Jim Rogers followers

dunker1

Just would like to know the current thoughts of people who believe Jim Rogers is some sort of messiah and would have followed his constant bullish rants on the commodity bull run and invested in various etfs in the softs sector. See that sugar, cotton, coffee and wheat are absolutely dropping like stones now. This sector seems so dependant many factors that can easily prove disastrous for investors. And strengthening of the dollar also seems to be a negative factor.
I know these are classed as long term investments with higher risk involved, but i know i would have serious concerns if i had followed the crowd and piled into these.
Thoughts please.

mr_fishbulb

I bought some gold and silver in February (gold at $944 and silver at $18). Both went to record highs, and now are at considerably lower levels than when I bought them.

I've got no problem with that - I know commodities are very volatile and I've had them for less than 2 months.

As you say, (and as with all investments) they are long term. I'm hoping the long term trend will go up. But I'm not worried at the moment.

jon3001

As with any volatile investment, whether it's stocks, commodities, REITs, etc., if you want to minimise your downside then the standard advise is to phase the money in over at least 12 months rather than 'pile in' at what could be a bad time.

Yes - they're long-term investments precisely because of the volatility. You may well get back less tomorrow than what you put in today. But if you're investing for 5 years or more then those risks are minimised.

All this is just standard risk management when it comes to investing. Nothing to do with the 'messiah'.

Jim Rogers has always said himself that he's hopeless at market timing. He takes the long-term view regarding supply and demand factors.

purch

Most of the people who read or listen to the views of Mr Rogers do not have the first clue about the commodity's and markets that he is talking about, and are putting their capital at great risk when they stupidly and slavishly follow his every word as gospel.

The Commodity Markets are not for the amateur or inexperienced investor, especially those without a decent amount to invest, or the ability and knowledge about how best to leverage their positions in both directions.

If you don't know how to invest in them, or to hedge positions effectively, you will be 'whipsawed' into submission long before they get a chance to make anything.

dunker1

Imagine anyone who blindly followed his rants on sugar, coffee and cotton will be sitting on some significant negative performance right now.

purch

Jumping in with both feet, without properly understanding what you are doing.

It's all very well investing for the long term , but personally I like my money to be working for me rather than sitting around losing value.

mr_fishbulb

My gold and silver aren't doing very well either

Bloomberg says it's because the dollar is doing well against the Euro. Not much change in the GBP though - was hoping my holiday might get cheaper to offset the gold loss

Darth_Trader

I was happy enough to read Rogers' book in order to get a general view about how commodities move over longer cycles than equities. However, I wouldn't take anybody's tip on anything without doing substantial research myself. And the problem here is that the serious 'big boys', who use commodities futures to hedge adverse cost movements for business reasons, are certainly going to be infinitely more informed on the state of that particular market than the private investor. In this respect, I definitely agree with Purch.

For what it's worth, I usually delve into 'commodity-type' investments through funds which hold shares in producer companies/miners (eg ML Gold and General, JPM Nat Resources, etc) rather than the single commodity itself - although I have had a go at gold ETFs (before reading Rogers book, I might add). Lost out and ditched them fast.

Browntrout_2

Gold at $890 now might well hit $700 this year....and likewise it might zoom to $1100 and beyond.

I have top sliced all my Gold and Resource funds and invested the proceeds in Martin Currie North American amongst other equity focussed growth funds.

shokadelika

dunker1 wrote: »

Imagine anyone who blindly followed his rants on sugar, coffee and cotton will be sitting on some significant negative performance right now.

Like most investors short-termism rules.:rolleyes:
An interesting take on the "commodity bubble".

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/cpuplava/2008/0409.html

SHOW ME THE BUBBLE!BY CHRIS PUPLAVA [FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]Enough is enough! As most commodities rallied strongly in February and into early March, many in the financial press were calling commodities a “bubble.” What happened to the commodity bubble of 2005, 2006, 2007? Commodities kept climbing the wall of worry. Long gone are the days of $50/barrel oil or $1/gallon gasoline, with the trend in these commodities, and commodities in general, continuing to advance despite being heralded as a bubble.[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]The mistake analysts often make is interpreting the short sprints that commodities undergo as signs that they are in a bubble instead of understanding that bull markets frequently get overheated along the way to their eventual peak. These short-term periods of overextended prices are followed by quick, nasty corrections that shakeout the hot money crowd while the smart money holds fast to their convictions until the fundamentals prove otherwise.[/FONT]

dunker1

Maybe short termism but i reckon some people will be feeling uncomfortable on this, and although many i imagine quote this so called 10-20 year commodity cycle i reckon deep down they were hoping to make some ultra quick gains and possibly even profit take. Been reading about the surplus of sugar in various areas and what with the biofuels backlash i can see why sugar is absolutely dropping like a stone right now as is coffee and cotton.
Still dont worry Jim Rogers says its gonna run and run, oh and he also said gold will hit $3500.....lol.
Good luck everyone