Isn't anybody tired of hearing the same old

EdInvestor

The problem is that anyone buying now is likely to find themselves going substantially into negative equity in the coming couple of years. That means no moving house, difficulty getting credit,big losses if you are forced to sell for some reason.

How many years have you been saying this !!!!!!? One or two? Three perhaps?

Or are you one of the old- timers who've been wrong for 5 years or more?

dannyboycey

EdInvestor wrote: »

How many years have you been saying this !!!!!!? One or two? Three perhaps?

Or are you one of the old- timers who've been wrong for 5 years or more?

Doesn't matter anymore. He's right now. That's what's important.

Nobody could've imagined the bubble would last this long. It's over now though. :beer:

RHemmings

borntobefree wrote: »

There is nothing to be scared of in a falling market.. I sold my first flat for less than I paid for it. My generation all had negative equity in the early 1990s. We don't now though do we? If we'd been scared off by a falling market we'd still be renting.

Really? So if you had been scared off by a falling market, you would never have bought a few years later when property stabilised and started going up again?

RHemmings

teabelly wrote: »

It is hard for FTBs but it always has been and always will be. It was hard for me, it was hard for my parents, my friends and everyone else I know that bought. You just learn to deal with it and keep to a tight budget until your wages rise and you are over the hardest first few years. It involves sacrifice and todays young folks just want everything now without having to wait or work for it. People my age aren't always that patient in saving up and doing without either

Which year did you buy your first property?

WTF?_2

EdInvestor wrote: »

How many years have you been saying this !!!!!!? One or two? Three perhaps?

Or are you one of the old- timers who've been wrong for 5 years or more?

I've been of the opinion that prices are out of whack and it will all ultimately end in tears for roughly the last year - I looked into buying a year and a bit ago and concluded that it didn't make sense with prices as they were and that something would have to give sooner or later.

Now, it's giving.


Here's my next prediction. After prices fall and bottom out there will be another boom again. I don't know when the boom will happen and the amounts of rises and such - but I do know that it's going to be well worth buying when prices are low. Once we're in the trough it should be possible to look at the data, as we are doing now, and conclude when things are about to go on the up. Would you like to take issue with that prediction too for not being precise enough?

Turnbull2000

EdInvestor wrote: »

How many years have you been saying this !!!!!!? One or two? Three perhaps?

Or are you one of the old- timers who've been wrong for 5 years or more?

So when you calling the bottom of the market EdInvestor?

tr3mor

gabyjane wrote: »

Most people with common sense will get an IFA and sit down and work out what they can/can't afford.

Most people with common sense won't want to pay a 25 year mortgage for an overpriced hole.

We could afford a house around ~£200k (25% down, 3 times salary). If house prices fall 50% then we'll be able to afford a house currently valued at £400k.

Now, which do I choose?

:money:

snoopy78

teabelly wrote: »

There is only less money for lending while the credit crunch is still going on . Once the liquidity returns then lending levels will return and house prices will carry on rising as other reasons will keep demand higher than supply. There are plenty of people that still can afford to buy. The market no longer depends on FTBs, there are plenty of investors willing and able to jump in their shoes.

Two things the first is the comment regarding FTB, I really think you are over estimating the amount of investers out there, a recent study said that BTL has only added on 3% to house prices. So what has added the rest, maybe it is something to do with the vasts amount of debt?

The second thing is how long the credit crunch effects are felt, whilst we may get over the crunch in the next few years Banks will never again be allowed to do what the NR did, they will never again fund that much debt. Several reports are being put together now, some of which will take 5+ years into the what happened and could it happen again, banks will find they have new strick laws and regulations placed on them that will restrict debts.

Never again will you see mortgages for 125%, I am not totally sure that 100% will ever be available and as for 4.5+ your salary I think that is a thing of the past too.

PasturesNew

teabelly wrote: »

It doesn't matter whether the person ... can afford the average home. What matters whether there are enough other people ie better paid or investors that can. If someone is buying it doesn't matter who.

It does. If people are continually moving about because their tenancy comes to an end and the landlord wants to stop playing the housey game, then this would erode the security from the life of a lot of people - and cost them quite a bit moving about when they don't want to. Without owners, there's less pride on the local area, less sense of community. "Won't get involved, probably only going to be here 6 months" attitude.

People like to belong and at certain points in their lives they like to put down roots. So, the more people that want to and that can afford their own home at sensible multiples, the better for whole swathes of society to be more content.

Being in private rented isn't too great for older/retired people. Would you let your granny move every year once she's over 80?

I am *coughs* ... getting on a bit and it's nice to think that I can just buy a house and know I can buy things for it and start to collect cats and other tat in my dotage. I am lucky, I know I will be able to. If all houses are owned by investors, many more people will go into retirement with uncertainty.

teabelly wrote: »

If rents increase to cover higher mortgages then BTL investors will start soaking up property higher up the price bands rather than concentrating on the cheap stuff at the bottom.

Unlikely. It's a numbers game.

teabelly wrote: »

After a certain point in income it isn't as critical that certain multiples are maintained assuming all other outgoings are equal as that person will have more cash left per month to service a mortgage compared to someone earning much less on a lower multiple with the same fixed costs. It is still coming back to affordability.

Yes, but it's nicer if it is more affordable for more people - and NOT just investors whose borrowing criteria is so different. In recent years, the buyers get a rawer deal than the landlords when it comes to borrowing.

teabelly wrote: »

The median average person earns 20k at worst and most people buy with a partner so the average home at 200k is 5x joint average income. Chances are at that level they won't be FTBs and will be second buyers with at least 1x joint salary in equity anyway. As second time buyers income is likely to be higher as they will be older so it will be more like 3.5 times joint income. Days of the sole breadwinner are gone.

I'd say the median salary is less than that. Unless you are working in a large city and many don't. I've rarely earnt that much (yet).

teabelly wrote: »

It is hard for FTBs but it always has been and always will be. It was hard for me, it was hard for my parents, my friends and everyone else I know that bought. You just learn to deal with it and keep to a tight budget until your wages rise and you are over the hardest first few years. It involves sacrifice and todays young folks just want everything now without having to wait or work for it. People my age aren't always that patient in saving up and doing without either

Yes it has always been hard, but it has got progressively and disproportionately harder as silly multiples to both salaries and liar loans have become the norm.

Not everybody's wages rise. In fact, in the last 10 years, many established workers' wages haven't risen at all.

Yes it does involve sacrifice and another change in recent years has been the cheap credit/everything now and no deposit needed culture, which is now changing.

sm9ai

To be honest I got bored of the "Buy now before its too late" type questions

Thankfully it seems to have dried up completely.

Which tells me more than any other stats ever could!