House Price Crash Poll Press Release

MSE_Martin

The following is the text of a press release put out by MoneySavingExpert.com

https://www.MoneySavingExpert.com
Free To Use, Ad Free, Unbiased

News Release
22 October 2004

Half the country believes house prices will fall over the next year
House prices set to drop by 3.9% next year says the UK public

A new poll of 2,200 users of https://www.moneysavingexpert.com, an independent consumer finance help website, reveals public sentiment has grown increasingly pessimistic over house prices. The survey found those polled predicting house prices would fall by 3.9% during the next twelve months.  This is a gloomier outlook than in June of this year, when respondents to an identical poll were expecting a drop of 3.2%.

The findings:

•      50% believe that house prices will begin to fall next year, compared to only 29% who still expect house prices to increase

•      In a site poll of July 2003, 56% of respondents correctly believed house prices would rise over the next year

•      One in five (20%) expect house prices to crash by more than 10%.  In July 2003, 15% predicted a rise of more than 20%

•      17% believe there will be no real change
The moneysavingexpert.com poll is one of the largest ever of the general public on house prices, giving a different perspective from the normal industry opinions of mortgage lenders, estate agents or surveyors.
According to the creator of the site Martin Lewis, the swing in sentiment could be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Martin Lewis, Money Saving Expert, comments:

“The public’s sentiment is very likely to have a material impact on house prices.  If they believe house prices will drop, this may well be self-fulfilling. Those who believe in a price plummet are far less likely to enter the housing market at the moment – this will cause a decrease in demand and push down prices.  In the past people have seen putting money in bricks and mortar as a ‘safe’ investment, but with confidence wavering people are finally beginning to appreciate that putting money in property involves a real risk.”

How the findings compare to other surveys:

•      The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) survey found that in the three months to September house prices fell at their steepest rate since 1995 (https://www.rics.org)

•      Figures from Nationwide for September indicated “subdued” growth for the second consecutive month, with house prices rising by just 0.2% (https://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi)

•      Halifax found that house prices had risen by 1.4% in September, reversing a fall in August (https://www.hbosplc.com/economy/housingresearch.asp)

Pal

A press release from MSE! Next thing you know Martin will be appearing in newpapers! Who knows, could lead on to bigger things like TV!

Trevor McDonald, here we come (as soon as Martin has unlearned all his multi-syllable words)!

BTman

BUMP:rolleyes:

lynzpower

cor youve gone into the vaults for this one havent you BTman!

BTman

I certainly did

thesaint

imported_admin wrote: »

<snip>

Martin Lewis, Money Saving Expert, comments:

“The public’s sentiment is very likely to have a material impact on house prices. !If they believe house prices will drop, this may well be self-fulfilling. Those who believe in a price plummet are far less likely to enter the housing market at the moment – this will cause a decrease in demand and push down prices. !In the past people have seen putting money in bricks and mortar as a ‘safe’ investment, but with confidence wavering people are finally beginning to appreciate that putting money in property involves a real risk.”

<snip>

What have house prices done since 2004

House prices only go up.:j

izzybusy23

WHY DOES THE DATE SAY OCTOBER 2004???????

Gorgeous_George

Low interest rates = high house prices. Crazy isn't it?

Why should prices follow interest rates so closely? Cars don't double in price when IRs are halved. Why should houses?

Why are the public so keen to spend as much as they can on a house that will only met their needs for a year or two.

My tip. Only buy a house that will meet your needs for 10 years.

Good spot BTMan.



GG

A_Fool_&_His_Borrowed_Mon

thesaint wrote: »

What have house prices done since 2004

House prices only go up.:j

Whilst the house value stays mostly the same.

Look to Zimbabwe for higher prices information.

A_Fool_&_His_Borrowed_Mon

jackdoor wrote: »

When demand outstrips supply and the latter is affordable (or reachable by choice) it remains a seller's market............here endeth a pretty basic economic lesson.

Demand Outstrips supply. ho-hum.

Should be: SPECULATIVE demand exceeding supply (^"speculative"- Comprende?? )

If bidders at an auction were given a million cash each to be used only to bid on some plentiful old antique type(and nothing else), prices of that antique type would rocket, and so would speculative demand, hoping to use it to make a fast buck buy selling it on later after a quick price rise.

Likewise with the house market.

Only, they haven't been given cash, they've been given as much debt as they can get, funded by a rapid growth of money in circulation (money as debt), courtesy of the Yen carry trade.

Here endeth a pretty advanced economic lesson.

A_Fool_&_His_Borrowed_Mon

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

Why are the public so keen to spend as much as they can on a house that will only met their needs for a year or two.

Because of people hoping to use property as a get-rich-quick scheme.

(Note that this is caused by the speculative buyers bidding prices up, people who buy it to live in have no choice as they're held to ransom by an absurd market.)