House Price Crash Poll Press Release

mystic_trev

Ahhhh what a difference three years with hindsight. I was probably one of those 'Pessimists' who voted!

Are we nearly there yet? Probably!

Well found BT Man

thesaint

izzybusy23 wrote: »

WHY DOES THE DATE SAY OCTOBER 2004???????

It is possible to resurrect old (and best forgotten Martin?;) ) threads by posting a new reply.

I suspect in 3 years time there will be similar ones resurrected showing all the house price crash threads that are started daily on this site now.

Hindsight is 20/20. :cool:

Generali

thesaint wrote: »

I suspect in 3 years time there will be similar ones resurrected showing all the house price crash threads that are started daily on this site now.

Possibly, although according to The Economist today (should have been yesterday but for the postal strike) the global credit boom is in serious danger of blowing up.

If credit isn't available, there aren't that many cash buyers that are going to be able and prepared to continue bidding up prices.

thesaint wrote: »

Hindsight is 20/20.

We'll see where we are in 2010.

WHEN the man approaching you is wearing boxing gloves, it makes sense to duck. The crisis in the American subprime-mortgage market was clearly visible months ago. Too many homebuyers with a poor or non-existent payment record were lent too much money. But when the rating agencies on July 10th finally got round to acknowledging the problem, investors were clobbered. Shares briefly wobbled and the dollar sank. Swap spreads, a measure of risk aversion, reached their highest point since 2003. Credit derivatives, where much of the financial innovation in recent years has taken place, recoiled.....

The current fear is not so much that the housing market could drive America into recession, although that could still happen. The worry is more that credit conditions may get tighter. The spread paid by higher-risk European firms has increased by almost a percentage point since mid-June. Investors are shying away from some loans being offered to finance leveraged buy-outs. A slowdown in such private equity-driven bids would hit the stockmarket.

Richard Bernstein, a Merrill Lynch strategist, says excessive lending has been fuelling the growth in financial markets in recent years. But he fears that now liquidity is drying up. That means no cushion when the punch lands.

It's worth noting that falling house prices have happened despite a strong US economy rather than because of a weak one. Bubbles burst, they don't need the wider economy to collapse for it to happen.

thesaint

thesaint wrote: »

I suspect in 3 years time there will be similar ones resurrected showing all the house price crash threads that are started daily on this site now.

Generali wrote: »

Possibly, although according to The Economist today (should have been yesterday but for the postal strike) the global credit boom is in serious danger of blowing up.

Sorry, I should clarify.:o

What I mean is that there are some very strong predictions being voiced about house prices recently.

These mainly are

(a) House Price Crash.

(b) Small, but significant drops/rises.

(c) Stabilisation.

Two of these groups will prove with hindsight to be wrong.

I didn't mean to infer that Martin :money: will be proved wrong(again).

Gorgeous_George

Many of those waiting for prices to fall will not be able to afford the new interest rates.

The problem of affordability will only be solved by providing more houses or reducing the population.

Making better use of the current housing stock just won't happen. Older people will stay in their 3 or 4 bedroom family homes because there is little incentive to trade down. All these lovely flats would suit the elderly quit well if only there was an incentive.



GG

meanmachine_2

From 2004-2005, house prices in my area DID fall by around 4%.

In 2005-6, when banks changed their lending criteria they went back up again.

What's the point being made here?