Premium Bond Winner ?

eskbanker

josh33 said:

I'm bad at maths so my logic is most likely flawed, but I've noticed the older bonds have less characters e.g. AB123456 whilst newer bonds are longer e.g. 123AB123456.

Simplifying an example to say there are only 99 bonds numbered 1-99, that would mean 9 bonds have one digit (1-9) and 90 bonds have 2 digits (10-99). Assuming the numbers are drawn randomly, those with 2 digits are far more likely to be drawn. Bonds 1-9 would be drawn 9/99 = 9.1% of the time whilst bonds 10-99 would be drawn 90/99 = 90.9% of the time. Now each bond 1-9 would have 9.1%/9 = 1.01% overall, whilst bonds 10-99 would have 90.9%/90 = 1.01% overall, so in the end all bonds are likely to be picked. But can there be any bias where the newer bonds 10-99 with 2 digits are more likely to win, as more of them are drawn compared to those with 1 digit?

The number of digits has no influence on the prospects of any given bond winning prizes, they're all equal, but obviously any subset of bonds, however defined, should (over the long term) win proportionally to its size....

MX5huggy

ranciduk said:

refluxer said:

ranciduk said:

Does Ns&i usually send you an email confirming if you’ve won a prize?

If you install NS&I's Prize Checker app, you can find out on the day of the draw.  

Yep done that - that’s how I know I won a prize
just found it a bit odd that I’ve not had an email...

I got the email saying that I had a secure message which confirmed the “wins” on 06/01/21 and 03/03/2021. So a few days after the draws actually took place. 

newatc

For the first time since we put a significant sum neither myself or wife won a single penny. We had been averaging £75 a month in the last year so not a pleasant shock!

josh33

Downloaded the full list of winning bond numbers for April... I was so close to 2x £1000 prizes and missed out by single digits!
e.g. my bond range was 428FB343302-428FB343352 and winning bond ended in 353. Darn it!

allsaint78

josh33 said:

Downloaded the full list of winning bond numbers for April... I was so close to 2x £1000 prizes and missed out by single digits!
e.g. my bond range was 428FB343302-428FB343352 and winning bond ended in 353. Darn it!

There is a full list I had no idea? Where is this please? 

RG2015

allsaint78 said:

josh33 said:

Downloaded the full list of winning bond numbers for April... I was so close to 2x £1000 prizes and missed out by single digits!
e.g. my bond range was 428FB343302-428FB343352 and winning bond ended in 353. Darn it!

There is a full list I had no idea? Where is this please? 

https://www.nsandi.com/get-to-know-us/winning-bonds-downloads

tunde10

Won £25 from £46k holding. 

wiseonesomeofthetime

Nil this month, so I end this tax year with a yield of 0.97% tax free.

I estimate that, given I will be paying tax on interest this financial year, if I had put the same funds in an easy access account, I would have earned something in between the range of 0.93% to 0.96% net, this term.

Ho hum

Eco_Miser

josh33 said:

I'm bad at maths so my logic is most likely flawed, but I've noticed the older bonds have less characters e.g. AB123456 whilst newer bonds are longer e.g. 123AB123456.

Simplifying an example to say there are only 99 bonds numbered 1-99, that would mean 9 bonds have one digit (1-9) and 90 bonds have 2 digits (10-99). Assuming the numbers are drawn randomly, those with 2 digits are far more likely to be drawn. Bonds 1-9 would be drawn 9/99 = 9.1% of the time whilst bonds 10-99 would be drawn 90/99 = 90.9% of the time. Now each bond 1-9 would have 9.1%/9 = 1.01% overall, whilst bonds 10-99 would have 90.9%/90 = 1.01% overall, so in the end all bonds are likely to be picked. But can there be any bias where the newer bonds 10-99 with 2 digits are more likely to win, as more of them are drawn compared to those with 1 digit?

Older bonds have their numbers extended to the length of new bonds by putting zeros at the front. So all bonds have the same number of digits and all bonds have an equal chance of being drawn, every time.

Primrose

Nil this month for both of us !