Jim Rogers followers

wombat42_2

Jim Rogers makes the point that in the last 3 commodity booms the stock market was in a bear market and vice versa. It doesnt seem to be working out that way at present :mad:

wombat42_2

dunker1 wrote: »

I would also imagine that anyone that followed the latest "hot tip" into commodities would have also bought into the decoupling theory and invested in china/emerging markets, must feel very very painful right now, i suppose people will learn lessons through this historic time...dont listen to the so called experts.

The BRIC countries are still growing. Things are still probably good for commodities if you take a 10 year view. There is the concept of supply destruction where there wont be enough companies with the finance to produce anything thus forcing commodity prices up.

dunker1

I will supply you with some more straws to clutch at...lol.

wombat42_2

dunker1 wrote: »

I will supply you with some more straws to clutch at...lol.

Well golds doing OK Innit !

dunker1

now seems a good time to check in and see how the commodity bulls are getting on, supercycle seems to still be missing a wheel.

tradetime

purch wrote: »

Maybe of Interest to anyone who is looking at or invested in the Commodity markets

As mentioned before the U.S. Senate is currently in session taking 'hearings' into among other things 'Energy Market Manipulation and Federal Enforcement Regimes'

Our olde mate George Soros gave testimony before the Senate yesterday on the subject of Market Manipulation and on the effects Index investors are having on the Commodity markets, and the way's that the regulators can lessen their affect on markets....

Madame Chairperson, distinguished members, I am honored to be invited to testify before your committee.

As I understand it, you are seeking an explanation for the recent sharp rise in the oil futures market and in gasoline prices. In particular, you want to know whether this rise constitutes a bubble and, if it is a bubble, whether better regulation could mitigate the harmful consequences. .......................................

http://commerce.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Hearings.Testimony&Hearing_ID=1c9f4e27-376a-49c8-a244-25730c4bbbe8&Witness_ID=5f1794a7-2008-49fc-b92c-d155d5405e10

Cheers for that, hadn't seen it before. Soros is without doubt another clever speculator, but I've listened to several interview / lectures of his recently, and he is somewhat hard to follow at times, he tends to ramble when on his own theories and it isn't uncommon for him to make completely contradictory statements during the course.
For my own part, although the rise in speculation in commodities has many components, I'd say one of the biggest is US$ debasement, or the perception of it. When a country runs up debts on the scale the US and UK are doing there generally is only one of two ways out, default or inflate.

Institutional investors have to make profit, in the pursuit of which there are many asset classes into which they can pour money, however with the US running their printing presses flat out and racking up massive deficits it is quite likely that while you may have made profit in nominal terms in many asset classes, it is wholly possible that in real terms you have made little or nothing due to US$ depreciation.
Thus commodities, which rise and fall in price on supply and demand issues like any other asset class have become much more attractive, since largely priced in US$ they present a hedge against the currency risk. Far more powerful an effect is likely China hedging her US$ reserves, as usual, the Yanks really just don't get it.

It will be interesting to see where this commodity speculation investigation goes, but I'm pretty certain it will provide little benefit to the man in the street.

jon3001

dunker1 wrote: »

now seems a good time to check in and see how the commodity bulls are getting on, supercycle seems to still be missing a wheel.

Did the long-term fundamentals change?

GucciMane

Please don't listen to any people like these 'Jim Rogers'. By the time you have followed their advice, they have already closed their position because it has already been priced in. The markets are manipulated and people work in their own self interest for their own financial gain.

There will be no supercycle in commodities yet. People who believe in commodities are working off the assumptions of 'hyperinflation' and 'dollar collapse' scenario. They are still trying to feed off the QE scenario, whilst it is obvious that money creation is controlled by the private sector through credit and leverage. Central banks only control physical money, which is tiny in relation to the creation in the private sector.

The only way you will see this bull market in commodities is AFTER debt has deleveraged and we are nowhere near yet. By the time this has happened the dollar will have hugely revalued against other assets and commodities will be hugely down.

This will then force government's to monetize all of their debt and thus cause a 'loss of CONFIDENCE'. This is when you will see new highs through hyperinflation. Its too early at the moment and you guys have jumped the gun way too fast!

You cannot have a hyperinflation scenario in a debt deleveraging cycle. If people flee from the dollar to assets then all interest rates will rise and banks will turn off the credit tap! Thus causing a stronger deleverage cycle and stonger revaluation in the dollar!

The only commodity that will benefit currently is gold. Gold is not the best hedge of inflation. Golds real value lies in that it is the historic hedge for currency destabilization.

dunker1

Good ol Jim is a speculator, he uses his 1000s of tv appearances to constantly repeat the same mantra..." farmers cant get loans for fertiliser"...lol....nobody really knows the long term fundamentals for any of these, they just repeat what the likes of JR spouts, we are in an environment never seen before and will be for a very long time.
Jim will always be ok as he is already loaded, sells lots of books and also made a fortune last year shorting investment banks while commodities were plummeting in price as they are doing again.
Good luck to those keeping the faith, could be a long long wait, hope you are still of an age where you are able to enjoy the possible gains when they come.

jon3001

GucciMane wrote: »

Please don't listen to any people like these 'Jim Rogers'.

GucciMane wrote: »

There will be no supercycle in commodities yet. People who believe in commodities are working off the assumptions of 'hyperinflation' and 'dollar collapse' scenario.

This wasn't Jim Roger's assertion though. His basis for the supercycle is long-term supply and demand.


Examples of supply issues:

• The cheap oil is basically gone. New oil is being found but extractions costs are increasing.
• The credit crunch is affecting new projects in mining and farming (as dunker1 points out)
• Investment levels in supply have been generally lacking since when commodities were cheap as there was no money in it.
• Global warming increasing drought and crop failures.

On the demand side you have:

• World population rising from 6.7B now to 9.4B by 2050
• A growing emerging middle class in countries such as China and India. They'll demand better diets and a consumer lifestyle.
• Heavy investment in infrastructure projects in emerging markets such as China.

I suppose a lot is riding on China but I'm not sure I'd bet against that.