now before its too late" type questions

Thankfully it seems to have dried up completely.

Which tells me more than any other stats ever could!

That could be the new mantra but ammended to"buy now before you can't get a motgage"

trudiha

EdInvestor wrote: »

Actually I expect it to drift sideways for quite some time, certainly until the credit crunch sorts itself out.

Super, would you be willing to underwrite any downturn in the value of my property in exchange for me agreeing to give you any gains over, say, the next 5 years?

RHemmings

Paul_N wrote: »

Can I just get this right. You're preaching the "it was hard for me when I was a FTB, get used to it" line and you bought in 2000 with 3x your salary, when interest rates were similar to what they are today?

If you found that hard in 2000 how do you think you'd manage now? Work out the multiple of your income to the value of that house today and ask if you could still afford it on 3x your salary.

Thank you Paul N. We often hear this glib claim that things were always hard for FTBs. Then we find out that the people making the claim bought at a time when it was infinitely easier to buy.

teabelly

Wow, so prices rise 300% in 10 years then drop back a bit? 50% crash, my bum. The average house will not be worth 110k in a few years time. The average house will be worth about at least 200k which is roughly where they are now! Losing a whole 10% when they have risen 300% in 10 years is hardly crash territory is it though? Especially when average yearly increases are around 10% pa anyway over quite a number of years. Sold prices have stagnated, these are the figures that matter. Until the land registry is showing consistent sold price falls for several months there is no crash happening!

BTL landlords actually have a lower default rate than normal residential mortgage holders. The ones in trouble are the idiots that bought new build flats for silly money where the market rent was a fantasy. New build flats are selling for about 26% below original purchase price. Don't know where you get the idea you can have 50% falls when the most over priced property is only managing to sell for 26% less over the last 5 years. If these bits of rubbish can only manage to fall 26% from their original and vastly over inflated price then it is very unlikely other property will fall massively!

Fallen in value in Kent? Sold prices or EA asking prices? Sold in auction, repossessed or a normal sale? Needed work? Unless you are comparing like with like then it is meaningless statistics because you can find one property that is less than some others that could be completely different!

The FT also said recently that prices would rise by 40% over the next 5 years due to demands from immigration, divorce and an ageing population.

The only experts to listen to are those that have correctly forecast HPI consistently over a number of years. Any that haven't can be safely ignored as they have been wrong. I can say each day 'it's going to rain' and be right some of the time but unless I am right most of the time then I'm hardly a weather expert which is why you ignore property market experts that have also been wrong, catastrophically wrong, year on year.

RHemmings

teabelly wrote: »

Wow, so prices rise 300% in 10 years then drop back a bit? 50% crash, my bum. The average house will not be worth 110k in a few years time. The average house will be worth about at least 200k which is roughly where they are now! Losing a whole 10% when they have risen 300% in 10 years is hardly crash territory is it though? Especially when average yearly increases are around 10% pa anyway over quite a number of years. Sold prices have stagnated, these are the figures that matter. Until the land registry is showing consistent sold price falls for several months there is no crash happening!

How do you know what will happen or won't happen in the future in so much detail?