Premium Bond Winner ?

eskbanker

longleggedhair said:

I’ve had nothing for two months on £31,000 but in the December draw I had 5 x £25. Before that it was always generally one prize a month. Interesting to see the number of people now, even with full holdings that are winning zero. I am considering going elsewhere.

Since December the chances of a zero month with a maximum holding are 23.5% (over 40% for £31K), so on average nearly a quarter of months will be blank even with £50K, but your £125 return from £31K over the last three months (about 1.6% annualised) is well above average.

Out of curiosity, where would you put the money if not in PBs?

SallySunshine

Borrowed 4K from PB to fund a fixed bond, returned it, and won £25 on the new number first drawing..
also 2x25s on old ones.

longleggedhair

eskbanker said:

longleggedhair said:

I’ve had nothing for two months on £31,000 but in the December draw I had 5 x £25. Before that it was always generally one prize a month. Interesting to see the number of people now, even with full holdings that are winning zero. I am considering going elsewhere.

Since December the chances of a zero month with a maximum holding are 23.5% (over 40% for £31K), so on average nearly a quarter of months will be blank even with £50K, but your £125 return from £31K over the last three months (about 1.6% annualised) is well above average.

Out of curiosity, where would you put the money if not in PBs?

Thank you for that information. It’s certainly an eye opener as to how low the prize fund has fallen that even on a full holding one can expect to get nothing for 1 in 4 months. As for where else there is nowhere, as they well know.

flow2

We have 80k in total, I have 30k, in mine, and haven’t had anything, since October which was 1 x £25, my husband, has the 50k, and has had at least 2x £25, every month, for over a year, this month, I got nothing but he got 2 x £25 + £500, well pleased.
his are in two blocks, 40k & 10k, if it makes a difference, I don’t think so.

pbcpdeveloper

eskbanker said:

jeffdavies said:

My thoughts are, he has more chances of winning because he has one whole block whereas mine are for example, blocks of £10,000, £500, £15,000.    To test, we have today withdrawn all of the money and closed both Premium Bond accounts, with the . intention of buying a whole £50,000 block at the end of this month. I am aware that my money will not then be in the draw until the beginning of April but I live in hope :-)

Your thoughts are wrong but you're certainly not the first to believe that - the chances are the same regardless of block size.  There will presumably be an element of confirmation bias once you're back in the draws again - if your luck does improve then you'll doubtless attribute this to having a single block, even though the odds won't actually have changed at all, such is the nature of randomness!

I have 50k made up of 23 blocks of varying sizes, I usually get 1 - 2 wins per month. I had 2 consecutive months where I didn't win anything, on the next month I won £150, so it evened itself out again.

Ken68

£55O this month on max holding..last 12 months 2.25%.

redpete

annabanana82 said:

I have a block of £49,7
00 and I've had several months in the last 16 months without wins so don't think there is any advantage to having one large block.
Trouble with changing them is you'll never know what you would have won had you of left as is

Holding them in a block makes no difference but your experience is not a reason for believing that.

George_Michael

3 wins of £25 on £50k holding. It was £25 last month and £25 in December. (All bonds purchased in November 2020).

losgiganteskid

Had £100 x 1 win this month, thought I would have a punt on yesterdays Lotto and won another £212.  I had been getting itchy sensation in the palm of my hand, must have been a sign!!

VWPolecat

I wonder what PBs will do when we go into negative interest rates."You have won we have not reduced your investment by £25"