Jim Rogers followers

jamesd

purch, yes, parabolic shape is a worry... ignoring that for a bit of momentum playing lost me some money last year. Nothing I didn't make back quickly enough but it's clear "watch out!" sign.

purch

Another interesting and newsworthy story from Bloomberg..........

Ospraie Management LLC, the investment firm run by Dwight Anderson, will close its biggest hedge fund after slumping 38.6 percent this year because of bad bets on commodity stocks.
The New York-based Ospraie Fund fell 26.7 percent in August after a ``substantial sell-off'' in energy, mining and resource equity investments, Anderson said in a letter to investors yesterday.
Losses at Ospraie, once the largest commodity hedge fund firm, underscore how the sudden swing in commodities caught even experienced managers off-guard. The Morgan Stanley Commodity Related Index of 20 mining, energy and agricultural companies declined 13 percent in July and August as the slowing global economy cut demand for raw materials.

``Commodities have been the story du jour, what with China's 1.2 billion population industrializing,'' said Peter Rup, chief investment officer at New York-based Orion Capital Management LLC, which invests in hedge funds.

It's easy to find a trend and ride the train. The problem is, managers don't know when to get off it.''

http://www.bloomberg..com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aIVvdfesmczQ

wombat42_2

purch wrote: »

Another interesting and newsworthy story from Bloomberg..........

Ospraie Management LLC, the investment firm run by Dwight Anderson, will close its biggest hedge fund after slumping 38.6 percent this year because of bad bets on commodity stocks.
The New York-based Ospraie Fund fell 26.7 percent in August after a ``substantial sell-off'' in energy, mining and resource equity investments, Anderson said in a letter to investors yesterday.
Losses at Ospraie, once the largest commodity hedge fund firm, underscore how the sudden swing in commodities caught even experienced managers off-guard. The Morgan Stanley Commodity Related Index of 20 mining, energy and agricultural companies declined 13 percent in July and August as the slowing global economy cut demand for raw materials.

``Commodities have been the story du jour, what with China's 1.2 billion population industrializing,'' said Peter Rup, chief investment officer at New York-based Orion Capital Management LLC, which invests in hedge funds.

It's easy to find a trend and ride the train. The problem is, managers don't know when to get off it.''

http://www.bloomberg..com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aIVvdfesmczQ

Yes but the Marlborough ETF Commodity fund has been remarkably unscathed with a bit a of shorting and money held as cash.

dunker1

I do like to return to this thread from time to time, hows the supercycle getting on ? Anyone retired on the back of it yet ? All i can see is plummeting prices. Surely the global crisis we are facing equates to a major slow down in demand, seems to me this was all based on demand from china and not much else. Wow, even saw Jim on tv recently with his rants about letting all the distressed banks fail and was the first time i have ever heard him not say he was buying any commodities right now. Still i suppose the long term argument will appear, no doubt people still are very confident on the prospects, well good luck if you are.

wombat42_2

This the the latest from the man himself:

http://profit.ndtv.com/2008/10/04200310/Commodity-bull-run-not-over-ye.html

http://english.pravda.ru/world/americas/06-10-2008/106525-jim_rogers-0

I think basically the man is only claiming that commodities will be hugely higher in around 10 years time but in the meantime they will be subject to violent corrections. There is of course no guarantee that Rogers is right but many of his predictions have been accurate before now.

dunker1

So he says there that if the global economy is in perpetual decline then there is no bull run, erm....isnt that what we have right now ?

wombat42_2

dunker1 wrote: »

So he says there that if the global economy is in perpetual decline then there is no bull run, erm....isnt that what we have right now ?

China etc are still growing quite nicely. If it got so bad that China went into recession I guess the game is up. But we are a long long way from that.

More here
http://truellymalaysian.blogspot.com/2008/10/06-10-2008-oil-end-of-bull-run-for-now.html
Nonetheless, the investment bank also said the end was not in sight in the commodity supercycle. It predicted that once economic activity recovered, the demand for oil would strengthen and reassert upward pressures on prices.
“Energy and commodity demand growth is a secular investment theme that probably has decades to run. “Barring massive gains in energy efficiency in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development economies over the next few decades, strong emerging market demand growth will likely require a substantial increase in global oil supply growth,” it said.



http://nbbusinessjournal.canadaeast.com/canadaeast/article/436261

dunker1

Yes China is growing so nicely that its stock market has collapsed from last year and all the mining companies supposedly feeding this building explosion have seen their valuations absolutely plummet in no time whatsoever. Sure i see a few people clinging to the supercycle theory but it does seem more in hope now than any conviction.

dunker1

I would also imagine that anyone that followed the latest "hot tip" into commodities would have also bought into the decoupling theory and invested in china/emerging markets, must feel very very painful right now, i suppose people will learn lessons through this historic time...dont listen to the so called experts.

purch

...dont listen to the so called experts

Yeah.....everyone should have listened to dunker and stuck their money in the mainstream Equity markets !!!!

Just look at that FTSE100, S&P500, Dow30, Nikkei225 fly !!!!!